The weekend is traditionally the time window with the weakest liquidity in the cryptocurrency market.

Due to the closure of the US stock market, the influence of traditional markets is reduced, and the cryptocurrency space is more easily driven by sudden news and market sentiment. Historically, there have been multiple instances where weekends saw rapid surges or plunges triggered by news, so for contract trading, strictly setting stop losses is more important than predicting the direction.

The current macro environment still shows no obvious improvement.

The market continues to have a high expectation of further tightening of the Federal Reserve's policy in September, with the high interest rate environment continuing to suppress the valuations of risk assets. Meanwhile, historically, August is generally a weaker month for the cryptocurrency market, and seasonal factors keep market sentiment cautious.

In terms of geopolitical issues, the US-Iran negotiations remain the biggest external variable recently.

If substantive progress is made in the negotiations, market risk appetite may improve; conversely, if the talks fall back into a deadlock, risk aversion may quickly rise, causing new disturbances to the cryptocurrency market.

Overall, the market is still in a consolidation phase, and for the trends to truly develop, continuous inflow of capital in conjunction with the macro environment is still required.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: Range consolidation, short-term bias bullish, pay attention to the resistance area of 65500-66000.

The overall structure of BTC has recently improved.

From a technical perspective:

• After forming a double bottom structure on August 1 and August 3, the price broke out with volume above 64000, and short-term bulls regained control;

• The 4-hour cycle continues to run above the short-term moving average, indicating that the short-term trend still leans towards recovery;

• However, the upward pressure remains significant, and to truly confirm further strengthening, it still needs to break through a higher level of resistance.

Currently, the focus should be on the 65500-66000 area.

• If it can break through with volume and stabilize, it is likely to open up further upward space;

• If it faces repeated obstacles, the market may return to a range consolidation and even test the lower support again.

In addition, there are recent signs of a slight cooling of ETF funding, with institutional incremental demand weakening compared to earlier, indicating that the short-term market still requires observation of whether trading volume can continue to expand.

Key Positions

Support:

• 64150-64650

• 63500-64000

Resistance:

• 65500-66000

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: Slightly bullish consolidation, the repair market is still not over.

ETH is currently still in the consolidation repair phase within a bearish trend.

Although a clear rebound occurred after continuous adjustments from around 1982 to about 1820, the overall large-scale downward trend has not been completely reversed.

From a technical perspective:

• The 4-hour level still maintains a downward channel structure;

• The short-term repair effort has strengthened somewhat, but it is largely a technical rebound;

• The current strategy is more suitable for range trading rather than blindly chasing prices.

Recommended trading thoughts:

• If there is a quick dip to the support area, consider watching for low buy opportunities;

• If there is an attempt to challenge the pressure area of 1920-1930 and above, then closely observe the pressure situation and consider realizing profits at high levels;

• If it continues to trade sideways, patiently wait for a breakout in direction before following the trend.

Key Positions

Support: 1905-1880-1892-1860

Resistance: 1920-1930-1950-1982

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