Brothers, on the journey of the rivers and lakes, do not fear the distance, and encounter like-minded people along the way. Hello everyone, I am Jiangye.

⚠️ The following is only a technical logic analysis of the market, for communication reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is highly volatile; contracts must be strictly controlled in position and stop-loss set strictly.

From last night to today, the market has experienced a fundamental shift in direction. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller made it clear at the Jackson Hole annual meeting: Inflation has not shown any meaningful slowdown, the Fed "still has work to do", and current financial conditions are not restrictive, with interest rates being the "main tool" to fulfill their responsibilities. This is the most explicit acknowledgment of the need for further interest rate hikes in Waller's public speeches since taking office, showing a distinctly hawkish attitude.

The market reacted extremely vigorously. Traders quickly increased their bets on a rate hike in September, with the probabilities of a hike and a pause reaching a deadlock of about 50% each. The dollar strengthened, with gold taking the brunt—spot gold plummeted 2.6% in one day, a decline of over $120, reporting $4480, and briefly touching a weekly low of $4464 during the session. Silver fell 3.63%, and platinum reversed from gains to losses. The precious metals market faced severe sell-offs; this is not just an ordinary pullback but a collective flight of funds after a shift in macro expectations. For real-time changes, feel free to communicate and follow up together. Follow the public account Jiangye Observations.

The cryptocurrency circle also could not escape unscathed. Bitcoin surged to a high of 79971 before sharply diving, hitting a low of 76853, a single-day pullback of over 3000 points; Ethereum spiked to 2526 before quickly plummeting, reaching a low of 2403. Both exhibited large bearish candlesticks, establishing a main short structure.

1. Current Market Real State B

BTC (Bitcoin)

Current price around 77700. Retracing from a high of 81478, the pullback magnitude is about 4.5%.

1-hour period: TD-Down2, the retracement sequence has just begun, with the price running below the Bollinger middle track of 80042 and approaching the lower track of 76629. The MACD green bars are releasing, with DIF-502 crossing below DEA-488, indicating dominant bearish momentum. The KDJ minorly rebounded from the oversold area to 54.9, belonging to a technical recovery after a major drop.

15-minute period: TD-Down4, a minor decline count is advancing, with the price operating below the Bollinger middle track of 77902. Although the MACD shows weak red bars, the momentum is extremely weak; the KDJ is fluctuating at a low around 33, and the rebound lacks strength.

Key price levels: Resistance 78100-78400 (pressure converted under the 1-hour Bollinger middle track), strong resistance 79000-79500; Support 77300, strong support 76853 (the low of this round), breaking below looks at 76000-75000.

ETH (Ethereum)

Current price around 2438. Retracing from a high of 2535, the lowest point reached was 2403.

1-hour period: TD-Down2, with the price running below the Bollinger middle track of 2522, MACD green bars have converged, but the bearish structure remains unchanged. KDJ rebounded to 61.49, with a J value of 83.23; short-term repair momentum is slightly stronger than BTC but still within a major bearish framework.

15-minute period: TD-Down4, the price is closely following the Bollinger lower track of 2434. The MACD has weak red bars, and the KDJ is around 37, with limited rebound height.

Key price levels: Resistance 2460-2478 (near the upper track of the 1-hour Bollinger), strong resistance 2480-2500; Support 2425, strong support 2403 (the low of this round), breaking below looks at 2370-2350.

Technical Qualitative Analysis

The four-hour level shows three consecutive bearish K lines, with the Bollinger bands' three tracks diverging downwards, strengthening the signal for downward trends. Market highs are continuously dropping, establishing a dominant bearish structure. The one-day drop is 2.88%, with selling pressure concentrated and the RSI entering the oversold area needing repair; however, the hourly level's rebound is merely a technical pullback and does not change the bearish trend.

The BTC price has already fallen below EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20, with short-term rebound momentum obviously weakening; although it is still above EMA120, the medium-term trend has not completely reversed, under the macro backdrop of Waller's hawkish stance, the medium-term support may be tested at any time.

