- He shorted, shouldn't he make money as the stock market falls?

This is a comment following the article "The 'Shipwreck of the Stock Trading Prodigy'" published on August 3rd.

Shorting is indeed one of the tools he used. However, I could not find relevant details about how he shorts, what targets he shorts, and under what conditions he shorts, so I cannot determine whether he made a profit or a loss from shorting, and thus did not share this operation of his.

Seeing his example made me think of another recent hot figure who became famous during the 2008 U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, one of the 'big shorters', Michael Burry.

The reason Michael Burry is very popular recently is mainly because for a considerable time, he has been frequently making headlines by massively shorting various AI stocks (including Nvidia).

Since his operations are short-term, let's take a look at his recent 'shorting' from a short-term perspective. Frankly speaking, his performance, at least so far, is quite average.

In the future, if he continues to maintain this operation and short position, and is able to turn the tables and achieve greatness again, at least one of the following two conditions must be met:

First, under the condition that his funds can still support him, the market really must have a reversal, turning downward, and it must be a significant decline.

Second, he must have enough funds to continuously add to his positions, to ensure that he can survive until the market proves his judgment true.

However, both of these conditions are very challenging.

In a recent article, I shared several insights from senior masters on 'shorting'. The pitfalls and failures those masters experienced when shorting could easily happen to his shorting actions.

Wishing him luck.

I increasingly feel that this tool should not be approached by ordinary people at all.

- It's just a scam, AI has nothing to do with them, it's all about big companies.

This is a comment following the article "From AI Operating System to Zero: Innovation Without a Business Model is Just Fireworks" published on August 6th.

I do not agree with the first half of the viewpoint in this comment. I do not think they are scams; I believe they are very great explorations.

However, the second half of this sentence resonated with me to some extent – 'it's all about big companies.'

I would slightly modify this sentence to read, 'it's all about things with extremely high barriers to entry.'

Since the birth of GPT, at least within the circles we are familiar with (like the AI circle in mainland China), no matter how lively, noisy, and attractive the entire AI ecosystem seems, we can discover a harsh reality:

From the perspective of wealth growth and career development, this liveliness actually has no connection at all with the vast majority of ordinary people, or we could say that ordinary people, at least in this round of AI boom, have found it difficult to find opportunities to change their social class apart from greatly improving their efficiency in life due to the use of AI tools.

Now, any well-known domestic AI company (whether it's a hardware chip company or a software large model company) has founders with extremely high barriers: top-tier education, elite schools, or top networking......

At the very least, it’s Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Zhejiang University, and commonly Tsinghua University, University of Science and Technology of China......

Can ordinary people meet this condition?

This is still about entrepreneurship.

What about investment?

The popular AI stocks on the A-shares are mostly on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and the first condition for investors to participate in buying stocks on this board is 'the average assets of the first 20 trading days must be ≥ 500,000 yuan.'

Can ordinary people meet this condition?

As for buying popular AI stocks in Hong Kong and U.S. markets, it also involves foreign assets, fund transfers, tax issues......

Can ordinary people meet this condition?

Since last year, I have been hearing a very optimistic phrase, which conveys the idea that: the rise of AI will give birth to a large number of 'one-person companies.'

Yes, we now have amazing video generation tools, programming tools, design tools......

People are cheering: ordinary people can now write code, create videos, and make products.

But nearly a year has passed, have we seen any impressive 'one-person company' rise?

Indeed, overseas, a considerable number of 'one-person companies' have emerged, but those founders still need to meet the first condition I mentioned earlier:

Top-tier education, elite schools, or top networks.

The extreme concentration of wealth effects in the AI ecosystem sharply contrasts with the broad-based wealth effects formed in the crypto ecosystem.

So from this perspective, I still prefer the crypto ecosystem.

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