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$65,000 repeatedly fails to hold, a large buy wall near $61,000
Bitcoin dropped to around $62,700 today, breaking through the critical support zone of $63,000 to $64,000 that many traders had been focusing on.
Daniel YU, head of BIT Asset Management, pointed out that the cryptocurrency market failed to maintain the momentum from the rebound following the cooling of the US June CPI. After briefly returning above $65,000 on July 15, Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase due to a concentrated drop in AI and storage sectors, which suppressed overall risk appetite; with the ETF channel deepening the correlation between crypto assets and US stocks, weakness in the Nasdaq easily transmitted to Bitcoin.
Currently, market sentiment in the derivatives market is tense. According to Greeks.live, $1.2 billion worth of BTC options are expiring today, with the maximum pain point at $63,000. Coinglass data shows that there is still a sell order of $18.3 million near $65,000 for Bitcoin, while there is a buying support of $15 million around $61,000 to $62,000.
In addition, trader Killa pointed out a key historical anomaly: Bitcoin has a very high probability of experiencing at least a 5% pullback after the 14th of each month. Out of the last 12 occurrences, 11 showed about a 5% retracement after the 14th. If this pattern continues, it is possible to see $60,000 to $62,000 later this month.
Moreover, the BIT "On Target" weekly report analysis believes that Bitcoin has been in an A-B-C wave descending structure since February, and the C wave decline has now started. Despite the bear market possibly nearing its end, conflicts in Iran have led to a rise in oil prices, and the hawkish stance of newly appointed Fed Chair Waller has intensified inflation rebound risks, resulting in a lack of confidence for market uptrends in the short term. Currently, traders are closely monitoring liquidity support near $62,000; if this area is broken, market focus will shift to a broader liquidation range near $58,000.
Ethereum has not broken through the yearly downtrend line, $1,800 must hold
Ethereum has performed relatively strongly, returning to the $1,750 to $1,900 range and attempting to flip previous resistance into support. Daniel from BIT Asset Management pointed out that Japan has reclassified cryptocurrencies as “financial assets” and reduced related tax burdens. Coupled with a net inflow of ETH spot ETFs on 8 out of the last 10 trading days, this has supported ETH’s relative strength.
Bull trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that ETH has turned $1,750 into support. If it maintains this level, the target looks towards $2,100; CJ also believes that after confirming a retest, bulls may challenge the $2,000 to $2,100 range. However, market divergence remains significant, with Mizer warning that ETH may retreat to $1,600 to $1,650, and Mister Crypto emphasizing that ETH has not yet broken through the yearly downtrend line; the current bounce may only create a lower high, and the short-term focus should still be on whether $1,800 and $1,750 can hold.
Today's highlights:
Native Markets reminds that the USDH official exchange entry will close on July 17
GRVT airdrop registration is now open, with a deadline of July 17
YZY will unlock approximately 20.83 million tokens on July 17, valued at about $6.1 million
deBridge will unlock approximately 618 million tokens on July 17, valued at about $10.1 million
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: BTC, ETH, DRV, XRP, B3
Bitcoin spot ETF: +$79.15 million, continuous net inflow for 3 days
Ethereum spot ETF: -$28.0413 million
Today’s top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap: BDX up 5.6%, STABLE up 5.4%, CRO up 4.1%, PI up 3.5%, MNT up 2.9%.
US stock futures continue to come under pressure, crypto-concept stocks collectively drop, AI strong earnings fail
US stock futures continued to be under pressure during the Asian trading session, with Nasdaq futures briefly falling by about 1.61%, S&P 500 futures down 0.8%, and Dow futures down 0.55%.
BIT night market data shows that in the US night market, the semiconductor sector dropped collectively, with the 3x long semiconductor ETF down 10.38%, Micron down 4.51%, AMD down 3.86% ; the world's hottest storage ETF DRAM dropped 5.43%, and storage stocks Micron and SanDisk fell by 4.58% and 5.64%, respectively, SK Hynix down 1%; tech giants Intel, Nvidia, and others continued to decline, while Apple was the only stock to rise in the night market. Netflix fell over 9% due to its Q3 revenue and profit guidance falling short of expectations; SpaceX fell 4.32% due to its Starship significant test flight being aborted due to some engines failing to ignite. Intuitive Surgical fell nearly 10% even though Q2 results exceeded expectations, as investors expressed concerns about the company's future growth.
