Podcast Source: Crypto Banter
整理 & Compile: Deep Tide TechFlow
Guest: Eric Krown, former NYSE ARCA options market maker, currently a full-time crypto trader, founder of the YouTube channel Krown's Crypto Cave
Host: Alessandro, Crypto Banter "Risk Takers" program
Original Title: The Exact Bitcoin Levels That Decide the Next Move | Krown
Broadcast Date: July 19, 2026
Disclosure: Krown publicly stated that he bought spot BTC just above $60,000 and is also running a paid trading course and exchange affiliate links (ByBit, BloFin, etc.). The content of this episode is purely technical analysis and does not involve the promotion of specific project tokens.
Key Points Summary
Eric Krown is a former options market maker for the NYSE ARCA with over 15 years of trading experience, having started learning equity options at the Pacific Stock Exchange during his teenage years. He later worked as an authorized market maker (MMAT) at the NYSE ARCA and transitioned to full-time trading in the crypto market several years ago. This is his fourth appearance on Alessandro's "Risk Takers" program, a monthly series that consistently tracks the core question: Where exactly is the macro bottom for Bitcoin?
The major information increment this episode offers is Krown compiling all the synchronously converging monthly signals into a complete checklist. The 55 EMA recovery point at $63,735, the stochastic indicator cross trigger at $64,371, the biweekly MACD histogram indicating a 168-day cycle pointing to early August, and the LTI tool signaling a strong buy in January when the price had retraced 22.64% (consistent with previous cycles' retracement of 20-22%). He explicitly states that if BTC closes the monthly above $63,735, he has 85% confidence that the macro bottom is being formed. On the other hand, the Fear and Greed Index has remained below 20 for two or three months, with extremely pessimistic market sentiment, yet the price has already made a major reversal—a divergence that has appeared at every macro low historically.
Highlighted Views Summary
On the "waiting for 50,000" psychological trap
"Everyone is shouting for 40,000 to 50,000, but if you divide BTC by the M2 money supply, it has actually backtested the flash crash low point of August 2024, at $49,270. The number you want has been adjusted for inflation and is already given to you."
On the monthly 55 EMA
"BTC spent about half a year recovering after dropping below the 55 EMA in 2022; once it recovers, the bull market officially begins. In 2018, it only lost two monthly closes before recovering. Now we just need to close above $63,735 in July to reclaim it."
On the 168-day cycle
"From the MACD histogram low point in 2018 to the actual price low point, 168 days. In 2022, also 168 days. This round's trend line has been triggered; projecting forward by 168 days lands exactly in early August, coinciding perfectly with the monthly close and stochastic indicator cross time windows."
On market sentiment
"Fear and Greed Index at 28, remaining below 20 for two or three months. The price has reversed from the low, but sentiment is still in the basement. Looking back at 2015, 2019, and 2022, this formula has appeared at every macro low."
On traditional market rotation
"The semiconductor index has risen over 300% from April 2025 to now; I called a top in early July. Profits are flowing into medical biotechnology (IBB) and industrials. But the SPY chart is not bearish; I don't see any macro top signals at least until Q4."
On gold and copper
"Gold just touched the 10-year cycle peak in January and is likely to stagnate or decline in the coming years. Copper, on the other hand, just broke out of a 20-year consolidation range, targeting about $8. Copper is a direct proxy for AI data center construction."
The main text is as follows:
Chapter One: Adjusting BTC for Inflation with M2 Money Supply
Alessandro: Last month you said BTC would look pretty good if it oscillated near 60,000 until summer. Do you still think that way?
Krown: Yes, and I currently have about 85% confidence that the macro low is confirming at the monthly close this month. First, let me mention a perspective that I think is severely overlooked. A lot of people are waiting for BTC in the 40,000 to 50,000 range, with various influencers and retail traders calling for that zone. But if you analyze BTC divided by the M2 money supply, the situation is entirely different. This chart uses the money supply as the denominator, effectively standardizing for inflation factors.
2022 saw the same situation. Everyone was calling for 10,000 or 8,000, but if you normalize by M2, BTC had already dropped to the equivalent of 10,000 in November that year. I was saying on my channel that if you were waiting for 10,000 to 11,000, you had already hit it adjusting for money supply.
The current situation is no different. The 50,000 you want, adjusted by M2, has already backtested the flash crash low of August 2024 at $49,270. The number you want has been given to you; you just haven't been using the correct ruler to measure. Since 2020, the money supply has increased by 40% to 50%, yet we measure asset prices using the dollar as a constant; that's a cognitive bias.
Alessandro: I've also used the BTC/M2 chart to show that BTC is the only asset consistently making higher highs and higher lows against the money supply. The S&P and gold are actually trending down against M2.
