Translation: Blockchain in Plain Language

After nine months of price decline, Bitcoin's on-chain data suggests the market has entered its final chapter.

The hallmark of this story is the critical cost basis crossover, unprecedented supply squeeze, and the ongoing and painful capitulation of the speculative class.

This is a data-driven study aimed at exploring how the market transitions from “pain” to “accumulation,” rather than an emotional appeal.

Crossover Signals: The Transfer of Power

The on-chain data dashboard shows that the cost bases of long-term holders and short-term holders are converging, which is the most striking indicator.

By mid-July 2026, Bitcoin displayed classic bear market indicators: the realized price of short-term holders is declining relative to the realized price of long-term holders. This represents the complete capitulation of “tourists,” not merely a scatter point on the chart.

Since the peak, the cost basis of short-term holders has plummeted from around $112,500 to approximately $69,000.

The cost basis of long-term holders, who represent informed investors, continues to show resilience, while this significant drop indicates that recent buyers are facing tremendous selling pressure.

Traditionally, this crossover marks the onset of the final phase of a bear market, where weaker participants have been fully eliminated, allowing stronger participants to take control of the market's future direction.

The ongoing crossover indicates that the bottoming process has officially begun; a 3-day confirmation window is crucial.

Supply Squeeze: 84% High Wall

As indicated by the cost basis crossover, the potential supply dynamics confirm the transfer of dominance.

According to data compiled by Alphractal, the proportion of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has reached an all-time high of 84%. This marks the first time since 2016 that short-term traders can access only 16% of available liquidity.

This proportion is 5.2 times the short-term supply, fully reflecting the extraordinary conviction of seasoned investors to accumulate assets during market weakness.

This supply shortage creates an incredibly significant situation. With current liquidity levels at historical lows, any substantial increase in demand could lead to extreme price fluctuations.

According to CryptoQuant data, in May, the net holding change of long-term holders reached a six-year high, accumulating 1.29 million BTC, corroborating the observations above.

The study found that aside from the 6-12 month holding group rapidly transitioning into long-term holding, nearly all other supply age cohorts are declining, further highlighting the continued depletion of speculative capital.

Confirmation of Bottom Formation: The Countdown to Capitulation

Combining the supply volume in losses with the realized market value (RCV) model provides evidence for classifying the market as being in a “final phase.”

In a noteworthy development, K33 Research pointed out that on June 5, the loss-making supply volume exceeded the 50% threshold. Although this indicator has slowed to around 46%, historically, such crossover “bottom windows” typically last between 13 to 101 days, so the countdown is clearly underway.

This time span has surpassed nearly all other periods, becoming the second longest on record, indicating that the worst may be nearing its end, rather than just beginning.

The current RCV Z-score from CryptoQuant is -2.35, situated at the bottom 6% of its historical range.

Thus, investors should prepare for a significant reduction in profits, which in the past has often heralded strong returns in the future.

The market may not yet signal an ideal buying opportunity, but various indicators are beginning to converge, which may suggest that prices are reflecting difficulties in valuation and macroeconomic aspects.

Watchful Warning: Factors That Must Change

Even if structural data leans favorably, momentum indicators continue to sound alarms.

Although still exhibiting bearish tendencies, the short-term holder (STH) momentum indicators are currently showing a trend of progressively higher lows. However, the Bull Score Index is currently only at 20, well below the 60 level required to support a sustained rebound.

The current dynamic resistance levels in the market include the True Market Mean and STH Realized Price, both of which have yet to be reclaimed.

As noted by Glassnode, before a thorough trend reversal can be confirmed, the market needs “the capitulation pressure to cool further” and institutional flows to stabilize.

According to some models, if miners continue to capitulate, prices may fall to $47,000; and if short-term high cost bases cannot be breached, prices are likely to return to lower support near $58,000.

Although we have not emerged from the gloom, the lows are approaching.

Data suggests that the market is currently experiencing the last systemic phase of a gradual recovery from recent lows .

Although the framework is not yet fully established, the foundations are being laid.

Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/07/6395.html

Source: https://www.blockhead.co/2026/07/28/the-final-act-of-bitcoins-bear-market-a-data-driven-autopsy/