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Bitcoin price returns above $80,000, BTC bulls and bears confront at $83K
Overnight, the dollar index fell below 99, and the dollar against the yen plummeted to around 155. Federal Reserve Governor Waller signaled "if inflation continues to cool, I lean towards maintaining interest rates unchanged in September," prompting the market to quickly buy a breathing right, with BTC at one point rising over 5%, reclaiming the $80,000 mark, peaking close to $82,500.
However, traders did not have a unanimous bullish view, with most considering $81,000 to $84,000 as the most important resistance area currently. Wealthmanager believes that unless BTC clearly breaks and stabilizes above $83,000, it is not advisable to chase long positions at the current level. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Liebit mining pool, chose to sell all BTC positions at $82,050, believing that the current consolidation period is still short and that the resistance at $83,000 to $84,000 has not been fully digested, predicting it may later return to the $70,000 to $72,000 range or continue oscillating between $76,000 and $82,000. Additionally, Fidelity provides a more cautious medium to long-term perspective, stating that some investors are still observing whether the "four-year cycle" continues to be valid. Based on the last bear market bottom in November 2022, the next bear market bottom theoretically may fall around November 2026, but Fidelity emphasizes that cycles are not precise and cannot be used for mechanical timing.
On-chain data also poured cold water on this round of price increases, BTC encountered a lot of trapped positions near the $80,000 mark. At the same price position, the amount of chips in profit is greater than in May, indicating that the higher it goes, the more people may want to sell. After the summer adjustment of chips, the cost basis of short-term holders is concentrated around $71,000, with resistance at $83,000 to $86,000 being the heavy supply area from long-term holders, while $62,000 to $65,000 below has been the previously concentrated accumulation bottom. CryptoQuant also warned that Bitcoin appears very strong, but new buying power is still not strong enough. This 24% surge was largely driven by short covering rather than new spot demand; the 365-day moving average is around $82,300, and only effectively closing above this line would resemble a "bull market confirmation"; otherwise, it is still only a strong rebound.
Technical divergences are widening, with Sykodelic believing that after BTC approaches the 50-week moving average, it often oscillates around that position for 4 to 6 weeks, but the larger direction has improved and a pullback need not be overly pessimistic; Michael Nadeau focuses on the upcoming golden crossover, believing that if the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average and BTC breaks above about $81,000's 50-week moving average, the market may first be cleaned out by "false moves" before charging towards above $90,000.
Looking ahead, the most important macro node for Bitcoin is the U.S. CPI on September 11. If inflation cools, the probability of the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates increases, giving BTC the opportunity to continue challenging $83,000 to $86,000; if CPI is hot, the dollar and interest rates may rebound, and BTC's gains may be quickly reversed.
Today's Highlights:
Opinion (OPN) unlocks about 39.25 million tokens, valued at approximately $2.2 million
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, TRUMP, CHIP
Bitcoin spot ETF: +$731 million
Ethereum spot ETF: +$141 million
Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies: DASH up 25.7%, ZEC up 22.59%, SPX up 20.3%, LIT up 18.1%, ENA up 12.7%.
Futures continue to breathe, Lululemon plummets 18% overnight
The three major U.S. stock index futures continue with a warm sentiment, with Dow futures basically flat, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.42%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.1%.
BIT night market data shows funds are still betting on short-term recovery in semiconductors, with Micron Technology rising 0.83% in the night market, SanDisk up 1.33%, NVIDIA up 0.65%, Broadcom up 0.80%, and Intel up 0.94%; Philadelphia semiconductor ETF up 1.03%, three times long semiconductor SOXL up 2.87%.
Crypto-related night trading, however, saw profit-taking, with Strategy falling 1.83%, IBIT down 1.17%, Circle down 1.17%, contrasting sharply with the overnight surge in stocks, indicating that before BTC approaches the resistance zone of $82,000 to $83,000, some funds opted to lock in profits first.
AMC becomes the sudden focus of sentiment stocks overnight, surging over 20% at one point. AMC CEO Adam Aron publicly demanded Robinhood to stop trading AMC stock tokens, stating that related tokenized stocks are critical to the company's survival. While the market is dealing with trading law conflicts, it is also speculating on the MEME project based on AMC on the Robinhood Chain, which has a market value exceeding $100 million and a 24-hour increase of over a thousand times.
Furthermore, Lululemon's stock plummeted 18% overnight, as the company lowered its full-year performance forecast, expecting revenue to decline 5% to 7% year-on-year in fiscal year 2026, with earnings per share guidance lowered to $9.48 to $9.73. "Big short" Michael Burry called Lululemon a "master of distraction" and stated he would continue to buy if the stock price falls below $100.
Waller rescues risk appetite, crypto concept stocks rise over 10%
Last night, the core theme in the U.S. stock market was the recovery of risk appetite after the easing of interest rate expectations, but not all tech stocks rose. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September fell from approximately 63% to 50%, with Polymarket pricing even lower at about 41%. Waller stated that if inflation continues to cool, he leans towards maintaining interest rates unchanged in September. Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, believes that the Fed’s September vote might come close to "6 votes to maintain, 5 votes for a rate hike, 1 vote undecided," and Powell may hold the key vote.
AI application software and crypto-related stocks performed outstandingly, while the hardware sector showed significant differentiation at high levels. Snowflake's earnings exceeded expectations, boosting data infrastructure sentiment, while Palantir expanded its cooperation with PwC to further strengthen the narrative of enterprise AI implementation; Tesla sparked autonomous driving trades with the launch of Cybercab. Wall Street opinions generally believe that the market has moved from the "is there AI demand?" phase to the second phase of "can demand support valuations?" Goldman Sachs' related strategists warned that valuation peaks might have passed, and future verification of spending durability is necessary.
