2026-09-04 ｜ In-depth Interpretation ｜ Written by: Misty Rain

Tonight at 20:30, the non-farm payroll data was released. The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 162,000 in August, exceeding expectations of 56,000, and the unemployment rate of 4.1% met expectations—indicating stronger data, leading to a cooling of the market's expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts. BTC/ETH experienced a short-term plunge: ETH fell below the $2500 level, and BTC retreated from a high of $82,279.9 to around $79,420, with a 24-hour decline of about 3.5%. Tonight's article breaks down what the market is actually trading after the non-farm data release.

01 How to Read the Data: Employment is Stronger, Rate Cut Expectations Have Been "Educated"

First, let's look at the data itself: The non-farm employment in August increased by 162,000, surpassing the market expectation of 56,000 (expected about 106,000); the unemployment rate recorded at 4.1% is in line with expectations; by sector, the employment in the restaurant industry increased by 59,000, higher than the average monthly increase of 12,000 over the past 12 months. This is a "not weak, even slightly strong" employment report—showing no signs of deterioration in the labor market, but rather a mild expansion.

For interest rate expectations, the implications of this result are clear: stronger employment means the economy can withstand high-interest rates better than expected, thus reducing the necessity for aggressive rate cuts. Previously, the market had been quite optimistic about rate cuts in September; after this data release, traders need to recalibrate the interest rate paths—and as cryptocurrencies are the most sensitive high Beta assets to interest rates, the loosening expectation of the pricing anchor was pulled away, leading to natural price pressure.

02 How the Market Moves: BTC Plummets, ETH Falls Below 2500

The market reacted quickly. BTC fell from a high of $82,279.9 to around $79,420 on an hourly basis, with a decline of about 3.5%. The MACD shows a death cross at a high position (DIF 732.9, DEA 843.1, MACD bar -220.4), and the trading volume significantly increased during the plunge—this is a typical event-driven sell-off, with both bulls and bears making a dramatic shift at the moment the data was released.

As for ETH, the price fell below the $2500 level (current report on OKX $2505.42), showing a broad fluctuation between $2355.56—$2548.37 on an hourly basis. Although the MACD bar is positive (DIF -1.21, DEA -4.20, MACD bar 5.98), short-term momentum has been clearly interrupted by the data. Currently, BTC's market capitalization ratio has decreased to 58.60%, with a 24-hour trading volume of $57.8 billion and a circulating market cap of $1.6 trillion.

In terms of positions, it's worth noting: BTC's upper resistance is $82,279.9, while the lower support is $76,204.5; for ETH, the upper resistance is $2548.37, while the lower support is $2355.56. After the event impact, the market returned to pricing within the range defined by these positions.

03 Fuel for Rebound: Initially Insufficient, Tonight Another Piece Is Withdrawn

Looking at the longer term, this upward move from $76,204.5 to $82,279.9 had a weak capital structure to begin with—previously, there was around $2.01 billion in liquidations across the network over 24 hours, of which short liquidations totaled $1.7 billion, accounting for over 80%, indicating that the increase was largely driven by short covering rather than a significant influx of new funds. The characteristic of this type of market is: rebound is quick, but highly sensitive to "expectation fulfillment." Tonight’s non-farm data being stronger than expected directly corrected the narrative of "aggressive rate cuts," effectively pulling away one of the fuels that sustained the rebound.

Another signal worth noting is the direction of hot money: MEME tokens on the Robinhood Chain increased by over a thousand times within 24 hours, reaching a market cap that briefly exceeded $130 million (currently reverted to $115 million), with a trading volume of up to $77.8 million—speculative funds are seeking short-term gains in highly elastic assets, while the price anchors of mainstream assets remain tightly tied to macro data. Additionally, Binance will suspend U.S. stock trading services from September 6, 02:50—06:00 (system upgrade), and geopolitical disturbances like the Iranian attack on U.S. military bases have led to cautious short-term market sentiment.

04 What's Next to Watch?

The release of the non-farm data does not mean the end of suspense; we need to closely track four sets of variables:

• Subsequent signals regarding the interest rate path: statements from Federal Reserve officials (previously Waller mentioned that if August inflation is strong, a rate hike in September will be considered), and whether the August CPI data can continue the trend of being "below expectations";

• Gains and losses at key positions: The low point of $76,204.5 and the previous high of $82,279.9 for BTC, as well as the low point of $2355.56 and the previous high of $2548.37 for ETH, are the boundaries of pricing within the range;

• ETF capital flows: whether the continuous net inflow over the past six trading days can be maintained and whether there are signs of large outflows in a single day;

• Volume and price structure: if volume expands during the plunge, subsequent stability of price with shrinking volume would indicate that the event impact is gradually being digested.

With non-farm data released, the suspense has not vanished; it has just taken on a different form. The market is always pricing expectations—when expectations are corrected by data, prices will follow suit. No predictions, only responses, and maintain respect for the market.

The above content is based on logical deduction from public market trends and macro information, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, please judge rationally and pay attention to risks.

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