BTC Holds Above $78,000, Market Enters Repricing Phase After August Surge

As September begins, Bitcoin has not continued the strong upward trend from August.

BTC is currently still holding above $78,000, but mainstream crypto assets have generally undergone a pullback, with ETH, SOL, XRP, and BNB showing weakness, while HYPE has risen against the trend.

On the surface, this appears to be just a normal high-level fluctuation.

However, looking at the longer term, the market is experiencing a more significant phase transition.

In August, BTC rose approximately 24%, marking the strongest monthly performance since November 2024.

After such a rapid increase, the market has begun to reassess:

Is the capital driving BTC's rise still present?

And a more critical question:

Can the macro environment continue to support an increase in risk assets?

Currently, the answers to these two questions are not entirely consistent.

BTC itself remains relatively strong, but the external macro environment is becoming more complex.

Why Has BTC Not Immediately Fallen Below $78,000 Due to Macro Weakness?

One of the biggest recent changes in the market is that Fed policy expectations have begun to shift significantly.

The market currently expects that the probability of an interest rate hike at the Fed meeting on September 16 has risen to about 64%.

This represents a stark change compared to earlier mainstream market expectations of rate cuts.

Typically, a warming of rate hike expectations means:

Higher rates may last longer;

The dollar may receive support;

Treasury yields may continue to rise;

Risk asset valuations come under pressure.

Theoretically, these factors are unfavorable to BTC.

However, the issue is that BTC is still holding around $78,000.

This indicates that the market is not completely trading according to the traditional logic of “rising rates = falling BTC”.

One reason is that BTC has just experienced a very strong rise.

The 24% increase in August has already accumulated significant capital and market attention.

At the same time, the previously formed spot demand still exists.

Therefore, it seems more like:

Bulls are digesting macro pressures rather than the market having fully turned bearish.

This is why $78,000 has become a critical observation level.

Where Does the Real Pressure Come From?

If we only look at BTC prices, it is easy to overlook a key variable:

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield.

Currently, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.78%.

This is not an easy environment for risk assets.

Rising Treasury yields mean that investors can earn higher returns by holding low-risk dollar assets.

This increases the cost of capital and valuation pressure on high-volatility assets like stocks and crypto assets.

Especially after BTC's surge in August, the market is already in a relatively overvalued zone.

Therefore, whether BTC can continue to rise largely depends on:

Whether Treasury yields can continue to climb.

If yields continue to break through key levels while BTC fails to do so, the market may gradually form a trading logic of decreased risk appetite.

Conversely, if yields start to decline, BTC may regain macro-level support.

📌 If you want to further track the key support and pressure levels of BTC daily, you can also follow the public account "Bitcoin Spring" for continuous updates on market hotspots and trends.

Rising Oil Prices Add Another Headache for the Fed

In addition to Treasury yields, oil prices are also a variable that the market cannot ignore right now.

Brent crude oil has returned to around $91.

This means that potential inflationary pressure from energy prices in the U.S. has risen again.

Why is this important for BTC?

Because crude oil itself does not directly determine BTC's rise or fall.

The true transmission pathway is:

Oil prices rise
↓
Inflationary pressure increases
↓
The market worries that the Fed's space to cut rates is limited
↓
Rate hike expectations rise
↓
Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen
↓
Risk assets come under pressure

Thus, the impact of oil prices on BTC is fundamentally completed through the "inflation-rate-liquidity" chain.

If oil prices are merely short-term fluctuations, the impact may be limited.

But if energy prices continue to stay high, the market's judgment on Fed policy may further change.

This is also one of the biggest potential risks in the current macro environment.

🔥What Does a 64% Probability of a Rate Hike in September Mean?

The market has already begun to raise its bets on a rate hike in September.

A 64% probability does not mean that the Fed will definitely raise rates.

What it truly reflects is:

The market believes that a rate hike has become a policy scenario that cannot be ignored.

This will directly affect asset pricing.

Because financial market trading has never been as simple as "Will the Fed raise rates today or not."

The market trades on:

Where will rates be in the coming months?

Will dollar liquidity become tighter or looser?

Will Treasury yields continue to rise?

These expectations will be precociously reflected in asset prices.

So even if there is ultimately no rate hike in September, as long as market expectations shift from "rate cuts" to "maintaining high rates", risk assets may also come under pressure.

