Good afternoon, friends, the new week's market officially begins!
Looking back at last week's market, our logical analysis of the market movements and key support and resistance points were completely aligned with the market trend, and partners in the group followed this thought process to track the market comprehensively.
As we enter a brand new week, I will continue the stable sharing rhythm: first, I will outline the overall trading logic for the entire week, break down the practical technical details, and then combine the changes in the market to identify the core key price levels, synchronously proposing practical reference ideas, and do my best to help everyone clarify the operational direction for this week.
The overarching thought process on Monday is the core foundation for the operations of the entire week, the importance of which cannot be overstated. Everyone should pay close attention to this sharing content.
After the previous round of CPI data was released, BTC surged from 62000 directly to 65500, but it quickly faced selling pressure and fell back, now stuck in the range of 64400 being tugged back and forth. The current market is in a dilemma, stemming from the continuous hedging of two macro forces: the cooling inflation data gives the market a bullish expectation, but Federal Reserve officials collectively maintain a hawkish stance suppressing the expectation of easing; furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding the Washington CLARITY crypto proposal hangs in the balance, keeping regulatory uncertainty over the market.
1. Macro Bull-Bear Tug of War: Cooling Inflation, Federal Reserve Remains Tight
June's CPI data was better than expected across the board, year-on-year 3.5%, core CPI 2.6%, with significant declines in energy and gasoline prices, leading the market to once bet on subsequent interest rate cuts. However, the Federal Reserve's stance is completely opposite; Chair Powell stated directly at the hearing that we cannot conclude that the battle against inflation is over just based on a single month's decrease in inflation, and several Fed officials have called for retaining room for interest rate hikes. Interest rate tools show a rising probability of a rate hike in September to 46.2%, with a 55%-60% chance of another hike within the year. Additionally, ongoing U.S.-Iran conflicts have kept oil prices above 80 dollars, suppressing risk appetite. In summary: the CPI is a past bullish factor, while the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations are the current mainline, and the macro environment has transitioned from a unilateral bullish to a bull-bear tug of war.
2. Price and Volume: Bull-Bear Stalemate, No Active Capital Attack
Prices rebounding to 64800-65000 encounter significant selling pressure, while at lower levels around 64000 there are buy orders supporting, completely locking the range. 4-hour period: The bullish momentum during the CPI rally has significantly diminished, the MACD red bars are narrowing but have not turned green; this round of pullback has seen continuously shrinking trading volume, indicating that it is merely profit-taking from the bulls, not active selling by the bears. Daily level: In the past two days, the price rose but the volume shrank, lacking substantial volume support for the bulls in taking positions; the rebound volume from 57800 has been decreasing, with upward momentum clearly weakening. Currently, it is a typical “Price Stabilizing with Shrinking Volume” oscillation pattern, where only two scenarios can break the balance: a breakout with increased volume above 64800 to continue the rebound or a breakdown with increased volume below 63500 to initiate a deeper pullback.
3. On-Chain Chip Rotation: Smart Money Accumulating, Short-Term Funds Departing
In the past week, the market has been undergoing a significant chip rotation:
ETF has ended eight consecutive weeks of large outflows, with slight inflows in the past two weeks, although there was a single day withdrawal of 424 million; short-term replenishment does not imply a reversal;
Whales holding over a thousand coins have continued to accumulate over the last 60 days, while medium holders of 100-1000 coins have been continuously reducing their holdings, forming a “large holders buy, medium holders sell” pattern;
Long-term holders are maintaining record-high positions, even when prices fall, they do not sell; miners' daily outflow of BTC has decreased by 36%, even under profit pressure they choose to hoard coins. Overall conclusion: short-term retail and medium holders are fleeing, while whales and long-term funds are continuously absorbing, mid-term bottom chips are being solidified, and short-term selling pressure is limited.
4. CLARITY Proposal: The Biggest Variable This Week, August Window Closing Soon
The probability of the proposal passing has significantly decreased, the core conflict lies in the Democratic Party's demand to retain the officials' crypto asset ban, while the Republican Party and the White House refuse to delete it; the two parties' divisions are now difficult to reconcile. The proposal needs 60 votes to pass in the Senate, and currently, only 2-3 Democratic senators are inclined to support it, making the threshold gap very large. The Congressional recess on August 7 is the last voting juncture, and this week on the 20th and 27th is the only remaining window; if postponed, the next opportunity for advancement might be delayed by several years. The rebound from 62800 to 64800 has already priced in the expectation of the proposal being implemented, and should it clearly fail to advance this week, this portion of the price increase may quickly unwind.
5. Weekly Structure: Fifth Wave Downtrend's Later Stage, Wide Fluctuation Between 58000-68000
In this bear market, we have seen a complete five-wave downtrend on the weekly chart: the high point of 126000 started a wave down, with an intermediate wave for correction, the third wave as the main decline, in May we saw a fourth wave rebound, and since June, we have been in the fifth wave bottoming cycle. Currently, the price is trapped in a wide fluctuation range of 58000-68000 for over 44 days, with two rebound peaks progressively lowering (67500→65600), and the height of the third rebound will likely be limited to 64500-66000, only in extreme scenarios might we test 70800. Mid-term judgment: the fifth wave downward is not complete; if the upper boundary at 68000 fails to break through three times, the market will likely pull back to 55000-56000 for the final decline, only then will a new upward cycle begin.
6. Three Possible Future Paths
Bullish (25% probability): The proposal passes smoothly before July 27, volume stabilizes above 65600, pushing towards 67000-70000, and the fifth wave downward bottoms out early;
Neutral (50% probability): The proposal is postponed, and the market continues to oscillate in the 63000-65000 range, waiting for new catalysts;
Bearish (25% probability): The proposal votes fail, volume breaks below 63000, initially pulling back to support at 62000-61000, and if lost, targets the bottom range of 55000-56000.
Core Idea: The current price of 64400 is at the midpoint of the range, where both bull and bear profit-loss ratios are poor; do not preemptively predict the direction, but wait for a breakout below 63000 support or above 65000 resistance with increased volume to follow through.
7. Practical Strategies for This Week
No early guessing of rise or fall, wait for the proposal + dual signals of volume and price before taking action:
Long: Upon pullback to 63500-64000, form a long lower shadow and stabilize with reduced volume, lightly enter long with a target of 64800-65600 and a stop loss at 62800;
Short: Upon rebound to 64800-65600, meet with pressure forminga solid long upper shadow bearish line, lightly enter short with a target of 63000-63500 and a stop loss at 66000; position control: total position not exceeding 20%, low leverage operation.
Lastly: 64400 is neither up nor down; entering the market purely relies on speculation. Direction should be based on logical deduction, but entry must wait for a K-line volume confirmation. Defend the bottom line of 63000, closely monitor the pressure at 65000, and whichever side breaks out first with volume, then follow the trend for trades.
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Official Account: Big Bull Says Market
Market review does not constitute investment advice; cryptocurrency volatility is severe, and contract trading carries very high risks; please manage positions reasonably.
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