In the coming four weeks, the regulatory game, macro changes, and token supply will rarely intertwine in the same month.

Written by: angelilu, Foresight News

On September 1, the core provisions of Russia's first comprehensive cryptocurrency law officially took effect, becoming the first significant event of the month. And it is just the beginning.

On September 6, Hyperliquid unlocked approximately $800 million worth of tokens; on September 15, the Federal Reserve opened its interest rate meeting, and on the same day, the Senate was to cast a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act that would decide its fate; on September 17, the SEC was to hold a meeting to discuss the transition of US stocks to 24-hour trading; on September 30, the consultation for the EU MiCA revision would end. In the middle were three industry events in Taipei, Shanghai, and Seoul, while the trillion-dollar valuation Anthropic awaits its IPO queue.

In the coming four weeks, the regulatory game, macro changes, and token supply will rarely intertwine in the same month.

September BTC Historical Performance

September has a poor reputation in Bitcoin's history. In the 13 Septembers since 2013, 8 experienced declines, with an average drop of 3.08% and a median of -3.12%. It is one of the worst-performing months of the year, with a continuous six-year decline from 2017 to 2022.

However, this trend has failed in the past three years, with increases of 3.91% in 2023, 7.29% in 2024, and 5.16% in 2025.

This August, Bitcoin increased by 24.95%, marking the largest single-month gain of 2026, with prices rising from the $60,000 range to over $80,000 at one point, following declines of 22.2% in the first quarter and 14.09% in the second quarter. As of early September, Bitcoin fluctuated between $75,000 and $78,000, still significantly below the historical high of $126,000, with a market share of 59.16% and a total crypto market cap of $2.675 trillion. In the last week of August, net inflows to crypto funds totaled $3.2 billion, marking the highest weekly value since October 2025.

At least from a funding perspective, the beginning of September looks promising, and here is a timeline of this month's events:

Early September: New Russian Regulations Take Effect, $1.5 Billion Token Supply Flood Looms

On September 1, the core provisions of Russia’s first comprehensive cryptocurrency law signed by Putin take effect. Only registered entities can operate cryptocurrency exchanges, with unregistered ones having a transition period until July 1, 2027; banks must refuse transfers from unauthorized platforms; retail investors can purchase the most liquid cryptocurrencies via licensed intermediaries, with an annual cap of approximately $3,800, while qualified investors are not restricted; holders are granted judicial protection, regardless of whether they previously declared their assets. The domestic payment ban remains, but the law explicitly allows the use of digital currencies for foreign trade settlements between Russian and non-Russian entities, as well as for settling mining proceeds and digital asset platforms. Against the backdrop of sanctions, these exceptions outweigh all previous restrictions.

On September 2, Ethena unlocked 40.63 million ENA tokens, worth about $6.05 million, all allocated to the foundation.

On September 3, Binance delisted the spot trading of ICX, SCRT, and STORJ. The U.S. released labor productivity and cost data.

On September 4, the August non-farm employment report is released. This marks the first calibration point for September's interest rate hike expectations.

On September 6, Hyperliquid unlocked 9.92 million HYPE tokens, accounting for 2.37% of the released supply, valued between $589 million and $797 million by different standards. With SUI and ENA included, approximately $1.5 billion worth of tokens entered circulation in the first week of September, mostly from this release.

On September 7, the U.S. markets closed for Labor Day. On the same day, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority launched six industry briefing sessions in September, with the first theme being the disclosure of entry for crypto assets and market abuse regulations.

Mid-September: September 15 is Key

From September 10 to 11, the U.S. will release PPI and CPI data.

On September 11, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority held a briefing, focusing on the issuance of sterling-backed stablecoins.

On September 15, three significant events coincided:

First, the two-day Federal Open Market Committee interest rate meeting opened. CME FedWatch showed that the market priced a 66% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. If this occurs, it would be the first rate hike in this cycle. New Chair Kevin Warsh noted that core inflation "has not shown substantial improvement," and the personal consumption expenditures price index remains significantly above the 2% target, with oil prices high and 30-year mortgage rates approaching 7%. FedWatch also indicated about a 50% probability of another rate hike in December.

