Bitcoin BTC has risen above $80,000 again, and market risk appetite is warming up🔥
On August 28th, Beijing time, Bitcoin rose above $80,000 again.
In the past 24 hours, BTC has increased nearly 2%, reaching a high of $81,500 during the day.
Notably, this round of rebound is not solely due to BTC's rise.
Solana has performed the strongest, up over 4% in 24 hours, reclaiming the $100 mark; ETH rose about 1%, XRP increased nearly 2%, and BNB was up over 1%.
In the past week, BTC has risen about 9%, with SOL soaring about 20%, while ETH and XRP have also seen increases of nearly 11% respectively.
Market sentiment is clearly improving.
However, if we only look at the prices, it's easy to overlook the true driving force behind this rise.
Currently, the biggest support for BTC comes from the continued influx of funds into the US spot ETF.
Continuous inflows for 8 trading days, ETFs are becoming an important buyer for BTC
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, accumulating a total of $2.8 billion.
This is the longest round of continuous inflows since April.
In August alone, ETF inflows have exceeded $3 billion, and with only one trading day left, it may become the strongest month since 2026.
This signifies a very important change:
BTC is now not solely relying on short-term traders to push prices higher.
The ongoing absorption of BTC supply by the spot ETF is forming a relatively stable spot buying pressure.
This is also why BTC has still managed to find support when returning to the $77,000 to $80,000 area after experiencing a rapid rise earlier.
From the perspective of capital structure, the quality of this rise is clearly higher than a market driven purely by leverage.
Why can BTC continue to rise under the expectation of rate hikes?
This may be the current market's most noteworthy contradiction.
On one hand, the market is re-pricing for higher interest rates.
Currently, the futures market estimates the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates in September at around 35%, with a full rate hike already priced in by December.
According to traditional logic:
Rising rate expectations
↓
Stronger US dollar and treasury yields
↓
Pressure on risk asset valuations
↓
BTC is under pressure
But in reality, another situation has emerged.
Bitcoin BTC has still risen about 9% over the past week.
This indicates a clear divergence between "rate expectations and spot demand" in the current market.
In other words, the macro environment is not particularly friendly, but the inflow of ETF funds and spot buying has temporarily outweighed the pressure imposed by rate expectations.
This is also the most noteworthy aspect of the current situation.
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Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole may become a real turning point
The biggest event in the market today is not Bitcoin's price itself.
Instead, it's Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's first thematic speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference.
The Jackson Hole conference has always been an important window for global financial markets to observe the direction of Federal Reserve policy.
For Warsh, this speech is particularly important.
Because prior to this, he had not given sufficiently clear signals about the future path of interest rates.
Thus, this speech may be the market's first real opportunity to assess his stance on monetary policy.
Especially since the market has already begun to bet on a rate hike in September.
If Warsh signals a more hawkish stance, the market may further raise its expectations for high rates or even additional rate hikes.
At that time, the US dollar and treasury yields could continue to strengthen, putting short-term profit pressure on BTC.
Conversely, if Warsh is not as hawkish as the market anticipates and even expresses concerns about the economy and employment, recent rate hike trades may pull back.
This could, in turn, become a catalyst for BTC to continue advancing.
Therefore, what the market is truly trading tonight may not be a simple "rate hike" or "rate cut."
Instead, it is:
What does Warsh really think about the US economy, and what level does he hope to maintain interest rates at?
The drop in oil prices also temporarily eases inflationary pressures
Besides the Federal Reserve, an important change has also occurred in the energy market.
Brent crude oil has now fallen to around $90 per barrel, dropping more than 5% this week.
One significant reason is that Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on the management of the Strait of Hormuz, easing market concerns about disruptions to energy supply.
This is a relatively positive change for the Federal Reserve.
Because the biggest risk of rising oil prices was the potential to elevate energy inflation again.
If oil prices continue to decline, the pressure from energy prices on US inflation may gradually weaken.
This also means:
Even if the Federal Reserve currently maintains a hawkish stance, the market does not need to face a continuously rising energy price shock.
For risk assets, this is a relatively friendly backdrop.
The AI trend in US stocks is also helping to boost risk appetite
Another variable worth noting comes from US stocks.
NVIDIA's latest earnings report and guidance continue to drive the AI trend.
