Yesterday someone was asking: As the expectation for the CLARITY Act continues to rise, BTC has difficulty making a deep downward adjustment. How should we view the current market situation?

In fact, analyzing the on-chain capital signals can make it clear that the 65500 level is hard to drop due to two core capital forces continuously supporting from below.

The first layer of support comes from the key window period for the CLARITY Act. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has released signals that the bill is at the doorstep stage. Key provisions have reached consensus, and the Senate plans to vote before the August recess. Once it is successfully implemented, the regulatory environment that has relied on enforcement measures for many years will be rewritten, providing a foundation for massive institutional capital to enter. This is not short-term emotional speculation, but a structural positive that changes the market landscape, firmly supporting the bottom around 65500.

The second layer of support is the clear trend of ETF capital inflow. Spot BTC ETF has seen a net inflow for five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative scale breaking 700 million dollars, marking the longest consecutive inflow period since May. BlackRock’s IBIT saw a single-day inflow of 116 million dollars. The pressure period of 8.2 billion dollars in capital fleeing in May and June has passed, and institutional confidence is gradually recovering.

The third layer of support is that whales are choosing to continue accumulating in this range. Addresses holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have increased their holdings by about 11,000 coins within a week, with large funds actively positioning in the range, combined with passive buying brought on by short covering, further strengthening the support below.

The fourth layer of support is that the short selling offensive momentum continues to weaken. Since the rebound started at 57800, the short selling force has been gradually diminishing, and has not been able to form a concentrated selling pressure, lacking the power to push the market into a deep decline.

The advancement of the CLARITY Act greatly reduces uncertainty in regulation and resolves the concerns that institutions have about long-term positioning. The continuous net inflow of ETFs is proof that this logic is gradually being fulfilled. The fact that capital dares to take positions around 65500 essentially represents a long-term strategy: if the bill is successfully implemented, the current price level is very likely to become a low point for a long period in the future.

However, while being optimistic, we must not overlook the hidden dangers. Currently, the spot trading volume is only 62% of the annual average, and retail investors are still holding a wait-and-see attitude. Once the ETF inflow momentum comes to a halt, the 65500 support will once again be tested.

In terms of operation strategy, wait for a pullback to set up long positions, with the first target at 67500 and the second target at 70800. Based on the current volume, capital, and various market data, it is temporarily unwise to expect higher space.

Public account: Big Bull Says Market

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