Krown: Exactly, the S&P just recently broke above its 1999 high, which also corresponds to a break against M2. Everything is related to the money supply; nothing operates in a vacuum.
Chapter Two: Monthly 55 EMA, $63,735 is the First Confirmation Signal
Alessandro: Let's get into specific price levels. What is the situation with the monthly 55 EMA you mentioned before?
Krown: Let's start with the simplest point. The 55 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is historically a key average for BTC confirming macro lows on a monthly basis. In 2022, BTC spent about half a year below it; once it recovered, it was a major signal, and the bull market started from there. In 2018, it lost only two monthly closes before recovering and surged. Looking back to 2015 and 2014, although historical data is limited, the 55 EMA also served as a grounding point.
The current situation: if BTC closes this month above $63,735, it will complete the 55 EMA recovery. Currently, we are near this price level. There are still 11 to 12 trading days left, and so far, everything is normal. This signal is very specific and easy to track. Even the most staunch bears must admit this is at least a major low, and BTC is likely to bounce back to above 70,000.
For a short-term confirmation, I still need to see BTC close above 65,500. But on the monthly level, 63,735 is the first hard indicator.
Chapter Three: Triple Convergence of Monthly MACD, RSI, and Stochastic Indicator
Alessandro: What about the monthly MACD?
Krown: The monthly MACD is showing signs of weakening momentum, and July is the first awesome momentum signal; the last instance occurred in April. Historically, every time the monthly MACD momentum starts to weaken, either the low has already appeared or is close enough that you might as well enter. This was the case in 2015, where the low already existed. In 2019, the reversal was almost at that bar. In 2022, although there were extreme events later with the FTX crash, if you bought during the MACD signal, you would only be a month ahead of the final low and would be very satisfied in the long run.
As for RSI, the monthly RSI is currently at basically the same level as the low of 2022, possibly even slightly lower, and below all previous macro lows in BTC history. Multiple momentum oscillators are corroborating the same story at the same position.
Looking at the monthly stochastic oscillator. It has reached the oversold zone below 20, which is a low signal. The next confirmation is to wait for it to cross upwards. Every time this cross occurs, the low has already been in. I have been tracking this since 2012, and there has not been a single exception.
Here is a key number: I backtracked, and if BTC closes on the monthly at 64,371 or above, it will force the stochastic indicator to cross upwards. So you see the two trigger points are within a very narrow range: 63,735 recovers 55 EMA, and $64,371 triggers the stochastic indicator cross. If both hit simultaneously, along with the MACD momentum signal and low RSI, even the biggest bears will have to start considering this as a macro bottom.
Chapter Four: 168-Day Cycle Pointing to Early August
Alessandro: What about the biweekly MACD histogram trend line you mentioned before?
Krown: This is one of the tools I used to publicly call the macro low in advance in 2022. Looking at the MACD histogram in the biweekly timeframe, you can draw a downward trend line starting from 2018; every time the histogram touches this line, a low forms. Note that the low of the MACD histogram does not equal the price low; there is a time lag between them.
But this time lag is very regular. In 2018: from the MACD histogram low to the actual price macro low, 168 days. In 2022: also 168 days. Precise to the day.
This round, the trend line has been triggered. Projecting 168 days forward, it lands in early August. This coincides perfectly with the monthly 55 EMA recovery and stochastic indicator cross time window. Everything is converging at the same time point.
Alessandro: So these signals you're seeing aren't isolated; they're synchronously pointing to the same conclusion?
Krown: Right, that's why I say 85% confidence. Any single indicator could be wrong, but when five or six independent signals trigger simultaneously within the same week, the odds are entirely in your favor. It's like betting odds in the World Cup. The French team is the biggest favorite, going from 15% probability to 40%, but the combined probability of all the other teams is still higher than that of France. You bet on France winning, and you might have solid reasoning, but statistically, you are likely to be wrong.
Alessandro: Trading is the same; you never have 100% certainty.
Krown: Never. But when you have probabilistic advantage, you simply stand with the high probability side. You don't need to be right every time; in a market like BTC, you just need to be right once big.
Chapter Five: LTI Tool and 22% Rule
Alessandro: What about your LTI (Long-term Investor) tool? Last time you mentioned it gave a buy signal.
Krown: LTI is a long-term tool that integrates volatility, momentum, dates, and other fundamental factors. Every time it issues a strong buy signal, the price typically has about a 20% decline space until the final low point. Let me quickly recap the history.
