One hour K-line chart

News

• U.S. inflation data (CPI/PPI) release and interest rate cut expectations: Recent U.S. July CPI data shows a moderate decline (year-on-year 3.4%), further consolidating market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September, providing continued support for non-yielding assets like gold in the medium to long term. However, following the favorable news, some previous long positions opted to cash out at high levels, limiting short-term breakout momentum.

• Safe-haven demand and geopolitical situation: The geopolitical situation remains uncertain, combined with a gentle decline in U.S. bond yields, continually supporting gold's safe-haven value, with strong buying interest at lower levels.

• Large traders and institutional movements: After gold prices broke through $4400, some FOMO buying emerged, along with short covering, but at the $4450 level, significant institutional profit-taking pressure was encountered, leading to a technical pullback in prices.

Technical Analysis (1-hour level)

• Price and K-line pattern: The current price is at $4406.73. In the previous phase, gold prices surged to $4449.39 along the ascending channel, creating a new high before retreating. Currently, it is consolidating in the $4400–$4415 range, showing a high-level corrective pattern.

• Moving average system (MA):

  • MA5 (4411) and MA10 (4409) are running above the current price and turning downward, creating short-term direct pressure.

  • MA30 (4404) and MA52 (4397) form convergence support below, and the bullish arrangement has not been completely damaged, with the price testing the effectiveness of MA30 support.

• Technical indicators:

  • RSI (6,13,24): RSI1 (6) is at 50.06, RSI2 (13) is at 53.16, indicating a retreat from the previously overbought area back to around the 50 midline, showing that short-term overbought pressure has been largely released, entering a neutral game between bulls and bears.

  • TD sequence: A TD 9/13 reversal signal appeared at the high of $4449.39, triggering a pullback. The current TD sequence count is Up 4, still in the stage of regaining momentum.

• Key support and resistance levels:

  • First resistance level: $4412–$4415 (MA5/MA10 overlapping pressure zone)

  • Second resistance level: $4450 (previous high and integer level)

  • First support level: $4397–$4400 (MA52 and $4400 psychological level)

  • Second support level: $4370 (previous fluctuation platform low)

Operation direction

It is recommended to adopt a slightly bullish, key level dip-buying strategy, avoiding chasing highs and lows in the directionless area around the midline:

• Trial position entry: Lightly buy in the $4398 - $4403 range (defending based on MA52 and the $4400 level).

• Adding position levels: After breaking and stabilizing above $4418, add positions; or after a deep retracement and stabilization around $4375, add positions on the left side.

• Take profit levels:

  • First take profit level: $4435 - $4440 (lock in profits in batches).

  • Second take profit level: $4450 - $4460 (approaching the previous high zone).

• Stop loss level: Exit if effectively dropping below $4390 (disrupting the hourly rise structure).

• Position management: The first trial position should be controlled at 10% - 15%, with total positions not exceeding 30%.

Risk warning

• Risk of breaking key support: If the price fails to maintain above $4397 (MA52) after opening, it may trigger technical stop-loss selling, probing downward towards the $4370 support.

  • Countermeasure: It is strictly forbidden to hold positions without stop-loss. A decisive stop-loss should be executed if breaking below $4390, waiting for a stabilization signal below before re-establishing positions.

• Evening PPI data impact: Tonight (August 13), the U.S. PPI producer price index will be released. If the data is unexpectedly strong, it may drive U.S. bond yields to rebound and suppress gold prices.

  • Countermeasure: Reduce positions to below 10% or push for a breakeven loss in the 15 minutes before the data release to avoid abnormal volatility at the moment of data announcement.
    

    

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