Source: BIT Securities

As SpaceX's stock price recently returned to the IPO issuance price of $135, a question has begun to surface: Will SpaceX drop below the issuance price again this year, or even fall below $100?

To answer this question, we need to review how this rebound occurred.

1. The Selling Wave Did Not Arrive: Being Able to Sell Does Not Mean One Must Sell

The biggest concern in the market previously was that employees and early investors would sell off their shares in bulk after the lock-up period expired—especially after the financial report was released in early August, when the first wave of unlocks occurred as expected.

What was the result? The anticipated massive selling pressure did not appear, and the stock price not only did not fall but actually rose.

This confirms a commonly overlooked fact: unlocking does not equate to selling, especially for companies with a long-term positive outlook. Musk and early investors maintain high confidence in the company's long-term prospects, and their willingness to hold shares has not changed due to the unlock—being able to sell does not mean one will sell, and when the looming threat of "post-unlock concentrated selling" was lifted, the loss of uncertainty itself was a positive signal.

2. What Is Seriously Undervalued Is the Computing Empire Hidden Behind the Rockets

SpaceX's fundamentals were previously significantly undervalued in the market.

While everyone was focused on Musk's rockets and Starlink satellites, what was most overlooked was the AI computing landscape that SpaceX is building. According to the latest disclosed financial reports and strategic plans, SpaceX plans to launch up to 8 GW of computing power. At current market prices, each GW of computing power is valued at approximately $50 billion—if all 8 GW are realized, it corresponds to a massive revenue of $400 billion.

To put this number in perspective: In the next 12 to 24 months, just by selling AI computing power, SpaceX is expected to reap hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue. Meanwhile, Tesla's current annual revenue is only around $100 billion—equivalent to several Teslas being recreated.

3. A Further Imagination: Moving Computing Power into Orbit

Beyond terrestrial computing power, SpaceX's long-term narrative offers even greater imaginative space: orbital computing is progressing from concept to reality.

And sending things into space is precisely what SpaceX has been doing for over twenty years. Launch costs, carrying capacity, satellite networking—what other companies have to learn from scratch, are all advantages that SpaceX already possesses.

4. Wall Street Has Already Taken Action: Median Target Price of $225

The shift in institutional attitudes is more honest than share prices. Wall Street is accelerating the inclusion of SpaceX into institutional investment frameworks, with several investment banks already providing target prices: the median is around $225, with a range spanning from $190 to $800—Goldman Sachs around $205, JPMorgan around $225, Morgan Stanley around $300.

As analyst coverage, valuation models, liquidity, and potential index inclusions gradually improve, SpaceX is undergoing a transformation: from a "Musk concept stock" to an asset that institutional investors need to compare with Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google on the same allocation table.

5. In Conclusion

Returning to the initial question: Will it drop below the issuance price this year?

First, let’s consider the bearish perspective: the most dangerous unlock window has been safely navigated, faith-based investors are holding their positions, the valuation reassessment of the computing business has only just begun, and institutional capital is entering the market— the probability of a short-term fall below $100 is indeed rapidly diminishing.

However, it is necessary to state the downside upfront: SpaceX's current valuation has already factored in high growth expectations for multiple businesses including Starlink, Starship, AI infrastructure, and orbital computing. As the supply of shares increases, the "scarcity premium" will gradually dilute. Whether the stock price can rise further will no longer depend on "not being able to buy," but rather on the speed at which fundamentals manifest and whether institutional funds can continuously absorb the newly issued shares.

The story of rockets has completed the first half. In the second half, we will see how the account for computing power will be written.

【Risk Warning】This article is written and provided by an external contributor. The personnel information mentioned has been verified, but specific procurement figures, institutional judgments, and strategic interpretations come from public reports and market analyses, which may contain inaccuracies. The views, analyses, and judgments expressed in this article represent the author’s personal opinions and do not represent the official position of BIT or BIT Research, and BIT does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the related content. This article does not constitute investment advice, an offer or invitation to offer, nor does it recommend any securities transactions. Investment involves the risk of capital loss, market prices may fluctuate significantly, and past performance does not represent future results. Investors should make independent judgments and consult professional advice.

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