Second, the Senate cast a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act. It should be noted that this is not the GENIUS Act. The CLARITY Act addresses the classification of digital assets between securities and commodities, with investment contracts falling under the SEC and digital commodities like Bitcoin and Ethereum falling under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

This vote is not about whether to pass the act, but rather whether to end debate and move to formal consideration. The House had already passed it on July 17, 2025, with a vote of 294 to 134, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it on May 2026 with a vote of 15 to 9. Majority leader John Thune submitted a motion to end debate on August 8. The threshold is 60 votes, with Republicans holding 53 seats, needing 7 Democrats to cross over.

There are three sticking points: whether unspent balances of stablecoins can earn interest (opposed by banking), the anti-money laundering obligations of non-custodial developers, and the inclusion of a provision prohibiting the president and high-ranking officials from profiting from cryptocurrencies, insisted upon by Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Ruben Gallego. Prediction market Polymarket reports a 12% to 13% chance, while Kalshi reports 15% to 19%. Grayscale's head of research, Zach Pandl, judges that the chances of passing this year are low. November is the midterm election, and if September 15 fails, the bill will likely have to wait until the new Congress in 2027 for reintroduction. The Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Rostin Behnam, stated that the agency is exploring alternative paths with existing authority, but it cannot replace codified law.

Third, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority held a briefing on regulated crypto asset activities on the same day.

On September 16, the Federal Reserve announced its rate decision.

On September 17, the SEC held a roundtable meeting on 24-hour trading at its Washington headquarters, discussing the transition of the U.S. stock market to 24-hour trading, including preparations for supporting overnight trading, the operation and resilience of a 24-hour market, and the resulting opportunities and challenges.

Late September: Compliance Schedule and Asian Conference Season

On September 18, 22, and 29, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority hosted three additional briefings, covering topics such as the applicability of manuals in regulated crypto activities, how to obtain authorization under the new system, and the prudential regime for crypto asset companies. The agency released the final rules on June 30, with the new system set to take effect on October 25, 2027.

From September 29 to October 1, the Korea Blockchain Week (KBW2026) was held in Seoul, with Upbit as the main sponsor. Following this will be the TOKEN2049 event in Singapore from October 7 to 8. By the end of September, the narrative baton of the Web3 event transfers to Asia.

Throughout September, there were also two public comment periods for two documents progressing simultaneously. On August 18, the SEC proposed "Regulation Crypto Assets," establishing two registration exemptions for token issuance—under $5 million or annual revenues below $75 million within four years—and providing a conditional safe harbor for investment contracts, with a comment period lasting 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. On the same day, the Treasury released a proposal for the implementation details of Section 3 of the GENIUS Act, defining terms such as "issuance," "issuer," and "located within the United States," with comments due by October 19. When the Congressional route is blocked, the industry's lobbying resources will shift here.

Three Events Extended to October

Anthropic submitted its S-1 draft secretly on June 1, with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan as lead underwriters. The latest financing round was on May 28, marking a post-valuation of $965 billion; according to the Financial Times on August 13, investors are targeting an October IPO with an valuation of $2 trillion or more. If achieved, this would surpass SpaceX's issuance of $1.77 trillion on June 1, making it the largest IPO in history. Prediction markets give a probability of about 70% for an IPO completion by the end of October and about 88% by the end of November, with a low probability of completing in September. A trillion-dollar tech stock IPO would reprice the entire risk asset curve, as AI and crypto have been vying for the same incremental funds over the past two years.

Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade has been postponed from its initial target in the first half of the year to Q4 2026, marking the second adjustment of the timetable this year, with September being a phase for finalizing the testnet and parameters.

The Japanese Parliament passed an amendment to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act in July, reclassifying cryptocurrencies as financial assets with a tax rate reduced to 20%, opening the door for spot ETFs, with September being a preparation period for supporting regulations.