1 - Can the bubble last for ten years?

This is a comment in the message area of the article "The Logic of A-shares Revealed" from July 2nd.

What I wanted to convey in the article is not that this round of market can keep bullish for ten years (I do not believe that this market can remain bullish for ten years), but rather that the logic of A-shares being driven by technology narratives is likely to last for ten years.

This logic is quite different from the past A-share logic.

Between 1999 and 2001, the “5·19” market surge was triggered by strong policy stimulus + the reflection of the overseas tech bubble.

Between 2005 and 2007, the big bull market was ignited by the equity division reform.

Between 2008 and 2009, the bull market was initiated by the “Four Trillion” economic stimulus plan.

Between 2014 and 2015, the bull market was driven by reform expectations + monetary policy easing + large-scale inflow of leveraged funds into the market.

From the patterns of these past bull market triggers, each factor and narrative that ignited the bull market were different, some were policy reforms, some were fiscal stimuli, some were financial stimuli...

But the next trigger for the A-share market will turn into the explosion of various technology sectors included under the overarching theme of U.S.-China tech competition.

To support the development of this overarching direction, relying solely on national investment is certainly not enough, but the state's investment will definitely be deeply involved.

Currently, a large amount of state-owned capital (whether at the national level or from various provincial and municipal state-owned enterprises) has started to participate in high-risk tech venture capital. This type of capital cannot afford losses. Since losses cannot be sustained, how do the invested funds exit? How to control risks? How to develop and grow?

This can only rely on the stock market.

Thus, it is imperative to strongly guide private funds into the stock market, on one hand to support the development of various tech sectors, and on the other hand to somewhat protect the profitable exit of state-owned capital.

Therefore, in the next decade, there will still be a succession of bull and bear markets.

At the beginning of each bull market, a new cutting-edge technology field is likely to emerge, and that field's narrative or "story" will lead the subsequent market trends of that bull market.

When that market attracts a large influx of private capital rushing into the stock market to support those tech sector listed companies, the "mission" of that bull market will be almost complete. Whether the market remains "bullish" thereafter will be something the shareholders themselves need to consider.

Once the bull market ends and the bear market begins, after a period of adjustment, private capital will slowly recover. Once ordinary retail investors' wallets are filled again, a new round of bull market will once again be initiated under the impetus of new technology narratives.

The previous story will once again be played out in the same manner...

2 - Not participating in A-shares, but can participate in U.S. stocks?

I have written about my operations in previous articles: I sold all indices in U.S. stocks long ago, only retaining a few of my favorite stocks.

In recent years, I really dare not participate in the U.S. stock market; aside from a very few companies, I cannot understand the developmental momentum of many companies, so I’ll just observe.

3 - Can’t we buy U.S. stocks on chains like BNB or SOL? Robinhood isn’t the first to try this, right? It seems that compared to other stock tokens, there’s not much innovation aside from dividends.

Indeed, there are already stock tokens on other layer blockchains (like BNB and SOL), but I’m more concerned about whether there are these things in the Ethereum (including its Layer 2 expansions) ecosystem. Because Ethereum itself has strong ecological advantages. If an application can be made within such an ecosystem, it will generate powerful siphoning effects and scale effects.

This is similar to real life, where many inventions and creations are not originally from our country, but once these technologies are deployed and applied in our country, the scale effect and economic effect they generate are incomparable to other markets. Moreover, this effect may even surpass the original country of the invention.

"It seems that compared to other stock tokens, there's not much innovation aside from dividends"—from the surface, this dividend does indeed seem unremarkable, let alone it being called a significant innovation.

However, in reality, this involves many regulatory factors and compliance management, which is not easy in actual operations. This is where the troubles with RWA lie; because it involves regulation, often “pulling one string can move the whole body,” leading to needing a great deal of effort just to promote a small progress. Thus, there are many obstacles and difficulties in the progress of the RWA field.

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