SHIB may face a pullback this month, three key factors to watch

Summary:

SHIB recorded consecutive increases in July and August, but as September approached, the market began to show some warning signs. A decrease in the token burn rate, insufficient activity on the Shibarium network, and historically weak seasonal performance may put pressure on SHIB’s short-term trend, although a decline in exchange holdings also indicates that market selling pressure is not entirely dominant. Follow the public account "Bit Lemon" for daily market analysis, news, and practical insights.

SHIB faces a new test after consecutive increases

SHIB has performed relatively strongly recently, closing higher in both July and August.

However, with the arrival of September, the market has begun to refocus on whether SHIB can sustain its previous upward trend.

From the current data, several noteworthy changes have occurred in the market, and these factors may become important variables affecting SHIB’s future performance. Follow the public account "Bit Lemon" for daily market analysis, news, and practical insights.

Declining burn rate, reduced effect of supply contraction

The first factor to pay attention to is the token burn of SHIB.

Data shows that in August, the number of SHIB tokens sent to burn addresses was less than 600 million, with the monthly burn rate declining by about 6%.

The SHIB ecosystem has long regarded token burning as an important mechanism for reducing circulating supply.

Theoretically, if the circulating SHIB continues to decrease while market demand remains stable, the supply contraction could support the price.

However, if burning activities continue to remain sluggish, the direct impact of supply reduction on price will also be relatively limited.

Therefore, whether the scale of SHIB burning can increase again in the future will become one of the key indicators for observing the activity of the ecosystem. Follow the public account "Bit Lemon" for daily market analysis, news, and practical insights.

Shibarium activity remains relatively low

The second factor comes from Shibarium.

As an important Layer 2 network of the SHIB ecosystem, Shibarium was originally anticipated to perform well, and its network activity is considered to have a certain relationship with the overall development of the SHIB ecosystem.

However, the trading activity on Shibarium remains relatively limited, with daily transaction numbers mainly hovering in the hundreds to thousands.

If network utilization cannot significantly improve over the long term, market attention to the actual demand for the SHIB ecosystem may also increase.

For a token that hopes to transition from a meme asset to an ecological project, real users and network utilization remain very important fundamental indicators. Follow the public account "Bit Lemon" for daily market analysis, news, and practical insights.

September’s historical performance is not ideal

The third factor comes from seasonal performance.

Historically, September has not been a particularly strong month for SHIB.

In the past five years, SHIB has closed with negative returns in September three times.

It is worth noting that in 2022, SHIB also experienced consecutive increases in July and August, followed by a weakening in September.

Although historical performance cannot determine future trends, in the current market that has experienced continuous increases, seasonal factors may further increase short-term volatility risks. Follow the public account "Bit Lemon" for daily market analysis, news, and practical insights.

Declining exchange holdings bring a slight positive signal

However, the market is not entirely bearish.

According to CryptoQuant data, SHIB’s holdings on exchanges have continuously decreased in the past month.

Generally, when tokens are transferred from centralized exchanges to personal wallets, it may indicate that investors are less willing to sell in the short term.

If this trend continues, the reduction in exchange supply could actually lessen immediate selling pressure.

Thus, the current SHIB market is in a state where both bullish and bearish factors coexist.

On one hand, ecosystem activity and burn data are weak.

On the other hand, declining exchange holdings provide some support. Follow the public account "Bit Lemon" for daily market analysis, news, and practical insights.

What should SHIB watch for next?

In the short term, the biggest risk for SHIB comes from profit-taking after increases.

The consecutive increases in July and August have significantly improved market sentiment; if inflows slow down in September, some short-term funds may choose to take profits.

At the same time, if Shibarium’s network activity continues to remain low, and the scale of SHIB burning does not significantly recover, market concerns regarding the ecosystem’s fundamentals may increase further.

Conversely, if exchange holdings continue to decline while network activity begins to recover, the current bearish logic may gradually weaken.

Therefore, in the future, it is important to closely observe changes in capital flow, Shibarium activity, and SHIB burn data. Follow the public account "Bit Lemon" for daily market analysis, news, and practical insights.

Bit Lemon

Every day, we bring you the highlights of the crypto market, not just seeing what news is happening, but helping you understand the logic and opportunities behind the market trends 👀🚀

Follow the public account "Bit Lemon" for daily market analysis, news, and practical insights.

Conclusion

After two consecutive months of increases, SHIB may face new market tests in September.

A declining burn rate, low Shibarium activity, and weak historical seasonal performance are currently three key risk factors to focus on.

However, the continuous decrease in exchange holdings also indicates that the market is not entirely lacking support.

Thus, in the short term, SHIB is more likely to enter a stage of bullish and bearish contention, and whether it can continue to rise will depend on the ecological data, capital flow, and whether overall market sentiment can continue to improve. Follow the public account "Bit Lemon" for daily market analysis, news, and practical insights.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。