Gold ETF 22-Year Legend Inspires Bitcoin: After Astonishing Gains, It May Face Severe Volatility and New Highs.

Written by: Forbes

Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

In 2026, Bitcoin has had a rather difficult journey, failing to maintain the historical high of over $126,000 it briefly surpassed last year. Despite U.S. President Trump's repeated positive signals, the price of Bitcoin has still fallen by more than 50% since last October. However, many analysts point out that the potential policy shift by the Federal Reserve may be brewing a turnaround.

As BlackRock's CEO recently published a 12-month Bitcoin price forecast, Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas provided a highly relevant comparison: the Bitcoin ETF army is likely to cause Bitcoin prices to "mirror" the "victories and pains" that gold has experienced over the past 20 years.

Balchunas posted on the X platform: "The 22-year history of the gold ETF may serve as the closest roadmap for Bitcoin ETF investors." Since the launch of gold ETFs in 2004, gold prices have soared, and the total market value is now approaching $28 trillion. This figure alone is enough to spark market imagination—if Bitcoin can replicate part of gold's successful path, its potential for price increase will be extremely significant.

He further analyzed: "Gold and Bitcoin are both packaged products of non-yielding value storage tools; they do not generate cash flow, and the core driving force of their prices completely relies on investor sentiment, rather than the profitability of traditional stocks, the coupon of bonds, or the credit endorsement of governments."

Over the past 20 years, gold ETFs have undergone dramatic fluctuations: they briefly became the world's largest ETFs in 2011, followed by an eight-year period of sluggishness, struggling to recover. Balchunas believes that Bitcoin ETFs are playing out a similar script—"astonishing gains, painful pullbacks, and a recovery phase that requires extreme patience to endure." Notably, each cycle of gold ETFs has raised historical peaks, which is particularly encouraging for long-term Bitcoin holders.

Looking back at the development of Bitcoin ETFs: In early 2024, after more than a decade of continuous pushing by the crypto community, the spot Bitcoin ETF was finally approved for market launch. Wall Street institutions flocked in, and several leading funds quickly became some of the fastest-growing ETF products in history. This not only marks Bitcoin's transition from a fringe asset to the mainstream financial system but also lays the groundwork for subsequent price fluctuations.

However, volatility has always been ever-present. At the beginning of this month, an analyst from the Bitfinex exchange issued a warning: if there were a "shock" large-scale outflow of ETF funds, it could directly interrupt the current rally momentum. Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded nearly 10% from the low point of below $57,000 in early July, but the market remains highly vigilant.

As the absolute leader in the Bitcoin ETF space, BlackRock's IBIT fund has recently sold nearly 100,000 Bitcoins to cope with redemption pressure and currently holds over 733,000 Bitcoins, with assets nearing $50 billion. This also reflects the liquidity characteristics of institutional funds—both inflows and outflows can trigger significant market reactions.

Despite the substantial correction in Bitcoin prices this year, many long-term optimists remain confident. They generally believe that Bitcoin is poised for long-term prosperity comparable to gold. Balchunas himself also emphasized the "spiritual parallel" between the two: "Gold quickly became popular, surpassing the world's largest ETF SPY on a certain day in 2011, only to fall out of favor for years. IBIT also surged to a peak of $100 billion in assets in a single day—that just happened to be the top in October 2025. The supply of both is nearly fixed, and when demand surges, prices can explode. But the issue is that demand often fluctuates unpredictably, coming in waves rather than being steady and continuous."

From the perspective of seasoned observers in the crypto industry, this comparison holds significant practical relevance. Gold has achieved long-term value anchoring due to its scarcity, safe-haven attributes, and global recognition; Bitcoin, under its halving mechanism, decentralized network, and increasing institutional adoption, displays characteristics akin to "digital gold." The emergence of ETFs further lowers the barriers to holding positions, allowing traditional investors to gain exposure without the need to hold Bitcoin directly, which undoubtedly amplifies demand elasticity.

Currently, the market remains optimistic about the resilience of ETF demand. Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, pointed out: "Institutional demand remains one of the strongest pillars for Bitcoin. The spot Bitcoin ETF continues to record steady inflows, while more companies are starting to include digital assets in their diversification strategies. This institutional interest effectively alleviated selling pressure during the recent market correction."

Looking ahead, Bitcoin's trajectory will be deeply influenced by the macro environment, regulatory dynamics, and institutional behavior. The market value of gold has reached nearly $28 trillion; if Bitcoin can gradually occupy a similar "value storage" position, even achieving just a fraction of gold's market value will bring significant appreciation potential. Of course, the process will inevitably be accompanied by severe volatility—this is precisely the essence of the "high risk, high reward" nature of the crypto market.

For ordinary investors, the key is to maintain rationality, diversify risks, and focus on long-term trends rather than short-term noise. The story of Bitcoin is far from over, and with more traditional funds entering the market and infrastructure improving, the prologue to this "price explosion" may just be beginning. From gold to Bitcoin: Fixed supply + Institutional Frenzy may reenact "explosive" price movements?