On Thursday, US stocks weakened. The selloff was not widespread but concentrated in previously most crowded sectors including AI, semiconductors, and storage.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.3% in one day, cumulative down 22% from its June peak, entering a technical bear market. TSMC’s gross margin in Q2 reached 67.7%, and it raised its capital expenditure guidance to between $60 billion and $64 billion, but the market is concerned about excessive AI investments and prolonged return periods.
Daniel YU from BIT Asset Management believes that concentrated selling in the AI and storage sectors is offsetting the benefits of cooler CPI. The drop in storage stocks originates from threefold pressures: profit-taking after SK Hynix went public, supply concerns triggered by China’s Changxin Storage planning a $8.6 billion IPO, and TSMC’s increased capital expenditures sparking controversy over AI return periods.
具体个股中, SK Hynix ADR fell over 13%, SanDisk fell over 12%, Micron fell over 5%, Western Digital fell over 9%, and Seagate fell 10%. Large tech stocks also generally declined, with Nvidia down 2.40%, Meta down 2.46%, and Google A down 4.44%.
BofA's survey shows that 82% of fund managers believe “going long on global semiconductors” is the most crowded trade globally, with the percentage considering “AI bubble” the biggest tail risk rising from 28% to 45%. Goldman Sachs data also shows that hedge fund exposure to AI theme stocks has fallen to the lowest level this year, and the recent decline appears more like portfolio adjustments rather than a sudden deterioration in fundamentals.
According toBIT US Stocks data, crypto-concept stocks have collectively dropped, with Strategy down 3.53%, STRC down 2.69%, Robinhood down 8.24%, Coinbase down 4.02%, Circle down 7.69%. JPMorgan pointed out that Strategy increased dollar reserves from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, enough to cover about 20 months of preferred stock dividends, which is a positive signal; if reserves increase further, it could alleviate market concerns about being forced to sell Bitcoin. Coinbase gained attention due to the popularity of meme in the Base ecosystem, while Robinhood applied to the SEC to establish an employee investment fund. In terms of mining companies, Bitcoin is under pressure near $62,700 added to the revaluation of AI computing power; short-term pressure remains, with Hut 8 and Bitdeer both dropping over 10%.
Chip chains in Japan and South Korea lead the decline, AI deleveraging continues to spread
The Asia-Pacific market continued the selloff of US tech stocks, with the Japanese stock market leading the declines, the Nikkei 225 index briefly falling over 5%, and major tech stocks such as Tokyo Electron, Advantest, and SoftBank Group under pressure.
Japanese storage giant Kioxia hit the limit down, briefly falling 15.55%, halving its market value from the June peak. Besides the global storage stock dip, the company was also affected by a patent lawsuit loss in the US, resulting in a compensation ruling.
The Korean stock market was closed today due to Constitution Day, but prior to this, the KOSPI had fallen from a peak of 9,385 points to 6,800 points, a decline of over 27%. Korean regulators are tightening single-stock leveraged ETFs, preparing to suspend new listings for stock leveraged ETFs and raising the minimum margin requirement from 10 million won to 30 million won; single stock leveraged trading can now only purchase a maximum of 20 shares at a time, reflecting that regulators are trying to cool down overheated tech trading.
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon criticized the government's inaction against leveraged derivative impacts on the stock market. He pointed out that this year, the KOSPI index has triggered program trading temporary limit mechanisms 37 times, exceeding the full years' record of 26 times during the 2008 global financial crisis.
SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won is attempting to stabilize market expectations, stating that memory chip demand continues to grow exponentially, and the recent declines are more of a pullback from excessive expectations ahead, with long-term demand still supporting SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics' stock prices.
Hong Kong stocks and A-share tech stocks were also dragged down by global AI deleveraging, with Hong Kong stocks of Southern's double long position in Samsung/Hynix plunging over 20%, and Zhizhu struggled with competition pressure and accusations, dropping over 17% at one point.
Next, attention needs to be paid to:
July 17 to 20 Shanghai WAIC World Artificial Intelligence Conference: Focus on domestic large models, robots, AI chips, and AI governance policies. If support signals for the industry are released, it may boost AI applications and Chinese tech stocks; if market concerns about return on investments continue, the benefits may be diminished.
July 18 to 19 San Francisco AGI Summit SF 2026: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Nvidia, and others will be present. If major models or commercial progress are announced, it may alleviate the selloff of AI in US stocks; if it remains focused on long-term visions, the market may continue to question AI capital expenditures.
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