Written by: Rita

Recently, some Federal Reserve officials have frequently mentioned that the resource constraints brought by the AI boom are sources of inflationary pressure, prompting Goldman Sachs to seek answers through data. On August 30, Goldman Sachs released an economic analysis report for the United States, systematically reviewing the capacity constraints in various sectors of the economy through industry-level data, analysis of Beige Book texts, and alternative data from the service sector. On a macro level, there are no significant signs of overheating. The electric equipment, machinery manufacturing, and professional services sectors have seen localized tensions due to AI-related demand.

Goldman's labor market looseness indicator is 1 percentage point higher than at the end of the last cycle. Wage growth has fallen below the level consistent with a 2% inflation target. The overall capacity utilization rate across industries is not high. The concerns of some Federal Reserve officials have their basis, as Goldman's sectoral analysis has found early signals of supply bottlenecks in AI-related fields.

Overall balance in the labor market, with sector gaps below pre-pandemic levels

Goldman Sachs measures the tension in the labor market across industries using the "job-worker gap." This indicator captures the true tightness of the labor market better than the unemployment rate.

In most industries, the job-worker gap has fallen below pre-pandemic levels. A few sectors, such as wholesale trade, healthcare, and professional services, have gaps that are slightly above pre-pandemic levels but have significantly retreated from their peaks and show no signs of re-tightening. The labor shortage index, constructed by Goldman based on the Beige Book texts from 12 Federal Reserve districts, shows that the labor tension across the U.S. is close to historical averages.

The breadth of wage growth is in a moderate range. Goldman tracks wage growth in about 90 sub-industries, of which approximately 35% have nominal wage growth exceeding 4%, a rate consistent with the 2% inflation target. This percentage is slightly higher than the 25% average from 1990 to 2019, far below the approximately 90% peak in 2022.

Manufacturing capacity constraints concentrated in AI-related equipment sectors

Most manufacturing industries have yet to reach their capacity limits and still have ample space to expand production. The electric equipment and machinery manufacturing sectors are approaching recent cycle peak capacity utilization rates, reflective of strong demand for AI infrastructure.

Leading indicators of capacity pressure, such as overtime hours, are currently below peak levels seen in the past two decades across industries. Goldman estimates that overtime hours lead capacity utilization by about 3 to 6 months. This indicator points to limited capacity pressure risk.

Overall low capacity utilization in the service sector, with professional services as an exception

Official capacity utilization data exists for manufacturing but not for services. Goldman has constructed capacity utilization indicators for seven service sector industries using alternative data. Data sources include air freight load rates, hotel occupancy rates, retail sales per unit area, etc. These seven industries together account for about 30% of GDP.

Most service sector industries are significantly below their capacity utilization peaks from the past two decades. Professional and business services are the main exceptions. Consulting activities are helping companies complete their AI transformations, nearing capacity limits in the short term. Goldman's composite service sector capacity utilization index has returned to pre-pandemic levels, currently slightly above long-term averages. This index contributes about 10 basis points to core services (excluding housing) PCE inflation, far below the 30 to 40 basis points contribution from 2021 to 2022.

Composite bottleneck indicators remain at pre-pandemic levels

Goldman has integrated three sets of indicators related to labor, manufacturing, and services into a composite bottleneck tracking indicator to monitor situations where job-worker gaps, wage growth, or capacity constraints are simultaneously elevated across industries.

This indicator has risen slightly in recent months, primarily reflecting the expansion of the job-worker gap after a strengthening labor market in certain sub-industries in the second half of 2025. The overall level remains consistent with pre-pandemic levels, indicating that capacity pressures have not spread widely. Regional overheating phenomena are concentrated in a few AI-related fields.

Goldman believes that the U.S. economy is overall in a balanced state, and the AI boom has not yet evolved into widespread inflationary pressure. Supply bottlenecks in the electric equipment, machinery manufacturing, and professional services sectors deserve attention.

Disclaimer

This article is a整理与解读 of third-party brokerage research reports (Goldman Sachs, August 30, 2026) by Chao Xiang Research, combined with public market information整理. The ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited in the text are the opinions of the respective brokerage analysts, represent the stance of their institutions only, do not represent the views of Chao Xiang Research, and do not constitute investment advice.

Markets involve risks, and decisions should be made independently. This article should not serve as the basis for buying or selling any securities.