For BTC, what truly needs to be watched is not just a single interest rate number.

But rather:

Has the market's expectation of future liquidity undergone a directional change?

Non-Farm Data Becomes the First Major Test in September

In the current context, the U.S. August non-farm employment data to be released this Friday has become very important.

Because employment data will directly affect the market's judgment on Fed policy.

If non-farm data is significantly stronger than expected, it means the U.S. labor market still shows resilience.

The market may further believe that the Fed has no need to quickly turn to easing.

Thus, interest rate hike expectations may continue to heat up.

In this situation:

The dollar may strengthen;

Treasury yields may continue to rise;

BTC may face further pressure.

Conversely, if non-farm data shows a significant cooling, even indicating a rapid slowdown in the labor market, the market may lower its betting on rate hikes again.

This would provide some support for risk assets.

So the importance of this non-farm data lies not just in assessing whether the U.S. job market is good.

But rather:

It could become a catalyst for the market to reprice Fed policy.

📌 If you want to continuously track BTC, ETH, and the impact of macro data on the market, you can follow the public account "Bitcoin Spring", where we explain significant market changes and the underlying logic daily.

Mainstream Coins Show Divergence, HYPE Becomes Market Highlight

Apart from BTC, another phenomenon worth noting in this market cycle is:

There is a clear divergence among mainstream coins.

ETH, SOL, XRP, and BNB are generally weak, but HYPE has risen against the trend by about 4%, returning to around $84.

This indicates that funds have not completely exited the crypto market.

More accurately:

Funds are undergoing structural selection.

After BTC's significant rise, some capital may start to look for relatively strong high-beta assets.

However, this does not mean that the altcoin season has fully commenced.

If only a few assets are rising while BTC and most mainstream coins cannot continue to break through, it is more likely to be local capital rotation.

A true return of overall risk appetite requires seeing:

BTC maintaining strength;

ETH regaining strength;

Mainstream coins rising in sync;

Market trading volume and capital flow further amplifying.

More data confirmation is still needed at this point.

Why Is $78,000 a Key Level Right Now?

From a technical perspective, $78,000 has become a very important short-term support area for BTC.

After the significant rise in August, the market needs a new price range to digest previous profit-taking.

If BTC can steadily hold above $78,000 and break through $80,000 again, the market may have the opportunity to re-test previous highs.

But if $78,000 is lost, especially if it further breaks below around $77,200, the short-term structure may noticeably weaken.

Therefore, what is most worth watching right now is not "Will BTC break through immediately?".

But rather:

Can $78,000 become new support?

If this level stabilizes, the market still belongs to a post-surge high-level fluctuation.

If the support continues to fail, it means that macro pressures are starting to transmit into prices.

📌Mr. Web3 X: The Stronger the Rise in August, the More We Need to Focus on Macro Variables in September

BTC's 24% increase in August indicates that market risk appetite was very strong at that time.

However, as we enter September, the environment the market faces has changed.

Oil prices have returned to around $91;

Treasury yields have risen to 4.78%;

Market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have risen to 64%;

And this Friday, non-farm data is awaiting release.

These variables together suggest that BTC may enter a phase that relies more on macro data in the coming period.

But we also cannot simply understand this as "rising rate hike expectations mean BTC will definitely fall."

Because BTC is still holding above $78,000, indicating that internal buying power and risk appetite within the market have not completely vanished.

Thus, what truly needs observation now is two directions:

First, can BTC hold above $78,000 and $77,200 support?

Second, will the non-farm data further enhance market expectations for a rate hike in September?

If employment cools and rate hike expectations decline, BTC may regain the space for upward breakthroughs.

If employment is strong, while oil prices and Treasury yields continue to rise, BTC would face greater macro pressures.

So what is truly worth paying attention to in September is not just BTC's price.

But rather:

Can macro liquidity continue to support this round of increases?

——I am Mr. Web3 X, with 6 years of growth in Web3, focused on Bitcoin, the crypto market, macroeconomics, and industry trends. If you want to continuously track BTC, ETH, HYPE, and the impact of macro data on the market, you can follow the public account "Bitcoin Spring". Understand the hotspots, insight the logic, and establish your own judgment instead of just focusing on price fluctuations.

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