BIT reminds that U.S. stocks still face dual constraints of September seasonal pressure and high valuations in the short term. Over the past 25 years, the S&P 500 index has averaged a decline of 1.1% in September, and in midterm election years, the average drop expands to 1.7%; however, against the backdrop of persistent inflation and expanding debt with limited alternative assets, stocks, gold, and Bitcoin remain core assets for preserving purchasing power. If a phased pullback occurs in September or early October, it may instead create a more favorable reallocation window.
Crypto concept stocks had the biggest surge last night, according to BIT US stocks data, with Strategy up 17.56%, Robinhood up 16.57%, Coinbase up 10.14%, Circle up 16.46%, reclaiming above $100; BitMine up 14.03%. Morgan Stanley upgraded Robinhood's rating from "hold" to "buy," raising the target price from $124 to $150; Piper Sandler also raised its target price from $135 to $145, citing that after the start of the football season, projected market revenue may continue to increase.
Mining companies also generally surged over 10%, with Canaan up 27.82%, American Bitcoin up 18.68%, Riot up 14.43%, Cipher Digital up 13.44%, MARA up 11.55%, CleanSpark up 11%, Bitdeer up about 11%.
Japanese and South Korean tech stocks lead the Asia-Pacific market, Hong Kong stocks rebound, A-shares open high and go low
The Asia-Pacific market took over the rebound sentiment from the U.S. stock market, with Waller's dovish remarks lowering the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, leading South Korean and Japanese tech stocks, semiconductor stocks to strengthen first, indicating a significant recovery in risk appetite.
The KOSPI in South Korea rose 1.64%, and the won against the dollar reached its highest level since July 2025. The rise in the South Korean market was mainly driven by semiconductors and tech stocks, with major players in memory chips like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix receiving funding support. The Bank of Korea indicated that with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix expanding domestic capacity, South Korea's advantage in the memory chip sector may continue to grow. By 2028, new chip factories may increase South Korea's monthly wafer production capacity by about 600,000, providing medium to long-term support for the semiconductor sector.
The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 1.3%, and the Topix index slightly increased by 0.03%. The overnight rebound of tech stocks in the U.S. led to a warming of stocks related to AI, semiconductors, and SoftBank Group in Japan. The core variables in the Japanese market remain the yen and the Bank of Japan, with the yen continuing to strengthen, and expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in September heating up, while Japan's foreign exchange affairs chief, Jun Mimura, once again emphasized that the policy stance in the currency market has not changed. Japanese long-term bond yields fell slightly, with 20-year and 30-year yields both decreasing by about 10 basis points. JPMorgan previously warned that if the dollar against the yen falls below 155, about 16 trillion to 17 trillion yen in short positions could be forced to close, theoretically pushing the dollar against the yen further down to the 142 to 146 range.
China’s A-shares opened higher but trended lower throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite index closing down 0.30%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.79%, and the ChiNext index down 0.78%. Funds rotated out of AI hardware and semiconductors into pork, yellow wine, digital currency, and film short dramas. Pork stocks became the dominant theme in A-shares, with the average price of live pigs nationwide rebounding nearly 17% from June's low, with several stocks like New Hope, Luo Niu Shan, and Zhenghong Technology hitting daily limits; Huayuan Securities believes that recent improvements in supply pressure and better demand have supported pork prices. Guosen Securities predicts that high cost production cash flow pressure remains, and in the coming months, breeding capacity may accelerate elimination, with pork prices expected to start a cyclical reversal in 2027.
Hong Kong stocks performed significantly better than A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 2.27%. Tech stocks broadly rose, with Meituan and Baidu both up about 5%; Xiaomi up about 4%; Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Tencent rose nearly 3%. Short covering has also boosted sentiment, with the scale of short selling on Alibaba and Tencent significantly shrinking from August highs, and the market is beginning to debate whether Hong Kong stocks have entered a phased stabilization window.
AI applications and smart driving concepts in the Hong Kong market continue to be active, with MINIMAX cumulatively rising over 24% this week, previously Saudi HUMAIN built an Arabic large model based on MiniMax M3; smart driving concepts such as Hesai, Pony.ai, and WeRide are strengthening, driven by news from Tesla's Cybercab.
Policy support is also provided in the AI direction, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology releasing the "Support Plan for AI Startups in Small and Medium Enterprises (2026-2028)", proposing to strengthen inclusive computing power supply and reduce thresholds for AI entrepreneurship. This is a medium-term positive for AI applications, small and medium enterprise services, and computing power ecology.
Upcoming Focus:
September 4 (Friday) at 20:30 U.S. August Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings: This week's number one global market data, the market expects about 55,000 to 58,000 new nonfarm jobs, with an unemployment rate maintaining at 4.1%; if employment and wages are stronger than expected, it will reinforce September's interest rate hike trading, leading to a rise in the dollar and short-term Treasury yields, putting pressure on Nasdaq, gold, and long-duration growth stocks; if non-farm data shows a significant weakness, it will weaken Waller's hawkish pricing, leading to potential rebounds in U.S. Treasuries, gold, and tech stocks.
September 6 (Sunday) OPEC+ Seven Nations Monthly Meeting: The meeting will assess the implementation status of the September production increase of 188,000 barrels per day and global crude oil supply and demand. If U.S.-Iran conflicts do not de-escalate, OPEC+ rhetoric will directly impact Brent and WTI risk premiums; if they signal to maintain production discipline or cautious production increases, oil prices may find support, otherwise, it may suppress the gains of energy stocks.
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