BTC Returns to $81,000, Rate Hike Expectations Cool📈

Bitcoin has regained its position above $81,000.

In the past 24 hours, BTC has risen about 3%, and market sentiment has noticeably improved.

The most noteworthy variable in this rebound is not merely the technical aspect, but the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in September are clearly cooling.

Previously, the market had bet on a nearly 66% probability of a 25 basis point hike in September, which has now dropped to about 50%.

Meanwhile, ETH has risen about 2%, SOL has risen about 3%, and mainstream crypto assets are generally rebounding.

However, the standout performer is not BTC.

It is Zcash.

ZEC has increased by over 15% in the past 24 hours, clearly outperforming most mainstream assets.

This indicates that, while macro expectations are changing, there is still a very noticeable differentiation in capital within the crypto market.

Why Did BTC Resurge to $81,000?

One of the biggest pressures on BTC in recent times has been the market's increasingly rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike.

If the Federal Reserve re-enters a rate hike cycle, it means liquidity in dollars may tighten further.

For a high-volatility risk asset like BTC, rising rate expectations generally imply higher capital costs and lower risk appetite.

Therefore, when the probability of a rate hike in September fell from nearly 66% to around 50%, the market pressure naturally eased.

In simple terms:

Previously, the market was trading on "the Federal Reserve may further tighten."

Now it has started to trade on "a rate hike may not occur."

The change in expectations alone is enough to drive a rebound in risk assets.

This is also an important background for BTC's return above $81,000.

📌 If you wish to further track the key support and pressure points for BTC daily, you can follow the public account "Bitcoin Spring" for ongoing insights into market hotspots and logic.

But Why Did Rate Hike Expectations Suddenly Cool?

Here, it is important to note one issue:

A decline in market expectations does not mean the Federal Reserve has confirmed there will be no rate hike.

The real determination of the policy direction in September will still rely on upcoming U.S. economic data.

Especially regarding employment and inflation.

If the U.S. job market shows clear signs of cooling, it may indicate that the economy's ability to withstand high interest rates could decline.

At the same time, if CPI continues to decline, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates will also diminish.

Conversely, if employment remains strong and inflation rises again, rate hike expectations may resurge.

Thus, the current market is essentially waiting for new data to validate the policy direction.

Why Has Zcash Suddenly Become the Market Focus?

Compared to BTC and ETH, Zcash's increase this time is more worthy of observation.

ZEC has risen over 15% in the past 24 hours, clearly outperforming mainstream crypto assets.

From a market structure perspective, this indicates that funds have not simply flowed back into the entire crypto market.

It seems more like:

After macro pressures eased, funds have begun to seek out higher-resilience assets that had previously shown relatively weak performance.

This is also why we often see:

When BTC starts rebounding, some mid and small caps often show even more pronounced increases.

However, a single-day increase of 15% does not directly prove that ZEC has formed a sustained trend.

Short-term strong assets can also accompany greater volatility.

Therefore, for assets like Zcash, what is more important to watch is whether they can continue to gain volume and support after the rise, rather than solely fixating on a single day's increase.

What Changes Are Occurring in the Crypto Market?

Another noteworthy aspect of this market movement is:

Mainstream assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL are rebounding simultaneously, but the performance gap between different assets remains significant.

This indicates that while market sentiment has improved, it has not yet entered a stage of full return to risk appetite.

If BTC is rising without other assets following significantly, the market may still be in a defensive state.

However, if BTC stabilizes above $81,000 while ETH, SOL, and other mainstream assets begin to sustain their increases, the market structure may show further improvement.

Thus, what needs to be observed next is not just the BTC price.

It also includes:

Whether funds are beginning to spread out to other crypto assets.

📌 If you want to continuously track the influence of BTC, ETH, and macro data on the market, you can follow the public account "Bitcoin Spring," which clarifies significant market changes and the underlying logic every day.

The Real Key Is Still the U.S. Non-Farms

The most critical macro variable in the market currently is still the U.S. employment data.

Because non-farm data will directly affect the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's policy.

If employment data is significantly below expectations, the market may further lower the probability of a rate hike in September.

In such a case, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields might face pressure, and risk assets could have more support.

BTC may also continue to be driven by improving liquidity expectations as a result.

But if non-farm data shows strong performance, the market might again worry about an overheating U.S. economy and thus increase bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike.

At that time, the recent rebound in BTC could also face fresh pressure.

Therefore, we cannot simply conclude that because BTC has returned above $81,000, the trend has completely reversed.

What to Watch After BTC Surpasses $81,000?

From a short-term market logic perspective, $81,000 has again become a point of observation.

If BTC can stabilize above this level and receive sustained capital support as rate hike expectations continue to fall, market sentiment could further improve.

However, if BTC rebounds merely due to temporary changes in policy expectations, and subsequent data raises the probability of a rate hike again, this increase might just be a rebound within a range.

So rather than predicting where BTC will go next, it makes more sense to focus on three variables:

First, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

Second, U.S. non-farm and subsequent inflation data.

Third, after BTC's rise, whether funds start to extend to ETH, SOL, and other crypto assets.

These three variables are more critical than just watching a single candlestick.

Macroeconomic Expectation Changes Are Re-Influencing the Crypto Market

This resurgence of BTC above $81,000 again highlights one issue:

The crypto market is increasingly hard to operate independently from the global macro environment.

Changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations will affect the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.

Changes in the dollar and interest rates will in turn affect global capital's risk appetite.

Ultimately, these variables will transmit to BTC and other risk assets.

The sudden surge of Zcash indicates that when macro pressures ease, the capital rotation within the crypto market remains very active.

Therefore, what is truly worth paying attention to now is not "how much BTC has risen today."

But rather:

Is the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve undergoing a trend change?

📌 Web3 Mr. X: For investors, BTC's return to $81,000 has indeed improved short-term market sentiment, but it is not yet suitable to judge that the trend has completely reversed based solely on one rebound.

The probability of a rate hike in September falling from nearly 66% to about 50% is an important background for this rebound.

Next, non-farm and inflation data will continue to verify this expectation.

If employment cools, and inflation declines, rate hike expectations may fall further, providing more support for risk assets.

Conversely, if employment remains strong and inflation rises again, Federal Reserve policy expectations may turn hawkish once more.

Thus, what is most crucial now is not to guess where BTC's next stop is.

But rather to watch:

Whether the Federal Reserve's policy expectations continue to cool, and if capital can spread from BTC to the entire crypto market.

—— I am Web3 Mr. X, with 6 years of growth in Web3, focusing on Bitcoin, the crypto market, macroeconomics, and industry trends. If you want to continuously track the impact of BTC, ETH, HYPE, and macro data on the market, please follow the public account "Bitcoin Spring." Understand the hotspots, grasp the logic, and establish your own judgment instead of just watching price fluctuations.

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