The market has descended as hoped, and further discussion is meaningless; today, let’s整理一下整个投资思路。 Although I have been resting for nearly two months, discussions with users have not stopped. There have also been many conversations with users from other markets who have always communicated with me. Most users feel that my investment ideas are relatively clear, so today, I will share this set of theories with everyone. With Space X as the core point, since last year, I have also followed the trend thinking this might be an opportunity for ordinary people. The pricing leaked before the IPO was still around 50U. Compared to this issuance price of 50U, I indeed feel this is an opportunity. With various operations by Musk later on, a clear characteristic of stock accumulation emerged, which is to merge X AI into the airline company. To invest, one must understand the entire company’s profit model. It can be said that airlines do not have a fixed income; previously, X AI's main income came from Starlink subscriptions.

At this point, what I am thinking is, why merge X AI? The conclusion is certainly to enhance the stock price, but why do this? Is the airline really worth this price? The result is as we have all seen, nearly 75 billion raised breaks the record for the largest global IPO. From the current stock performance, it is definitely not worth it. This has also been my reminder this year, advising everyone not to buy in. The main considerations for investing in a company are whether it is worth it or not; frankly, anything above 100U still has bubbles. Observing X AI, it is a failed product that currently can only profit by renting out computing power, and the entire startup team has been dismissed; subsequent development has been declared a failure. This means that Musk will not invest too much in the AI field in the future. A failed product integrated into a product that is about to develop could triple the stock price; this is a typical example.

I merely mentioned that everyone should not invest; of course, I cannot persuade investors who have personal beliefs. If everyone holds onto investment beliefs, then they are definitely not qualified investors. I can conclude about Space X at this point; the theory is lofty but not suitable for current investment. Everyone should try to discard unrealistic fantasies. The tech sector often has many bubbles and grand visions, but if you calm down and think, how far are we from achieving Musk's vision? Without discussing the fantasy of colonizing Mars, even bringing resources from other planets back to Earth might not be achievable by our generation. Looking at the revenue data for 2025, total revenue for the year 2025 is projected to be 18.7 billion dollars (a year-on-year increase of 30%), with a net loss of 4.9 billion dollars; while in 2024, there was a profit of 791 million dollars, with capital expenditures of 20.7 billion dollars. The revenue reported is still negative; why still invest? Based on this data reference, there is still downward space.

Everyone should not consider applications from a certain platform within the investment field; remember that a certain social platform is currently on a downhill slope. This is also why Musk is vigorously promoting the entry of the cryptocurrency sector into the platform's trading, aiming to transform the social platform into a BN platform. I can only say that it is very difficult; my psychological price should be around 80. Having discussed this investment idea, let's return to the cryptocurrency sphere, where the two are completely opposite. The recent performance of the cryptocurrency sphere has not decreased but instead increased, which itself indicates some issues. Supporters of the tech sector have thoughts about transferring to the cryptocurrency sphere, but to see specific market performance, a significant favorable news is needed to promote it. For example, a country like Russia that can conduct foreign trade settlements in digital currency, although domestic regulations have become stricter, its foreign trade could support the coin's value was already sufficient. For example, the latest news indicates that Samsung Wallet also supports stablecoin trading; we can visibly see the expansion of the cryptocurrency market.

Perhaps everyone is tired of hearing my theory; in my eyes, the future of cryptocurrency is an extremely transparent existence, and its future will integrate into our lives. This cross-border aspect is very important; once realized, it can at least double foreign trade. This road is arduous, but some will persist in walking it. You might think my words sound very cryptic; who can see the future of the cryptocurrency sphere? My core theory only has one point: trade issues will persist and will not end in our generation. If you believe that the trade war will conclude in the short term and that American tariffs will reduce, reverting to a WTO system similar to around 2004 in the next ten years, then cryptocurrency will be worthless. However, if you share my theory, believing it cannot end in the short term, then the future of cryptocurrency will continue to rise. Many friends only see what they see, and I see things quite differently.

I see trade being continually blocked while domestic large-model training capabilities are continuously increasing. The blockage of computing power has surprisingly allowed domestic computing power to rise again. Where do the core graphics cards come from? What are the methods of settlement? If you still think this effect is brought about by technological breakthroughs, I can only say you may not be suitable for the investment industry. Remember that confrontation will increase the value of the cryptocurrency sphere; a good product with reasonable valuation can build a position, and with reasonable valuation, it can surge at any time. For example, Space X, near 80 dollars, might just need to bring back a handful of dirt from the Moon to double its market value. For example, Bitcoin, around 60,000 dollars, might just need around 27 years of legislation to double; this is merely a matter of time, not uncontrollable! Returning to the short term, anyone looking to do contracts must also have long-term goals. In the current downward phase, the ultimate aim of contracts is to bear the trial and error costs of the spot. Short selling contracts and going long on spot is my core theory.

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