In December 2014, the first strong buy signal appeared, and from that signal to the next closing low, it dropped by 22.90%. In 2018, from the signal to the low, it was 20.61%. The June 2022 signal appeared, and the macro closing low was 20.65%. This round, the strong buy signal appeared in January 2026; from that signal to the current closing low, it has dropped 22.64%. Four signals have all seen declines between 20-23%, remarkably consistent.
I have one premise for assessing the macro low: the weekly trend must officially reverse. Right now, all higher time frames are still in a downtrend, that's a fact. But if the monthly closes above those numbers mentioned earlier, I would move my confidence from 80% to 85%. That doesn't mean BTC won't go up to 75,000 and then down to 65,000 first, but the bottom structure is forming.
Chapter Six: Fear and Greed Index 28, Classic Divergence Between Sentiment and Price
Alessandro: What do you think about market sentiment?
Krown: The Fear and Greed Index is now at 28, having been below 20 for the previous two or three months. According to my YouTube analysis data, the number of people watching has also decreased significantly. But those who remain are extremely pessimistic.
Here lies a classic divergence: market sentiment is in the basement while the price has already made a major reversal from the low. This configuration has appeared at each macro low in 2015, 2019, and 2022. People think they are going against the crowd; in reality, they are the crowd. The crowd is bearish and very confident.
Even if the macro low has not yet arrived, I don't think there is much downside left. At worst, it will be a rebound that lasts several months. $60,000 is my key level, coinciding with psychological and technical levels. As long as BTC is above this, I will treat it as a major low or even a macro low. A weekly or biweekly close below $60,000 would disrupt a lot of structures.
Alessandro: So your invalidation is a biweekly or 10-day close below $60,000?
Krown: Yes, technically, you need to see a biweekly or at least 10-day close below $60,000 to start disrupting these signals. Below that, a lot of things would fall apart. But I haven't seen such signs yet.
Chapter Seven: Four-Year Cycle? I Don’t Care, August is Close to October
Alessandro: What about the four-year cycle? Do you think this low will arrive before October?
Krown: To be honest, I no longer care about the narrative of the four-year cycle. Everyone on YouTube is reading that "BTC bottoms a year after the peak, so the low must be in October." But how do you define the peak? If you use the BTC to M2 chart, the timing of peaks will differ. I see low signals appearing, and I don't care what day the history textbooks say.
Alessandro: But it's still only July, and if the bottom is right now or within a month or two, you have to admit the four-year cycle was right again.
Krown: Yes, July is only three months away from October. It's close enough that you can tip your hat and say "well, it was right again." I don't need to be precise to October 16. In this market, you don't need to be perfect to make a lot of money. But if BTC makes a new low in October, I will be very suspicious that it is truly the bottom, as that would mean the technical side has suffered deeper damage.
Chapter Eight: Semiconductor Top, Funds Rotating to Medical and Copper
Alessandro: You mentioned traditional markets are rotating; can you elaborate?
Krown: Semiconductors are the biggest topic. NVIDIA, Intel, Micron, etc., I called a top in early July. The semiconductor index has risen more than 300% since April 2025; holding the index has tripled. Taking profits is completely understandable.
But I am not bearish on the traditional market. Rotation does not equal a bear market. Funds moving out of semiconductors are entering medical biotechnology. IBB (iShares Biotechnology ETF) just completed a daily breakout, and I think it will continue to rise until the end of the year. There may be short-term buying opportunities as it pulls back to around 180. The industrial sector is also strengthening.
The SPY's chart is not bearish. It may pull back to around 7200 short-term but remains bullish through Q4. I do not see any macro top signals now, at least not until October or November. QQQ is weak short-term; there may be another flash crash in early August (this has happened in the past few years), but then it will continue to rise.
Alessandro: Memory ETFs have also given back half their gains, but the index hasn't been much affected. Apple is now the largest company again, which is crazy.
Krown: Apple's chart looks very good, with at least 3 to 6 more months of upside potential. This is how the market operates: one sector peaks, and money flows into the next sector, allowing the index to keep rising. This pattern has been in effect since 2008. People love to shout about macro tops, probably because they idolize those in "The Big Short." But to be honest, going long in these markets is much easier than going short.
Alessandro: Finally, what about gold and copper?
Krown: I remain extremely bearish on gold and silver. Gold peaked in January on the 10-year cycle and is likely to consolidate or decline in the coming years, with rebounds to short. If you're holding longs in this rebound, that's a sell gift from God.
Copper is a completely different chart. It has just broken out of a 20-year consolidation range starting in 2006, targeting about $8. Copper is a direct proxy for the construction of AI data centers, which require a significant amount of copper. As long as copper prices are above $560, the outlook is objectively bullish. I don’t trade copper often, but from a pure technical standpoint, the breakout is real and has upside potential.
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