Crypto venture capital may be approaching a structural turning point, even if bitcoin, ethereum and stablecoins continue to expand.

Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly, said the sector could eventually reach a “last vintage” as established networks become harder for startups to challenge.

“At some point, crypto VC might just be over,” Qureshi said in a July 21 interview. “There might just be a last vintage.”

His warning is not a prediction that crypto will disappear. Instead, it reflects a market where scale, liquidity and network effects increasingly favor a small group of mature platforms.

Qureshi compared crypto with social media, which grew rapidly during the 2010s even though most of its leading platforms had been built years earlier. Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram and LinkedIn kept expanding, while Bytedance’s TikTok became the rare major challenger.

Crypto could follow a similar path.

“Maybe by the year 2030, pretty much every important company is built,” Qureshi said. Large platforms could continue growing while leaving very little room for new players to disrupt them.

He acknowledged that the timing remains uncertain. Still, he said investors may be overlooking the possibility that a growing crypto market will not always produce a steady pipeline of fundable startups.

Recent funding data points in the same direction.

Cryptorank said only 150 unique venture firms had participated in crypto funding rounds in July as of July 28. That was the lowest monthly figure since November 2020 and far below the record of 1,177 active investors in May 2022.

Source: Cryptorank

The noticeable decline suggests that capital is becoming concentrated among fewer funds. Investors are also becoming more selective when assessing new projects.

Qureshi was particularly skeptical of startups built around a single financial product on platforms such as Hyperliquid. Without control over distribution, he said, those firms risk becoming suppliers rather than durable businesses.

“If Hyperliquid owns the distribution, then you’re essentially just like a reseller,” he said. “That’s not a very compelling business model.”

Crypto VC is unlikely to vanish overnight. However, its next phase may favor fewer companies, larger platforms and founders who control their own customers, distribution and economics.

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