"Jiang Feng Trading Diary" Issue Nineteen
The article contains specific trading strategies, read patiently for surprises!
The market will never change its trend because of a single K-line; what truly drives price are changes in capital, liquidity, and market expectations.
Yesterday's review: BTC rebounded to a maximum of around 65391 yesterday before quickly falling back, hitting a low of around 62410, which coincidentally connected with the high short position from the 30th at 65300. Now that we have suggested reducing positions to secure profits, ensure that breakeven losses are managed to continue the game!
Today's price has rebounded to around 63000. The short position from yesterday's eighteenth issue at 64700 did not provide an entry opportunity. Currently, I hold the reduced position from the seventeenth issue at 65300, the short position from the fourteenth issue at 65700, and the short position from the tenth issue at 66900, with all positions having been reduced to lock in profits while managing breakeven losses!
Let’s discuss today's view: The bearish strategy remains unchanged, engage with light positions, risk index: 🌟🌟☆☆☆
📌 Ethereum: Enter short positions near (1900～1930), add shorts at (1958～1977)
🏁 Target 1850～1800
🏁 Target 1760～1730
🏁 Target 1690
📌 Bitcoin: Enter short positions near (64000～64500), add shorts at (65200～66200)
🏁 Target 62500～61300
🏁 Target 60500～59000
⚠️: Be careful with position control, do not heavily invest all at once, engage with light positions for a steady growth!
Now, let’s discuss recent market sentiment and operational logic!
Many friends see the price rebound and begin to believe the market is strengthening again, but based on the current market environment, upward pressure remains significant. The short-term rebound seems more like a digestion of prior downward pressure rather than a complete trend reversal.
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETF experienced net outflows, with a daily outflow amounting to 265 million USD. ETF capital has been one of the important driving forces behind Bitcoin's rise this year. When institutional capital continues to flow in, the market can easily form an upward trend; however, when ETFs see consecutive outflows, the buying power in the market will weaken in the short term.
The US Treasury market is also signaling pressure; currently, the yield on the US ten-year Treasury bond continues to rise, peaking near 4.74%. An increase in Treasury yields indicates stronger market expectations for future interest rates to remain high, which will exert some pressure on risk assets. The crypto market, being a high-volatility risk asset, is very sensitive to changes in liquidity.
Changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut outlook keep the market cautious
According to CME Federal Reserve Watch data: Probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September: 67%, Probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October: 56.5%, Probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in October: 20.8%. Although the market still has differing expectations, capital remains cautious regarding the Fed's policy path. Before there are further clarifications on rate cut expectations, risk assets will need stronger capital support to quickly break through upper pressure.
BTC Technical Analysis
The current Bitcoin price is operating around 64000 USD. From the daily structure perspective, after a slight rebound today, the price has returned to a key pressure area.
The area of 64000～64500 is the first short-term resistance level.
If the rebound strength continues to increase: the area of 65200～66200 will become the second resistance area, where there not only exists earlier trapped positions but is also a key defense area for shorts. Therefore, in the absence of an effective breakout and stabilization, my personal outlook remains that the main strategy is to seek short opportunities during a rebound and not chase the price up.
ETH Technical Analysis
The recent trend of Ethereum is relatively stronger compared to BTC, but it is still limited by resistance above.
Currently focusing on:
📌 First resistance: area of 1900～1930
📌 If it continues to rebound: the area of 1958～1977 is a key resistance area. As long as the price can’t effectively break through and stabilize, upward rebounds can still seek short opportunities.
The biggest risk in the current market is not the lack of opportunities, but rather that many friends are prone to chase prices during the upward process. Trading must always respect market structure. Seek to find opportunities for pullbacks in an upward trend and wait for rebound opportunities in a downward trend.
At this stage, I still choose to wait for the price to rebound to the key pressure area before seeking short opportunities.
However, it is important to note:
⚠️ The market experiences fluctuations; heavy positions are not advised.
⚠️ Rational position control is necessary to reduce leverage risks.
⚠️ The core of trading is not how much is made in one instance, but rather long-term stable survival.
⚠️ The market always rewards those who are patient, not the most aggressive.
"Jiang Feng Trading Diary" Issue Nineteen: K-lines and indicators are merely results of price, not reasons for price!
This is only a personal market analysis record and does not constitute investment advice.
Written by: Jiang Feng Capital
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