BTC rose by 20%, but I am instead more worried.

From more than sixty thousand to around eighty thousand, a 20% increase in just a week. Not long ago, everyone was worried if there would be a decline, and just a few days later, the market has completely turned around. The entire circle is discussing: can eighty thousand hold? How much room is there above?

But let's take it easy, friends. The more such a surge happens, the easier it is for people to get overly excited; when the price is rising, one might feel they bought too little, and when it falls, they regret having too heavy a position. The most trying aspect of the market is never the ups and downs themselves, but the little position we hold that makes us anxious with every market fluctuation.

Today, I won’t let you guess if the next stop is eighty-five thousand, ninety thousand, or higher. Instead, let’s talk about something a bit counterintuitive: why am I actually more cautious after BTC surged 20% in a week?

Let me clarify: this is not a bearish sentiment, nor am I saying the trend is over. Rather, it’s precisely because the rise has been too rapid, too fast to the point it makes one uneasy. The moment the profit effect kicks in, the easiest thing for people to do is to chase. Especially after watching others’ accounts soar over several days while one’s own position isn’t heavy, the feeling of “if I don’t get on board now, I’ll miss my chance” can really leave one restless.

The more such times, the more you need to stay calm. Don't just fixate on how much higher it can go; first, understand: who is buying now? Is there real money underneath supporting this wave of rise? If you can figure out this question, it is much more useful than blindly guessing price points.

Futures can drive prices up rapidly using leverage, but the money flowing into ETFs represents real cash entering to buy the spot. In future, when encountering a swift surge, remember a simple judgment method: don’t just look at whether the price is rising; while the price is increasing, is the money coming in? If prices go up but funds are flowing out, then you need to be cautious; if the price rises and ETF funds continue to flow back in, at least it indicates one thing: this isn’t just a passive rise squeezed from short sellers, there are indeed new funds stepping in. The nature of both scenarios is entirely different.

Moreover, ETFs were clearly seeing a continuous outflow before, and now turning back to enter the market also shows that institutions’ interest in BTC has returned. One more point to note is that the current BTC is no longer just “the crypto circle revolving around itself.” This statement is becoming less accurate. Don’t underestimate this small change; the market was previously looking for speculative themes, and it is now seriously discussing asset allocation value. This is worth watching closely in the long term.

Why has this wave surged so quickly? Simply put, it’s because three forces have collided: short positions were first squeezed, assisting the price surge, then the real cash from ETFs followed, and finally, macro expectations opened up space, naturally causing the market to soar quickly. But whether it can continue depends on that core point: will money keep entering? How far a market wave can reach is never dictated by social media hype; it depends on funds and data being realized step by step.

Speaking of positions, let’s talk a bit more. When the market is declining, having cash in hand allows you to make choices. The most frustrating part is not missing out; it’s when an opportunity you are particularly optimistic about falls to the price level you want to buy at, but when you check your pocket, you find you have no money left. Cash itself is a type of position; it buys you the option to make your next move.

Some friends say, I haven’t gone all in; I bought ETH, SOL, and several other coins, which is quite diversified. But this may not necessarily count as diversification. It may seem like you've purchased five or six different types of coins, but if they are all high-volatility crypto assets, when a systemic downturn occurs, they are likely to fall together. True diversification is not about the number of coins bought, but about whether your money is bearing different types of risks. A variety of coins does not equate to genuine risk diversification.

Along the lines of cash, idle money doesn’t necessarily have to sit still. Some portion of funds may not be needed in the short term, and if you don’t want to take on BTC's huge volatility, you might consider Binance savings. For example, the current USDT savings product offers quite a decent annual return.

If you want to try Binance savings, you can register through the exclusive link below:

👉 https://jump.do/zh-Hans/xlink-proxy?id=3

(Invitation code: aicoin668, enjoy a 10% rebate)

After registration, you can get started in three steps: 1️⃣ Prepare USDT: you can buy coins or deposit directly. 2️⃣ Open "Earn Coins", search for USDT. 3️⃣ Select the savings product and subscribe. It’s very user-friendly for beginners, with no significant operational barriers. If you can't manage to register, you can contact customer service for step-by-step assistance.

True diversification means different money holds different risks. Market trends can be speculative, but positions must be managed personally. No one can predict how high BTC will eventually rise. But how you allocate your funds is something you can think through in advance. If it rises, having a position allows you to reap profits; if it falls, having cash on hand lets you buy the dip. This way, no matter where the market goes next, at least you won’t be led by the market's whims.

As usual, a disclaimer: the prices of crypto assets are highly volatile, and there is a risk of principal loss. The above content is for informational reference and data analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please be sure to consider your risk tolerance and financial situation and make independent and rational decisions.

Currently, there are live broadcasts every day, welcome to keep following AiCoin friends! Reserve in advance👇

https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/live/list?tab=upcoming

Join our community, let’s discuss together and become stronger!

Official Telegram community:

https://t.me/aicoincn

AiCoin Chinese Twitter:

https://x.com/AiCoinzh

Aster rebate:

https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2

Hype rebate:

https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/AICOIN88

Binance rebate: