The probability of the bill being passed before the recess is low.

Written by: Blockchain Knight

The legislative window for a clear bill in the U.S. Senate is rapidly narrowing, and Galaxy Digital has lowered the probability of the bill passing in 2026 to 30%, with market pricing also dropping to a historical low of 32%.

According to Senate rules, once full chamber consideration begins, it must go through a complete process including a vote to terminate debate and consideration of amendments. Both parties must reach a consensus by the end of July at the latest to possibly complete voting before the recess.

However, the Senate schedule has already been crowded with priorities such as sanctions against Russia and the budget bill, making it necessary to squeeze time for advancing the clear bill at the expense of other legislation. Unless an expedited process is agreed upon by unanimous consent, it is nearly too late to follow the regular path.

Although the Republican Party holds 53 seats in the Senate, some senators have clearly opposed the bill, and reliable supportive votes number only about 50. Breaking the current situation requires 60 votes, meaning Democratic support must be secured.

However, as previously analyzed, Democratic senators involved in the negotiations have collectively stated that they believe the latest draft still has many issues and are unlikely to budge.

Given the current situation, the probability of the bill being passed before the recess is low. The Senate Majority Leader has publicly stated that he does not believe all legislative procedures can be completed before the summer recess. If it drags into September, the risk of the bill being shelved until next year will significantly increase.

Nevertheless, a low-probability scenario could arise if both parties can quickly reach a compromise on core disputes in the coming days, which would allow for expedited consideration through unanimous consent.

The industry's attitude towards the bill is also clearly divided. Wall Street factions have similarly split, with Goldman Sachs' CEO explicitly stating support for advancing the bill, believing that establishing a unified market framework should be prioritized, even if there are imperfections in the terms.

Most large banks, like JPMorgan, hold a cautious or even opposing stance, with a core demand to limit the siphoning effect of stablecoins on traditional deposits.

Of course, the mainstream crypto camp is collectively pushing for it, with a16z, Coinbase, and Galaxy Digital all believing that the bill fills the regulatory gap at the federal level in the U.S. and can reduce policy uncertainty for institutional entry, fostering industry innovation.

If the clear bill ultimately fails to pass this year, the most direct impact will be that the U.S. crypto market will continue to be in a state of regulatory ambiguity, with the timeline for unified rules being further delayed, and some resources and capital will flow to jurisdictions with clearer regulatory frameworks, such as Singapore and the European Union.

Simultaneously, the pace of institutional capital entry will slow, and the influx of new funds into spot ETFs and the product layouts of traditional financial institutions will become more cautious.

Due to the current uncertainties, some analysts have strongly correlated the passage of the bill with Bitcoin's movements, suggesting that its passage would lead to upward momentum, while failure would result in a significant pullback.

Regarding this, Charles Schwab's quantitative research shows that the fluctuations in the probability of the bill passing can only lead to about 8% of daily price fluctuations in Bitcoin, as the market has already factored in expectations of the bill being delayed and will not result in significant sell-offs due to a failure to pass.

Rather, if the bill unexpectedly passes, it would create a significant upward catalyst.

This is also a problem currently overlooked by the market. After all, negative factors may have been largely absorbed, but positive factors have yet to form a complete pricing.

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July 29, 2026 09:21