In recent days, the “AI prodigy” trading stocks and “failing miserably” has become a hot topic among various media outlets, even more serious financial media in the country have reported on this matter.
The story's protagonist, Leopold Aschenbrenner, is hailed as a “ prodigy” in the AI field.
After graduating from Columbia University at the age of 19, he briefly worked for the FTX Foundation but soon joined OpenAI in 2023 as a member of the “Superalignment Team.”
After being fired from OpenAI in 2024, he published a 165-page paper titled "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead." Based on the viewpoints in his paper, he founded the hedge fund “Situational Awareness,” raising up to $45 billion in funding.
His fund mainly employed a high-leverage strategy to operate various stocks related to AI. In the first half of 2026, it once achieved a staggering return rate of up to 439%.
However, just a few days ago, due to the plummet of AI sector stock prices, his short positions backfired, and the fund faced forced liquidation. Ultimately, about $16 billion of his public stock holdings were taken over by Citadel, leaving only about $5 billion in Anthropic equity.
The overall context of the incident is quite clear; such stories are quite clichéd—yet even so, every time such events occur, they are still worth our study, reflection, and lessons learned.
His entire operation can basically be summarized in three words: speculation, leverage, and short-selling.
What impact short-selling had on him in this incident is unclear from the current news, but the effects of speculation and leverage on him are obvious.
As for speculation, I have never opposed it but believe that for ordinary people, if there is no talent in this area, it is better to avoid taking that path.
This path is only suitable for prodigies, or as people prefer to say, “the chosen ones.”
However, through my observations over the years, whether it’s the various “big shots” appearing in the news or the different “prodigies” I encounter in everyday life, I find that the vast majority of them are later proven to be neither “prodigies” nor “the chosen ones.”
Even if they make money, it is not through speculation but through managing funds and collecting management fees or by other means—this point has been repeatedly stated by Buffett, Munger, and Duan Yongping in their books. It has been almost 100% validated through years of observation.
Moreover, even earning money through speculation is very difficult to sustain over the long term, and the ceiling is quite visible—after a certain scale is reached, it becomes hard to go further.
Leverage is also a commonly discussed topic.
Speculators often like to focus on the positive amplification effect of leverage while neglecting the enormous risks it entails.
Leopold is likely no exception.
I estimate that if Leopold had used cash instead of leverage, he would not have been forced to liquidate his positions at a low price.
As luck would have it, after he liquidated, the stocks he once held surged.
There are many comments online suggesting that this was a coordinated harvest by Wall Street giants—these comments consistently express a kind of pity and regret for him.
It sounds like he is very innocent and pitiable.
Innocent and pitiable describes a person who participates in an asymmetric game without being aware of it.
From my perspective, I don’t see him as participating in that kind of game without awareness.
He speculated and leveraged, which is engaging in speculative gambling, knowingly heading towards danger.
Although his fund incurred losses, he still possesses significant wealth.
However, judging by his fund's tearful liquidation and “failing miserably,” and frequently expressing a desire to continue financing operations externally, this is likely another case of what the old predecessors have said: making money not through speculation but primarily through earning management fees.
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