2. Jiangye's Core Judgment

First, this is not a washout; it is a real pullback driven by macro factors. Before Waller's speech, the market was still wagering on interest rate cut expectations, with gold hitting new highs and the cryptocurrency circle surging. But Waller's statement "there’s still work to be done” directly shattered the illusion of easing. Gold's drop of $120 is the clearest signal—funds are re-pricing the risks of interest rate hikes. The synchronized plunge of BTC and ETH is not the operators washing out the market, but a passive sell-off under the coordination of major asset classes.

Second, the rebound does not signify a reversal; the main theme is that a rebound is for shorting. The current RSI is oversold, with short-term rebound momentum; the price has slightly recovered from a low of 76853/2403 to 77700/2438, which is a technical pullback after a major decline, providing a better entry position for shorts, not an opportunity for longs to catch the bottom. The four-hour three consecutive bearish candles plus the downward opening of the Bollinger bands have established a bearish structure. Before a clear stop-loss signal appears, all rebounds should primarily be viewed as a continuation of the downtrend.

Third, yesterday morning's short strategy has already yielded significant profits. Bitcoin took down over four thousand points, while Ethereum gained over a hundred points, benefiting those who followed along. This is not luck, but logic—at the turning point of macro changes, going short in accordance with the trend is the most correct choice. Keep holding the short positions patiently; rebounds present opportunities to increase short positions.

Fourth, long positions should only be executed as short-term swing trades, without lingering too long. Weekend liquidity is poor, and prices may show oversold rebounds at support levels. Small positions can be wagered, but don't aim too far; get out at the resistance level. Current spot ETF funds have not yet withdrawn on a large scale, but if rate hike expectations continue to heat up, the withdrawal of funds is merely a matter of time; trade cautiously on the rise. For real-time changes, feel free to communicate and follow up together. Follow the public account Jiangye Observations.

3. 8.29 Specific Operation Strategy

BTC Operations

Short positions (Main Strategy)

Aggressive: Short at a rebound in the 78050-78300 range, stop-loss at 78850, target 77500→77300, break below looks at 76850.

Conservative: Continue to short at a rebound in the 79000-79500 range, defend at 82000, target 78000→77500→77000, breaking looks at 76500→76000→75000, continue to move stop-loss to protect profits.

Long positions (Only short-term swing, light positions on the weekend)

Buy a hand if it stabilizes at a retracement of 75000-75500, defend at 74500, target 76500→77000→77500, breaking looks at 78000→78500→79000.

Note: This is a speculation on oversold rebounds, not a trend long position; take profit at the resistance level and do not hold onto positions.

ETH Operations

Short positions (Main Strategy)

Aggressive: Short in the rebound range of 2460-2472, stop-loss at 2495, target 2435→2425, break below looks at 2403.

Conservative: Continue to short in the rebound range of 2480-2500, defend at 2600, target 2430→2400, breaking looks at 2370→2350, continue to move stop-loss to protect profits.

Long positions (Only short-term swing)

Buy a hand if it stabilizes at a retracement of 2350-2360, defend at 2320, target 2400→2430→2450, breaking looks at 2480→2500→2520.

Gold XAU (Reference)

Following Waller's hawkish remarks, gold dropped $120 to 4480, reaching 4464 during the session. In the short term, there is a demand for repair on the oversold drop, but the broader trend has already turned bearish. Rebounds in the 4520-4550 range should continue to short, targeting 4464→4400; temporary participation in long positions is not advised, as the macro negativity has not fully been digested.

4. Summary of Key Price Levels

Summary: Waller's hawkish stance shattered the expectations of easing, and gold's collapse of a hundred points marks a macro shift, while BTC/ETH's synchronized plunge establishes a bearish structure. The current situation is a rebound following a major drop; it is not a reversal. The main operation theme: rebound means shorting, patiently holding short positions; long positions should only be short-term swings at support levels, exiting at resistance. Weekend liquidity is poor, ensure strict control of positions, and all trades must strictly include stop-losses.

⚠️ Risk warning: The above content is only a technical logic analysis of the market, for reference and communication only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The financial market is highly volatile; contract trading carries very high risks. Please trade rationally, strictly control positions, set your own stop-losses, and take responsibility for profits and losses.

Thank you for the trust and companionship of all family members. The market changes rapidly, and stable compounding is the long-term path. I am Jiangye, see you next time.

For real-time changes, feel free to communicate and follow up together. Follow the public account Jiangye Observations.

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