After the market oscillated for 5 consecutive days at a high level, it finally chose to break down. The trend yesterday was quite deceptive; during the day, it continuously oscillated and rose, easily giving the illusion of a "bullish breakthrough" in terms of both time and space. However, as the mood for chasing long positions gradually warmed up, the market suddenly weakened in the evening, even dropping below the previous day's starting range, with long positions undergoing concentrated liquidation.

The biggest variable now is tonight's U.S. CPI data. Before and after the data release, the market often experiences rapid spikes, false breakouts, and even mutual slaughter of longs and shorts. Therefore, it is highly unadvisable to chase rises and falls at this stage. Compared to betting on the data results in advance, it is more sensible to wait for the first round of violent fluctuations to end and for the market to choose a direction before participating, as the risk-reward ratio is more reasonable.

In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network has been about $116.55 million. The derivatives market for BTC and ETH has a net short bias overall, indicating that short-term sentiment has significantly weakened. However, after continuous declines, the short cycle has also started to accumulate technical repair demands.

Therefore, the core logic currently can be summarized as:

Small cycle looks for a rebound, large cycle still looks for adjustment; participation in the rebound is possible, but it should not be defined as a reversal for now.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

Viewpoint: Daytime oscillation repair, evening waits for CPI to determine direction.

BTC is currently operating around 63700, testing the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Band, which is also an important support and resistance conversion area recently.

63700 is very critical.

If it only briefly drops below before quickly recovering, it indicates that there is still support below, and there exists a chance for continued repair in the short term; however, if there is an effective entity breakdown on the 4-hour level, it means the previous oscillation platform has further failed, and the daily adjustment space may continue to open up.

On the cycle front, there is currently a clear polarization:

Cycles below 12 hours have gradually acquired rebound conditions, but the daily line is still in a bearish adjustment cycle.

Therefore, even if a rebound occurs today, it is more appropriate to define it as a technical repair after a decline rather than a trend reversal. To truly turn strong again, it is still necessary to recover the key resistance above, accompanied by an increase in trading volume.

Support: 63300-63500, 62700
Resistance: 64800-65300, 65500-66000

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

Viewpoint: Daytime repair view, focus on high short opportunities after the rebound.

After a failed surge near 1897 yesterday, ETH quickly fell back, probing a low around 1852 before showing slight repair, indicating that short-term bearish momentum has been somewhat released.

Currently, the price has dropped below the middle track of the Bollinger Band around 1888, testing support near the lower track around 1848.

ETH needs to pay special attention to one characteristic: **emotional elasticity is usually greater than BTC.** When the market surges quickly, the increase is easy to amplify, and similarly, deeper drops are more likely. Therefore, one should not simply copy BTC's stop-loss distances, as it is easy to be swept out during normal fluctuations.

The cycle aspect is similar to BTC:

There is a rebound demand below 12 hours, but the 12-hour and daily lines are still in a bearish adjustment phase.

Thus, if a repair occurs during the day, attention can be paid to the pressure after the rebound; if CPI triggers a rapid drop, then focus on whether effective support can be formed near 1850 and 1820.

Support: 1850-1855, 1820-1832
Resistance: 1888, 1900-1930, 1950

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This article is originally published by 【Huijing Community】 and represents personal opinions only. Due to a certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please judge rationally and operate cautiously.
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