Good evening everyone, I am Xin Ya. So far, I have not tasted defeat for half a month in a row. Today's movements were relatively good. The major prices at 78800 and 79200 accurately identified the main support level.

This morning I mentioned that in the past thirty days, the spot inflow for Bitcoin and Ethereum were 1.5 billion and 570 million respectively, while the contract volumes were 7.8 billion and 1.5 billion.

The inflow ratio of Ethereum contracts to spots is far greater than that of Bitcoin, but after the rise, the outflow ratio of Ethereum contracts is also far greater than the spot, indicating that spot players are not interested in the current Bitcoin price. On the other hand, Ethereum players are somewhat interested in the spot, but not much; they clearly have a greater interest in volatility. This is already sufficient to indicate the future market trends. If spot players cannot be attracted, they will walk out with satisfactory prices during tests. Additionally, several of the recent price spikes were triggered by order withdrawals. The crypto market is still very deep. In fact, these observations are enough to indicate the future market. Furthermore, in the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been doing the same thing, which is to utilize inflationary bubbles and burst bubbles to manage debt. The former is easy to understand, while the latter involves complex replacements; this is the core reason why commodities and hot gold and silver have been moving erratically and contrary to logic this year.

Structurally, it is now very clear; the internal structure of Bitcoin is repeatedly contesting, with potential for evolution, while Ethereum's situation is clearer, operating with a new hourly downtrend. We will deal with it according to the latter.

Reviewing past events often contains useless information; many times, Xin Ya writes those empty words just to lead into viewpoints, making preferences and choices seem reasonable, as if thoughtful. Since so many people have reviewed the past, I won’t write about it today. You just need to know that the structure has not broken out yet; just wait for it to break out. Today, the overall bearish outlook remains unchanged, and the approach is simply to make slight adjustments based on yesterday's foundation; the longer it consolidates, the higher the short-term rebound risk. One can only take a directional gamble based on the higher probability side.

It is recommended to short Bitcoin at 78500-78800,
add at 79200-79500, stop loss at 80800.
Conservatively, short at 79200, add at 80500, stop loss at 81200.

For a rebound gamble, refer to 75400, six hundred points loss.
Short Ethereum at the current price of 2455, add at 2485, stop loss at 2515.
Look for a rebound at 2365, with a 20-point stop loss.

Harvest a short-term trade in gold today.

Since we mentioned gold, let’s first review the post market for gold on September 1st.

Since the early hours of the 31st, gold started at 4480, experiencing eleven consecutive bearish hours to reach the solid support of 4400, the rebound was constrained around 4470, and after converging at 4440, it plummeted, with a spike to 4470 during the day. The intraday fluctuation was a hundred points. The four-hour MACD is showing weakness, and the fifteen-minute and one-hour indicators are neutral. Since 4360-4380 is the consolidation range during mid to early August, subsequent consolidation will be needed to discern the future direction.

Short-term short at 4405, add at 4440, follow the pace down. For the short-term, observe around 4348; if it breaks below 4320 in the future, watch for a four-hour decline, then the next target could be 4250. If positioning for a structural rebound, also consider a long between 4320-4340, stop loss at 4300.

Follow the same public account: Xin Ya Talks About Trends.

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