A brief overview of how institutions and analysts view the post-crypto market.

Written by: Ma He, Foresight News

On July 20, BTC is still fluctuating around $75,000, ETH once approached $2,000, and has currently retreated to around $1,900, with most altcoins performing weakly. According to coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total network's open contracts liquidated $116 million, including $62.7 million in short positions.

Currently, its market fear index is at 35, still in a state of panic.

So what are the current market views from institutions, analysts, and traders?

Polymarket Data: 33% probability that BTC will fall below $50,000 this year

The latest data from Polymarket shows that the market bets on a 23% probability that BTC will fall below $45,000 this year, a 33% probability of falling below $50,000, a 50% probability of falling below $55,000, and a 75% probability of rising to $70,000.

ARK Invest: Bitcoin's decline is diverging from large whale accumulation, indicating a cyclical bottom signal in the market

ARK Invest's Q2 2026 Bitcoin report states that Bitcoin fell about 14% in the second quarter, dropping below the short-term holder realization price, the 200-day moving average, and on-chain average, with the technical outlook still bearish. However, the percentage of losses in supply has risen to about 54%, and the supply of long-term holders has reached a historical high of about 14.85 million BTC, which ARK sees as a potential signal of seller exhaustion.

The report also pointed out that Bitcoin has not yet fallen back to the on-chain cost range of about $49,000 to $53,000, and the downside risk has not been fully released; approximately 71,000 BTC net outflow occurred in the Q2 of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, and the STRC preferred stock of Strategy fell to a minimum of $74.57.

Bitwise: Each cycle's bottom for Bitcoin is rising, and institutional investors are buying at lows

Juan Leon, senior investment strategist at Bitwise, stated that the current Bitcoin bear market is fundamentally different from previous cycles, with institutional adoption rising, while the market is simultaneously affected by the AI boom, macro uncertainty, and delays in US cryptocurrency legislation. Bitwise's institutional clients can be roughly divided into two categories: investors who have allocated Bitcoin over the past two years view this round of declines as a rebalancing and dollar-cost averaging opportunity; while another group of large funds is still waiting for a clearer regulatory framework. He said, "In 2022, clients asked whether cryptocurrencies could survive; in 2026, they ask about entry points and position sizes. This is an entirely different conversation."

Leon believes the current decline represents "the most gently structural bear market" recorded for Bitcoin, currently down about 50% from its recent high, less than the 78% decline in the 2022 bear market and 84% in 2018. He stated that each cycle's bottom for Bitcoin is rising, reflecting the asset's gradual maturity, with marginal holders transitioning from retail speculators to professional asset allocators.

However, Leon also acknowledged that Bitcoin may further decline, as past bear markets typically last about 12 to 13 months, while this current one has lasted about 8 months. He pointed out that some traditional bottoming signals have begun to appear, including overbought momentum indicators, about half of Bitcoin holders being in a loss state, long-term holders re-accumulating, and record outflows seen in June's spot Bitcoin ETF. The current issues in the crypto market arise more from the macro level than from the fundamentals.

Bit: Technical trends are gradually stabilizing, and the bottom of Wave C may have formed

Bit stated that in late June, Bitcoin only slightly dropped below the February low, which meets the conditions for forming the bottom of Wave C. If there is no obvious acceleration downwards after the break, and it can continue to hold above the $62,900 - $65,000 range, it will further support the judgment that the ultimate bottom of Wave C has been formed.

According to technical analysis, this adjustment ideally should find a bottom in the $50,000 - $55,000 range; on-chain indicators show that when the price further approaches $47,000, the market will enter a deep value zone. Bitcoin has dropped about 50% from its high, and while it has not yet reached the 70%-80% retracement seen in previous bear markets, BIT believes that the extent of this adjustment is sufficient to mark a cyclical low.

Unlike previous bear markets, the main resistance the current market faces is no longer regulatory risk, but rather a lack of investor enthusiasm and strong inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the average purchase cost of Bitcoin ETF investors stands at about $83,000, with an overall unrealized loss of about 25%, and most investors seem unwilling to confirm losses at the current price levels, which has also limited selling intentions below $58,500.

Glassnode analyst: If Bitcoin fails to effectively break above $66,000, the risk of a short-term peak increases

Glassnode chief research analyst CryptoVizArt stated that the short-term holder cost basis distribution heatmap shows that during Bitcoin's rebound from $57,000, a new round of chips shifted to new buyers in the $62,000 to $65,000 range.

He believes this structure has two sides. On one hand, buyers are actively accumulating during the price rise, potentially forming a new cost basis support, enabling Bitcoin to further test levels of $66,000 and above.

On the other hand, the current accumulation of chips is more concentrated at the tail end of local rebounds. If Bitcoin cannot effectively break above $66,000, the risk of the market forming a short-term peak will increase. $66,000 is a key short-term position for judging the above two scenarios.

Analyst Darkfos: Bitcoin currently forms an important support range between $59,000 to $70,000

Analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin currently forms an important support range between $59,000 to $70,000, one of the most densely defended price zones in Bitcoin's history. More notably, 50% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin has changed hands above $59,000, and this proportion will be even higher if excluding the millions of BTC widely believed to be permanently lost. A tug-of-war between bulls and bears is currently unfolding in this area.

Currently, the short-term holder group is notably active, with behaviors showing a divergence between capitulation and accumulation. Many Bitcoin indicators are now in extreme sell or pessimistic zones, making it difficult to accurately judge the absolute bottom price, while the bottom structure is currently being built.

Trader Doctor Profit: Closed all cryptocurrency short positions and started buying Bitcoin spot again

Famous crypto trader Doctor Profit stated that he has closed all cryptocurrency short positions, including the Bitcoin short positions established in the range of $115,000 to $125,000, another Bitcoin short position established in the range of $79,000 to $82,000, and over 100 altcoin shorts opened in recent months, claiming that these positions have all realized substantial profits.

He also stated that he has re-entered Bitcoin spot at $64,000, marking his first long-term allocation since September 2025. He plans to invest 5% of his planned funds daily for spot purchases while Bitcoin is in the range of $54,000 to $64,000, continuing for a maximum of 20 days; if the price approaches $54,000, he will increase his buying intensity.

Doctor Profit believes that the current market is showing clear "herd behavior": investors who were previously bullish to $150,000 at high prices are now generally waiting for Bitcoin to drop to between $40,000 and $50,000, viewing September or October as the four-year cycle bottom. When a large number of investors simultaneously wait for the same price and timeframe, the market may not operate according to this expectation, which is why he chose to build positions early, judging that the current bottom may appear earlier than the market generally anticipates.

He also cited regulatory clarity, asset tokenization infrastructure, and the progress of institutional adoption as structural reasons for turning to buy, and withdrew his previous prediction of Bitcoin falling to $40,000 to $50,000. However, he still retains his entire S&P 500 short position, believing that the crypto market has undergone a significant re-pricing, while US stock valuations still appear high.