1. Summary of today's core news

1. Macroeconomic: July CPI meets expectations, hits a new four-month low. After the good news is realized, it follows a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" trend. The U.S. July CPI rose by 3.4% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, fully meeting market expectations and marking a new low in nearly four months, confirming the downtrend in inflation. After the data was released, the market's probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September was cut in half from previous highs to about 34%. U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar index weakened, and U.S. stock futures rebounded simultaneously.
However, the cryptocurrency market showed a typical "good news realization" trend: Bitcoin briefly surged to $64,400 before rapidly falling back, failing to hold the $64,000 threshold. The core drag stems from the repeated deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations and the persistent geopolitical risks, coupled with the market pricing in good news ahead of time, leading funds to take profits based on the data release, resulting in insufficient overall rebound momentum.

2. On-chain funds: BlackRock continues to withdraw coins to support the market, with institutional rebalancing becoming more pronounced.
On-chain data shows that the BlackRock ETF address withdrew 1,019.27 BTC and 301.77 ETH from Coinbase yesterday. Institutional spot positions continue to accumulate, providing underlying support for the market.
Whale activities showed significant differentiation: a certain whale transferred a total of 2,300 BTC (about $142 million) to the market maker Wintermute, indicating potential selling pressure; at the same time, a whale withdrew 4,650 ETH (about $8.77 million) from institutional channels, intensifying the long-short divergence.
Notable market maker GSR's latest rebalancing model increased Solana's position allocation to 43.6%, making it the largest holding in its portfolio, while Bitcoin's position was reduced to 16.9%, signaling a clear rotation of institutional funds toward high-elasticity altcoins.

3. Sentiment and sectors: Structural differentiation in a broad market downturn, with funds leaning towards small-cap thematic speculation.
Out of 390 statistical cryptocurrencies in the entire market, only 79 rose while 311 fell, with the overall large-cap market under pressure, but local themes remained relatively active. Small-cap coins PROM and COTI saw single-day gains of over 30%, with funds speculating around event-driven assets; meanwhile, leading DeFi projects like Uniswap and Curve faced continued selling, with daily declines over 5%.
The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with the fear and greed index hovering around 30 in the fear zone, showing insufficient willingness for incremental funds to enter the market, and existing funds rapidly rotating between large and small caps.

4. Industry dynamics: Diverging expectations for listed company holdings, with custody service revenues showing high growth.
Metaplanet, a holding company, officially denied rumors in the market about selling BTC, stabilizing market confidence in holdings; meanwhile, custody institution BitGo reported nearly 80% year-on-year growth in Q2 revenue but still recorded a net loss of $19 million, reflecting the rapid expansion of industry compliance business while the profit model remains to be improved.


Mainstream coin strategies and entry point references
The following is a technical analysis summary for market viewpoint reference only and does not constitute any trading advice.

1. Bitcoin (BTC)
Market characterization: The 4-hour level remains within the fluctuation range of $63,000 to $64,500. The CPI good news failed to drive an effective breakout, with the Bollinger Bands continuing to narrow, indicating a balance between long and short forces; the $64,000 threshold above has turned into short-term resistance, while $63,300 below serves as recent fluctuation support, maintaining the mindset of waiting for direction after continued range fluctuations.

• Key support:
◦ First support: $63,300 – $63,500 (short-term holding level for the day, recent fluctuation lower edge)
◦ Strong support: $62,700 – $62,800 (watershed between long and short, breaking below would return to a weak trend)

• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: $64,200 – $64,400 (daily high + short-term moving average resistance)
◦ Strong resistance: $64,800 – $65,000 (integer threshold + previous dense transaction area)

• Reference thoughts:
◦ If it stabilizes after a pullback to the $63,200-$63,400 range, light positions can be tried for long, with stop-loss set below $62,800
◦ If it rebounds to the $64,200-$64,400 range and faces resistance, short positions may be initiated, with stop-loss set above $64,800

◦ Avoid chasing highs or cutting losses under insufficient volume, primarily focus on quick entries and exits within the range, and follow trends after effective breakthroughs at key positions.

2. Ethereum (ETH)
Market characterization: The trend is stronger than Bitcoin, with solid support around $1,860. ETF fund inflows and whale withdrawals provide fundamental support; however, the $1,900 integer threshold still exerts psychological pressure. The 4-hour level fluctuation center is gradually rising, maintaining a good overall repair structure, but independent upward momentum still requires matching volume.

• Key support:
◦ First support: $1,865 – $1,875 (short-term holding level for the day, fluctuation center)
◦ Strong support: $1,840 – $1,850 (boundary between long and short, breaking below would slow down rebound rhythm)

• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: $1,900 – $1,910 (integer threshold + daily high point pressure)
◦ Strong resistance: $1,930 – $1,935 (100-day moving average resistance)

• Reference thoughts:
◦ If it stabilizes after a pullback to the $1,855-$1,865 range, light positions can be tried for long, with stop-loss set below $1,840
◦ If it rebounds to the $1,895-$1,905 range and faces resistance, short positions may be initiated, with stop-loss set above $1,920

◦ If volume effectively holds above $1,910, the focus can be on reaching the $1,930-$1,935 range.

3. Solana (SOL)
Market characterization: Supported by news of institutional rebalancing and accumulation, its overall performance is moderate, with effective support around $75; however, on-chain activity has not shown a significant rebound, and the market's independence remains insufficient, overall following the large market's fluctuations, showing better elasticity than most altcoins, and treating it with an intraday range-banding approach.

• Key support:
◦ First support: $74.8 – $75.2 (short-term holding level for the day)
◦ Strong support: $73.5 – $73.8 (boundary between long and short, breaking below would return to a weak trend)

• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: $76.5 – $77.0 (near previous high)
◦ Strong resistance: $78.0 – $78.5 (mid-term dense transaction area)

• Reference thoughts:
◦ If it stabilizes after a pullback to the $74.5-$75.0 range, light positions can be tried for long, with stop-loss set below $73.8
◦ If it rebounds to the $76.5-$77.0 range and faces resistance, short positions may be initiated, with stop-loss set above $77.8

◦ A volume breakout above $77 can extend to the $78-$78.5 range, while breaking below $73.5 should be avoided.
Supplementary operational reminders
1. Following the realization of the CPI positive news, the market lacks new catalysts, and the fluctuation pattern is likely to remain intact, with the geopolitical situation still posing risks of repetition. It is recommended to operate with light positions and strict stop-losses to avoid large bets on direction.
2. Core intra-day variables to observe: Technology stocks' performance linked to the U.S. stock market after opening, the trend of the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, and the subsequent funding direction from whale addresses.

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