The company's quarterly revenue reached $96.2 billion, with a forecast of over $105 billion for the next quarter.
As a result, NVIDIA's stock price surged about 9%, adding approximately $442 billion to its market capitalization in one day, while the Nasdaq index rose about 1.3%.
This indicates that there is no obvious risk-averse sentiment appearing among global risk assets currently.
On the contrary, AI, tech stocks, and crypto assets are all receiving certain financial support simultaneously.
From a market structure perspective, this improvement in risk appetite is also beneficial for BTC to maintain high levels.
Of course, the AI trend and BTC do not have a simple positive correlation.
What is truly important is:
The rise in tech stocks signifies that the market is still willing to take on some risks.
And when risk appetite increases, high-volatility assets like BTC typically receive more attention from funds.
📌 If you want to continuously track the impact of BTC, ETH, and macro data on the market, you can follow the public account "Crypto Spring and Autumn", which clarifies important market changes and the underlying logic every day.
Technically, the $80,000 mark is shifting from resistance to a new observation point
From a price structure perspective, BTC has currently risen above $80,000 again.
This area was previously a clear resistance level.
The Bitfinex analysis team believes that spot demand is absorbing the selling pressure above the $77,000 to $80,000 range.
If $80,000 can hold strong, then the market's next focus should be on the selling pressure near previous highs.
The current high point from May is around $83,000.
This means:
$80,000 is an important psychological threshold for the short term;
While around $83,000 is the next key pressure area in the next stage.
If BTC can break through and hold above $83,000, this round of upward structure may further solidify.
But if $80,000 is lost again and ETF inflows begin to slow down, the market should be wary of concentrated profit-taking at high levels.
So now is not simply a judgment of "Can BTC still rise?".
What's more important to observe is:
Can capital inflows continue to keep pace with the price increase?
SOL has become one of the strongest assets among mainstream coins in this round
Aside from BTC, Solana's performance is also very noteworthy.
SOL has risen over 4% in the last 24 hours, reclaiming the $100 mark.
In the past 7 days, the cumulative increase has reached 20%, significantly outperforming BTC, ETH, and XRP.
This indicates that the current market's risk appetite is not solely concentrated on BTC.
Some funds are spreading towards high-beta assets.
If BTC can continue to maintain its strength, while ETH, SOL, and other mainstream assets continue to catch up, the market may gradually shift from "BTC is strong alone" to "mainstream assets rising together".
But this likewise requires confirmed continued capital inflows.
If BTC maintains its strength, while altcoins and high-beta assets begin to weaken again, the market might still be in a stage of concentrated capital flocking to BTC.
📌Web3 Mr. X: What is truly worth focusing on now is the tussle between "capital" and "policy"
This round of Bitcoin rising above $80,000, on the surface, seems like a price breakthrough.
But what really drives the market are several variables changing simultaneously:
The US spot ETF has seen net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, accumulating $2.8 billion;
BTC has risen about 9% over the past week;
SOL has increased about 20% over the week;
Oil prices have retreated from highs;
AI tech stocks continue to strengthen.
These factors together have driven the rebound in risk appetite.
However, there is also a very obvious risk in the market:
The Federal Reserve's expectations for rate hikes are warming up.
This has created the most core contradiction in the current market:
On one side is the continually increasing spot capital;
On the other side are the increasingly hawkish rate expectations.
And today's Jackson Hole meeting may be the critical juncture to test which of these two forces is stronger.
If Warsh's speech does not significantly reinforce rate hike expectations, while ETF funding continues to flow in, then after BTC stabilizes above $80,000, the market may continue to seek breakout opportunities near $83,000.
But if Warsh is clearly hawkish, resulting in a rapid strengthening of the dollar and treasury yields, then the substantial profits accumulated recently may begin to be cashed out.
Therefore, what is most worth focusing on now is not simply predicting whether BTC will rise or fall next.
Rather, it is to observe:
Whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and whether Federal Reserve policy expectations will, in turn, suppress risk appetite.
—— I am Mr. X of Web3, with 6 years of growth in Web3, focused on Bitcoin, crypto markets, macroeconomics, and industry trends.
If you want to continuously track the impact of BTC, ETH, HYPE, and macro data on the market, you can also follow the public account "Crypto Spring and Autumn". Understand the hotspots, discern the logic, and build your own judgments, rather than just watching price fluctuations.
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