The risks in the crypto market still exist, but the odds of some quality assets stand out, or there may be a selective layout window approaching.

Written by: Jiayi

Recently, there was a piece of news that I think the market has not yet realized its importance. Let me emphasize again. Coinbase and Better are truly integrating crypto mortgages into the U.S. housing finance system. Qualified homebuyers can use their Bitcoin as collateral to obtain down payment loans without needing to sell their BTC first. Moreover, a mere drop in BTC price will not trigger a Margin Call. After the loan is paid off, the mortgaged BTC will be returned.

The significance of this event is far beyond just a new mortgage product.

The U.S. financial system's understanding of crypto has transitioned from ignorance ---- to fraud ---- to speculative assets that can be bought and sold ---- to gradually becoming a capital that can be collateralized and borrowed, connecting with real-world assets.

However, this news has not brought significant catalysts to the market.

This is also one of the reasons why I have recently started to take a serious look at crypto again:

The fundamentals of crypto may be changing more significantly than prices. And the premium on assets comes from the opportunity of catalysts, and I believe this opportunity is getting closer, waiting for an explosion.

I don't know if the market has already bottomed out

I also do not think that a bull market is about to arrive immediately. I do not believe that if a token drops 90%, it should naturally rebound.

I have been learning finance from zero through AI lately, so my investment logic is: given today's price, how much downside do I still have? How great is the potential upside? How long might I have to wait? What level of volatility do I have to endure in the meantime? Can this project survive until it is revalued?

From this perspective, I believe the odds of some quality crypto assets now have entered a very attractive range in the past few years.

This is a payoff call. I call for those potential assets that have dropped significantly after a long decline and are now at a very favorable fundamental valuation.

So I have started to enter positions again.

Many downsides have already been released in the past bear market

Bitcoin has retraced more than 50% from its 2025 peak, and many altcoins have dropped 80%, 90%, or even more.

The market has experienced a long period of deleveraging, capital outflow, valuation compression, and confidence collapse. Many people are no longer willing to look at crypto, thinking that this market has been underperforming and will not have any opportunities in the future.

Some projects should indeed drop. Some projects have no real products, no users, only token incentives and narratives. There are also some projects that are unlikely to return to historical highs.

So the asset quality I am focusing on now is: Price collapsed. Fundamentals did not. The price has collapsed, but the foundation is still sound.

For these assets, the past bear market has already released a significant portion of the downside, but once re-evaluated, the upside remains substantial.

This is where the odds become very cost-effective.

In early 2026, crypto ETFs did experience continuous capital outflow. But that was a result of the prior market conditions.

Recently, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a return of consecutive positive inflows, with nearly $2 billion accumulated over five trading days. Institutions have certainly not returned comprehensively and on a large scale, but at least have moved from continuous withdrawal to tentatively testing this market again.

Cash is just beginning to come back, but market confidence has not yet returned.

I am currently focusing on four types of opportunities

The first type is the direction that large funds and financial institutions in the U.S. are genuinely focusing on, using, or establishing positions in.

The second type consists of projects that remain undervalued within these important tracks. That is, the more cost-effective Long Er or Long San.

When all attention is focused on one leading project, its valuation may already include a large number of expectations. However, in the same track, some projects already have their own users, products, and survival capabilities, and the fundamental gap compared to the leading project is not as significant as the valuation gap.

The third type includes projects that have already achieved Product Market Fit (PMF), have real cash flow, and whose teams do not need to continuously sell tokens to survive.

I will no longer pay for pure narratives.

Those products that users genuinely need and are willing to use repeatedly, and whose business can generate income. The direction that heyi has been advocating for crypto since 2018 is increasingly being recognized.

Of course, a good product does not necessarily correlate to a good token. A project making money does not guarantee that token holders will also gain value. But I stay away from projects that cannot operate healthily in business and rely solely on selling tokens to sustain the team. I also cannot compete with the house.

The fourth type consists of assets that have clear revaluation drivers in the future.

These drivers may come from AI, U.S. politics and policies, stablecoins, tokenization, global trading, mortgage lending, or platforms that can improve global capital efficiency.

Repricing of asset valuations comes from the underlying value of the asset itself, and one of the key requirements for high multiple pricing (driving up) still relies on the driving force of opportunities. Therefore, in addition to the business itself, future grasp concepts also need to be observed. This is not much different from the short-term meme logic.

It is cheap enough today, and there are also very clear reasons for repricing tomorrow.

Attractive odds do not mean that crypto risks have disappeared

Even high-quality altcoins may still drop another 30% or even 50%. The macro environment may deteriorate again, policies may be delayed, ETF capital may flow out again, and a project's fundamentals may also change.

However, volatility and permanent loss are not the same thing.

If a project has a sufficiently strong survival capability, the original logic has not been damaged, and there is potential upside that could be several times reasonable, then the intermediate fluctuations may be a cost worth enduring.

High payoff does not mean low risk. It means that the potential reward increasingly compensates for the remaining risk.

Good odds do not mean no risk. It only represents that today's potential returns are beginning to increasingly compensate for the risks I take on.

This is not a choice between AI and crypto

Recently, many people's funds and attention have shifted from crypto to the U.S. stock market and AI. This is completely understandable.

AI is creating tremendous productivity and new company values, and the U.S. stock market still possesses some of the best assets in the world.

But seeing one opportunity should not blind us to another opportunity.

I don't need crypto to be better than AI.

I also do not need the U.S. stock market to decline for crypto to rise.

AI is good, the U.S. stock market is good, and crypto can also be good.

Different asset classes can simultaneously present opportunities; they just offer different prices and payoffs at different times.

I have always felt that investment does not require team alignment.

There is no need to deny the value of U.S. stocks and AI just because you are a crypto practitioner; nor do you need to suddenly believe that this industry has nothing worth investing in because crypto has underperformed recently.

Investment only serves opportunities.