On the morning of August 12, the cryptocurrency market was once again shrouded in "panic." BTC temporarily fell back to around 63,725 USDT, down about 0.5% in the past 24 hours; but beneath the surface calm, there was a severe reshuffle of funds. According to AiCoin data, the net outflow of BTC in the past 24 hours was about 741 million US dollars, ETH saw a net outflow of 524 million US dollars, and SOL had a net outflow of 131 million US dollars, totaling approximately 1.396 billion US dollars for the three major assets.

What is more concerning is the chain reaction on the leverage side. At the same time, about 676 million US dollars were liquidated across the network, with long positions accounting for as much as 69%, meaning this round of decline is causing previously leveraged long positions betting on a rebound to be forced to surrender. In terms of sentiment indicators, the Fear and Greed Index has fallen back to 27, re-entering the "fear" zone and has significantly cooled from last month's peak.

However, this round of decline is not a "full retreat." Alongside the outflow of 1.396 billion US dollars, LINK saw a net inflow of about 34 million US dollars, while DOGE experienced a net inflow of about 54 million US dollars, rising approximately 4.27% and 3.33% respectively in the past 24 hours. Funds are concentrating from weaker assets to a few strong varieties, shifting from the old narrative of "general decline – general rise" to a new rhythm of "differentiation – rotation."

1. Who is selling—4 groups of whales' profiles

[The "short wall" above 64,000: Four wallets collaboratively placing orders]

On-chain data shows that four wallets have cumulatively opened short positions on BTC worth about 340 million US dollars at the 64,000 USDT price level—

A whale using 40x leverage to short BTC increased its position by 1,010 BTC three times this morning, bringing its short position to 1,792.56 BTC, valued at about 114 million US dollars, setting a record high for position size, with the average opening price updated to 63,999 USDT, currently showing a floating profit of about 500,000 US dollars. (0xff84dd888de8ac2ed9a44860dc44e57025d68f1d)

Coincidentally, HL trader DoshiAtoll opened a 1,576.23 BTC short position at 40x leverage this morning, valued at 100 million US dollars, with an opening price of $64,039, currently showing a floating profit of 526,000 US dollars. (0x66f889094739dbb7d20aa60f645acd88feba75a9)

3. Shorting 1,200 BTC ($76.45 million), price $64,418, floating profit 900,000

(0x8c96e5a2d770f9f2c9d2464ce4e741df0b2bca57)

4. Shorting 806 BTC ($51.35 million), price $64,398, floating profit 600,000

(0x431f1cbb550be14da5cb3da1157010d1e83a6cee)

On a single day, more than 340 million US dollars of BTC short positions are concentrated above 64,000 US dollars, forming a clear technical resistance zone.

Real-time tracking of on-chain whales: https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/hyperliquid-api  

2. Who is secretly accumulating—two streams of contrarian funds

[The 88 million US dollars inflow into LINK / DOGE]
While mainstream coins are experiencing bloodletting, LINK saw a net inflow of 34 million US dollars (24h +4.27%) and DOGE saw a net inflow of 54 million US dollars (24h +3.33%). The strong performance of these two assets over the past week (LINK’s 7-day increase exceeded 9%, DOGE’s 7-day increase surpassed 7%) has allowed them to break away from the "mainstream coin β," beginning to emerge market independently—this is a classic signal of capital rotating from β assets to α assets.

[Systematic "ballast": Strategy still accumulating]

Strategy CEO Phong Le stated in an interview with Fox News that "Strategy plans to continue accumulating Bitcoin within this year." Additionally, with Trump's media company holding over 12,000 BTC (holding more than Tesla), it is clear that sovereign/market-listed companies and these types of "non-trading" buyers have not exited; they do not look at daily charts, only at quarterly allocations—this is the fundamental reason why BTC can find "support" around 62,000.

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ pointed out that the NUPL of ETH on the Binance platform has fallen back to around -0.35—this value has appeared many times historically near important price bottoms; however, analysts also note that first touches usually accompany secondary pullbacks, and true bottom confirmation requires ETH to maintain the current low and for NUPL to rebound above -0.35. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is an indicator that measures the market's unrealized gains or losses; when it is negative it means the average holder is in a floating loss state—historical experience shows that when NUPL falls to the -0.3 to -0.5 range, it often corresponds to phase bottoms because "trapped chips are unwilling to sell anymore."

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While mainstream coins are experiencing bloodletting, star altcoins have already seen funds flowing back, and "widespread panic" and "local opportunities" are coexisting. In the short term, it is more suitable to "lightly observe + track the capital in strong varieties"; blindly chasing shorts and heavily bottom-fishing are not optimal choices at this moment.

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