Yesterday, the market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations.

There was no passionate surge, nor was there a thrilling dive. If you stared at the minute chart for an entire day, you might feel drowsy.

But this kind of "calm" has made many people feel a bit uneasy.

Because the market is undergoing a subtle "power transition"—from "listening to what the Federal Reserve says" to "watching how the data turns out."

1. The good news is "no rate hike," but then what?

In the past week, a series of weaker-than-expected non-farm reports and mild CPI and PPI data finally gave the market a sigh of relief: the sword of Damocles of rate hikes has been temporarily removed.

This should have been a reason for risk assets to rejoice.

But strangely, the anticipated surge did not materialize. The bit of comfort brought by the inflation data seems to have been quickly offset by another kind of anxiety.

It's like a person who is used to being led suddenly has the leash loosened but then does not know where to go.

2. The new chairman's "new rules": You must be self-reliant

The shift in market focus stems from the new policy style introduced by the Federal Reserve's new chairman, Kevin Walsh.

Unlike his predecessor, who was keen on delivering clear policy signals, Walsh prefers that the market not over-interpret every word and term used by the Federal Reserve. He urges investors to return to the most fundamental principle—focusing on the economic fundamentals themselves.

What does that mean?

For example: Previously, the market was like a "well-behaved student," always wanting to extract key exam topics (rate hike or cut) from the Federal Reserve teacher. Now this new teacher says, "Don't ask me; go study on your own. The exam content is the textbook (economic data) itself."

When the decision-makers' words and actions become inconsistent or simply stop providing clear signals, the market loses that "psychological anchor." In this situation, everyone has no choice but to keep a close eye on the two most core coordinates, employment and prices.

This means that each future non-farm report and each period of CPI data could create much larger ripples than before.

Because everyone is no longer guessing "what the Federal Reserve will think," but rather making buying and selling decisions directly based on the data itself.

3. The confusion of digital currencies: waiting for the next breakthrough

This macro-level confusion is also reflected in the digital currency market.

The current market structure shows that the trend is still fluctuating within a weak range. It is like a swimmer struggling in deep water who needs to find a clear point of force to get to shore, but until then, can only float up and down with the current.

4. Today’s perspective: the tug of war between pressure and support

From a purely technical standpoint, the 4-hour level structure still leans towards a weak consolidation.

If we draw a line around the recent volatility range, the pressure area accumulating at the top is roughly around 1919; while the short-term support platform that has been tested multiple times is located near 1853.

Before the direction becomes clear, the market will likely continue to exhaust both bulls and bears' patience within this range.

5. Two scenarios, dual preparations

In the face of this "line-less" fluctuating market, the worst mistake is to chase tops and bottoms. A more rational approach is to prepare for two scenarios around the key positions:

• Scenario one: Resistance to rebound. If the price repeatedly tests upward in the fluctuation but seems hesitant and lacks strength when approaching the upper pressure area (near 1919), then this weak rebound may be the moment to observe potential pressure.

• Scenario two: Breaking of support. If the worse situation occurs, and the 4-hour or hourly candlestick clearly closes below the key support level (1853), it means the short-term consolidation floor has been breached, and the market may seek a deeper buffer zone downward.

• To learn more details and specific actions, see you in the live broadcast tonight, where we will analyze the market and observe the logic in real-time.

  

  （TS: Three apps can be downloaded from the app store, scan to add）

  The above analysis is for market communication only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; participation requires risk control and rational decision-making.

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