2026-09-07 ｜ In-depth Interpretation ｜ Written by: Yan Yu

On September 7, ETH once again stood above the $2500 mark, currently consolidating around 2513. Looking at the longer time frame, the path of this market is very clear: it started from the low of 1858.95 on August 13, rising all the way to the high of 2566.26 (an increase of about 38%). After the non-farm data was released, it retraced to 2355.56, and now it has reclaimed the 2500 level. However, while it is easy to rise, whether it can stay steady is another matter— at the 4-hour level it is still adjusting, and the smaller levels have just recovered. Coupled with Jiang Zhuoer’s position on liquidation, the dormant BTC movements, and other news, market divergence is considerable. This article analyzes the current situation of ETH.

01 Market Status: Reclaimed 2500, Multi-Cycle Signals Diverging

First, let's look at the chart. At the 4-hour level, ETH rose from the low of 1858.95 (on August 13) to the high of 2566.26, an increase of about 38%. Subsequently, the MACD displayed a bullish crossover at a high position (DIF -3.85, DEA 0.17, MACD histogram -8.04), entering a stage of adjustment and digestion in the larger cycle. The current price is 2513.56, about 2% down from the high.

However, the 1-hour and 15-minute levels have already begun to recover: the 1-hour MACD histogram is 10.81, and the 15-minute MACD histogram is 4.05, both in a golden cross state. In the short term, it has strengthened from the low of 2355.56 (the low reached after the non-farm data). After reclaiming the 2500 mark, the 15-minute level low of 2443.61 is gradually rising, indicating a shift in short-term focus upwards.

In terms of position, the upper pressure point is 2566.26, and the secondary pressure is 2548.37; below, 2500 is a psychological level, and 2443.61/2355.56 are two levels of support. The market is seeking a new balance between “previous high resistance + key support.”

02 This 38% Increase: What Pushed It Up?

The increase from 1858.95 to 2566.26, representing a 38% rise, is not without foundation. Breaking it down, there are three layers of logic:

• Valuation Recovery: In mid-August, ETH was in an oversold range, with 1858.95 being a low point reached due to panic selling. The price is returning above the EMA120 (2273.70), indicating a need for recovery;

• Macro Expectations: Before the non-farm data release, the market had strong expectations for interest rate cuts, and the loosening of interest rate expectations directly elevated the valuation of high Beta assets;

• Capital Inflow: Previous continuous net inflows into ETFs, along with large inflows into compliant exchanges like Coinbase, provided additional capital for the rebound.

However, it is important to note that in these three layers of logic, the first two have been partially corrected by the non-farm data— the probability of interest rate hikes has risen to over 60%, and the reversal of interest rate expectations is the macro context for the MACD bearish crossover at the 4-hour level. What still supports the price is the lingering warmth of the valuation recovery and the inertia of capital.

03 News: Warnings and Good News Occurring Simultaneously

This week's news has presented an intertwining of bullish and bearish signals, worth breaking down one by one:

• Warning Signal: Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Liebi Mining Pool, openly expressed concerns about market correction risks and has liquidated all BTC holdings— this statement from a prominent figure in the mining industry reflects some long-term capital's caution regarding current price levels;

• On-chain Movement: 600 BTC that had been dormant for 16 years have been moved, valued at approximately $48 million (composed of block rewards from 12 blocks mined in March 2010, with the investigation finding no link to Satoshi Nakamoto)— the awakening of ancient coins may provoke short-term emotional disturbances;

• Platform Risk: WOO X users have experienced irregularities in withdrawals (ZachXBT disclosed that some transactions were canceled, and the platform has been acquired by FusionX Digital), with WOO dropping by 6.76% in a single day— trust events at exchanges should be monitored, but this is an isolated case, with limited impact on mainstream coins;

• Macro Good News: The Chinese Ministry of Finance injected $54 billion into state-owned banks and insurance companies, issuing 300 billion yuan in special government bonds to support 8 central financial enterprises in replenishing capital— the marginal loosening of the global liquidity environment presents potential support for risk asset valuations;

• Institutional Allocation: Jane Street ($4.4 million), UBS ($7.5 million), and Bank of Montreal ($6.7 million) disclosed their holdings in the HYPE ETF through 13F filings— institutions are still allocating crypto assets through compliant channels.

Together, these signals point to the same conclusion: capital has not left the market but is undergoing repricing— capital is realizing profits at high levels while new capital is stepping in after corrections, making the increasing divergence normal.

04 What to Watch Next?

After ETH reclaimed 2500, four groups of variables should be closely tracked:

• Key Positions: Whether the previous high of 2566.26 can be challenged again, whether the 2500 mark can be firmly maintained, and whether the two levels of support at 2443.61/2355.56 are effective will determine if this repair phase is a rebound or a reversal;

• Long-term Structure: Whether the 4-hour MACD can form a new golden cross and whether the DIF can cross above the zero line will signal the end of the larger cycle adjustment; until then, the market should be treated with caution;

• Macro Variables: Changes in the interest rate hike probabilities for September, the direction of August CPI data, and whether the liquidity spillover from Chinese monetary injections reaches the crypto market;

• Capital Movements: Whether the capital flow into ETF/ETN can continue, and if there are any further signals from on-chain movements of miners and whales (dormant BTC and market sentiment after Jiang Zhuoer's liquidation statement).

ETH has completed a full cycle of “oversold recovery — expectation-driven — data correction” from 1859 to 2566 and back to 2500. The current question is whether the new upward movement will require new fuel— whether macro liquidity will continue to loosen or if capital will flow back, determining whether ETH returns to its previous highs or continues to oscillate. No predictions, only responses, maintaining respect for the market. SafeX:Annxvvc

The above content is based on public market data and information, purely for reference, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, please make rational judgments and be aware of the risks.

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