Today is Friday, and August has also entered its final phase. After two consecutive weeks of strong upward movement in the market, BTC has risen for the second consecutive month on the monthly chart, with August forming a distinct large bullish structure. Although the trend remains strong, after continuous rising, the demand for a technical pullback at the monthly level is becoming increasingly evident.
Particularly as we enter the end of the month and transition into the beginning of the next month, it is crucial to guard against the concentration of profit-taking at high levels.
The current market is more inclined to maintain high-level range fluctuations, and the difficulty of continuing a unilateral upward trend has clearly increased. At this stage, waiting for low-buy opportunities after a pullback to key support is more suitable compared to chasing highs; if a rebound occurs and stagnates in the pressure zone, then short opportunities can be considered.
The most important factor here remains trading volume.
If the price breaks through key resistance but there is no corresponding increase in trading volume, it is easier to form a false breakout or even a bait for longs; only with a substantial increase in volume can we further open up the upward space.
On a macro level, there is still significant uncertainty in the market regarding monetary policy in September, and any changes in expectations during high-level phases could act as a catalyst for profit-taking.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Bearish at high levels, with a focus on preventing the "final dance of baiting longs."
Today BTC once again taught a lesson to the market.
After a one-hour level impact near 81500, it quickly encountered selling pressure, with the price dropping about 1700 points in a short period, indicating that the battle for dominance above 80,000 has clearly escalated.
ETH showed even weaker performance, quickly slumping as it was dragged down by BTC without breaking its previous high.
Currently, BTC has returned to the vicinity of the 2-hour support and the previous rising area for consolidation. Whether it can form effective support here will determine if the short term continues to consolidate at high levels or initiates a larger-level correction.
At present, a change in mindset is needed:
A sudden acceleration at high levels is not necessarily a signal to chase long positions; rather, caution is needed as it may become a window for short sellers to enter.
Especially if it impacts the 80800—81300 area again, if a rapid increase occurs, with volume failing to keep up, followed by leaving a long upper shadow, then it is even more necessary to guard against a second drop after baiting longs.
Support: 79100-79500
Resistance: 80800-81300
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
View: Weaker than BTC, bearish at high levels, 2600 remains an important level.
ETH has recently been significantly weaker than BTC, with the core issue still being the lack of sustained upward momentum in the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
Yesterday, after the price peaked near 2566, bullish momentum quickly diminished, and it has now re-entered a high-level consolidation range. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are gradually tightening, indicating that the current fluctuations are continuously compressing the range of movement, and a new directional choice is approaching.
Particular attention is needed on the 12-hour and daily structures.
Currently, both major cycles show significant adjustment demand, so even if a rapid increase occurs again in the short term, it should not be easily defined as the start of a new rising cycle.
If the ETH/BTC exchange rate cannot show significant strengthening, it will still be difficult for ETH to independently break through 2600.
Thus, it is currently more suitable to:
Not chase during rapid rises, watch for stagnation near resistance; observe for low-buy opportunities after a pullback to key support.
Support: 2470-2480, 2430-2450
Resistance: 2533, 2565, 2600
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