Bitcoin is experiencing wide fluctuations, the bullish pattern has not been broken, with 78,000 and 80,000 being critical dividing lines.

In recent days, the overall structure of Bitcoin has not fundamentally changed.

Since starting to rise around $63,000, the market has been fluctuating upward, and after a pullback, it continues to reach new highs. During the entire upward process, there is one very key position that has not been effectively broken down—around $76,000.

So, from the current hourly, four-hour, and daily structure perspective, the market still leans towards bullish.

However, there have been some notable changes in the market in the past couple of days.

The previous upward rhythm was very obvious: rise, pullback, rise again, pullback, continue to rise. But today's pullback is obviously more intense than before, with prices quickly dropping toaround $78,000—$78,100.

At the same time, the market is impacted by a short-term news item: a wallet was attacked, resulting in the theft of about 1,700 Bitcoin. However, most of the stolen assets remain in the attacker's wallet and have not significantly entered the market circulation.

Therefore, this incident mainly affects short-term sentiment rather than directly increasing the spot supply in the market. Because of this, although Bitcoin has shown a noticeable pullback, the downward pressure remains limited.

1. $78,000 is the location that truly needs attention today

First, let's look at the hourly chart.

Today, after the market stopped dropping around $78,000, it gradually rebounded, reaching a maximum ofaround $79,500.

But the problem is also very obvious:

After rebounding twice, it failed to effectively break through $79,500.

So currently, the structure on the hourly chart is a typical weak rebound, with immediate pressure at$79,500—$79,600.

Next, let's look at the four-hour chart.

The previous upward movement peaked ataround $81,200, and then began to show continuous declines.

This time, after a quick dip around $78,100, the price was pulled back, making this position very interesting.

If we regard $78,000—$78,100 as a horizontal level, it has become an important support that the market has repeatedly validated recently.

Therefore, there are currently three very key positions in the market:

$79,500: First short-term resistance

$80,000: Core resistance

$78,000—$78,100: Core support

And $81,200 serves as the previous high resistance.

2. The daily line has not been damaged, but today's candlestick should be cautioned

The daily line still maintains an upward structure.

On August 22, there was a bearish candle, but for most of the remaining time, it still maintained a bullish trend.

However, today's candlestick is quite special.

The price peaked around $81,200, then quickly fell back and is currently back around $79,000.

As of now, this candlestick has shown a significant upper shadow, while there is also some support below.

Since the daily line has not officially closed, it cannot yet be simply defined as a top reversal.

What truly needs attention is:

Can $78,000 be effectively broken again.

If $78,000 is broken again, then this pullback after the high might gradually evolve into a more complete top structure.

Once $76,000 is effectively broken, the entire upward structure will clearly be damaged, and the market mindset will need to start turning bearish.

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3. Why can’t we just follow the big players to short?

There is another interesting market piece of information today.

Some friends mentioned that some accounts with larger funds have started to attempt to short.

This news itself is worth referencing, but I believe we can’t just follow to short because of the words "big players shorting."

The reason is simple:

The trading methods of large funds and retail investors are completely different.

Large funds can manage short-term fluctuations through adding positions, partial entry, and greater capital endurance.

The biggest risk for ordinary traders is betting prematurely before confirmation at key positions.

Therefore, what we should really observe now is not whether "the big players are long or short," but:

Are we breaking key positions or not.

If $78,000 holds, the bullish structure remains.

If $78,000 is effectively broken, that means the market begins to show real structural changes.

4. Trading volume and open interest: important support at around $78,100

From the perspective of trading volume and open interest, today’s decline is also quite interesting.

After the price peaked and then began to drop, the trading volume clearly increased, and open interest showed changes.

Especially when there was a quick dip near $78,100, trading volume notably surged.

This indicates that there was a significant round of deleveraging here.

At the same time, after the price stopped falling near $78,100, open interest began to increase again to some extent.

In other words:

There is currently a lack of continuity in chasing long positions above and short positions below.

This is also why the recent market has become increasingly difficult to trade.

During rises, there is no continuity, and during declines, there has not been sustained selling; the entire market is entering a clearly wide-ranging oscillation phase.

5. Technical indicators are starting to show divergences

Now looking at several periods together, the situation becomes clearer.

The hourly chart has started to weaken.

The MACD on the hourly chart has formed a death cross, the DMI is also in a bearish dominant state, and the BBI is similarly in a bearish area.

So, in the short term, we really cannot be too optimistic.

However, on the four-hour chart, the situation is completely different.

The four-hour chart still maintains a bullish arrangement, with the EMA12 serving as important support; though the MACD has shown a death cross, it is still in a high-level digestion phase overall.

Looking further at the daily and weekly charts:

The MACD on the daily chart remains in a golden cross state above the zero axis, and the weekly structure has not been damaged either.

The DMI shows a similar situation:

Hourly chart is bearish, four-hour chart is bullish, daily chart is bullish, weekly chart is bullish.

So, the real contradiction lies here.

It’s not that the entire market has turned bearish, but ratherthe short term is digesting previous gains, while the larger cycles still maintain bullishness.

6. Fibonacci again suggests the $78,000—$80,000 range

From the four-hour Fibonacci perspective, after this round of rise and pullback, it still receives support near 0.618.

From the daily structure perspective, the upper 0.886 corresponds exactly tothe integer level of $80,000.

Thus, a quite obvious resonance range has formed:

Bottom: around $78,000

Top: around $80,000

These two positions are currently the most worthy of attention.

If $78,000 holds, the market still has the possibility to challenge $80,000 or even $81,200 again.

If $80,000 can stand firm again, then the previous high of $81,200 will once again enter the market's view.

But if $78,000 is effectively broken, the market needs to focus further on supports around $76,800, $76,000, or even $75,000.

7. The most important thing right now is not to guess the direction, but to wait for confirmation on the 4-hour chart

After considering all cycles, my judgment on the market is actually quite simple:

It is currently in a wide range of oscillation, and the overall tilt is still bullish.

The short-term bearishness is merely because the market needs to digest the deviations caused by the previous rapid rise.

Therefore, the most taboo thing in this stage is to see a big bearish candle and directly think the bull market is over, nor should we immediately chase long positions after seeing a rebound candlestick.

What truly determines the next stage direction isthe closing line on the 4-hour level.

If the 4-hour effectively breaks below $78,000, the nature of this failed high will become increasingly clear, and attention will need to focus on $76,800, $76,000, and even lower regions.

However, if $78,000 can continue to hold and the price reclaims $80,000, then the market has a chance to challenge $81,200 again.

So next, keep an eye on two numbers:

$78,000——Bullish defense line

$80,000——Key resistance above

If $78,000 holds, the market remains in a bullish oscillation.

If $80,000 stands firm, the market has a chance to move upwards again.

But if $78,000 is truly broken, then we need to consider whether a bearish trend is forming.

At this stage,patience is more important than guessing direction until a clear choice is made.

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