Investment bank William Blair significantly lowered Coinbase's earnings forecasts but maintained its "outperform" rating.

Written by: Jose Antonio Lanz

Translated by: Chopper, Foresight News

Despite the reduction in earnings forecasts, stock prices actually rose. Yesterday, the stock prices of Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) both increased by about 3-4%. Previously, the Chicago-based investment bank William Blair released a report that lowered its revenue and earnings expectations for Coinbase but continued to maintain its "outperform" rating.

William Blair's core viewpoint is that all current bearish factors have already been priced in, and investors should continue to hold Coinbase.

The firm downgraded Coinbase's revenue expectations for 2026 by 12% and for 2027 by 13%; the expectations for EBITDA over the two years were significantly cut by 34%. Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury noted that the company's earnings will hit a bottom in the second half of 2026 and will recover in 2027. They suggest that investors continue to hold Coinbase as spot cryptocurrency trading volumes align with Bitcoin at the bottom.

William Blair predicts that Coinbase’s total trading volume for the year will decline by about 44% to $669 billion; trading volume is expected to rebound by over 32% in 2027.

The firm believes that this cycle has structural differences from 2022. Currently, the establishment of spot Bitcoin ETFs, continuous inflow of institutional funds, and the completion of industry regulatory frameworks are all favorable conditions that did not exist four years ago.

The report also looks favorably on Coinbase's Ethereum Layer 2 network Base, believing it has the potential to become a core growth point for profits, with derivatives and prediction markets further broadening income sources, making the business no longer solely dependent on spot trading. Just the retail derivatives business has an annualized revenue exceeding $200 million in the first quarter.

Not all institutions are optimistic about COIN's short-term outlook. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley lowered the target price for COIN from $170 to $155 and maintained a neutral rating. He stated that the core focus for the second quarter is on prediction markets and perpetual contracts, as the World Cup drives a surge in the size of prediction markets, and he warned that the market will closely watch potential competitive impacts from perpetual contracts in the third quarter.

This year, COIN’s stock price has dropped nearly 30%, while Bitcoin has declined about 26% in the same period. Circle is set to list on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025, with an issue price of $31, and its stock has fallen 20% since the beginning of the year.

“W” Bottom Pattern Taking Shape: John Bollinger Predicts Bitcoin Will Rise Sharply

Technical indicators are also showing optimistic signs. John Bollinger, the inventor of the globally used volatility indicator Bollinger Bands and a seasoned technical analyst, has been consistently indicating since early July that Bitcoin's daily chart is forming a critical bottoming pattern.

On July 2, Bollinger posted on the social platform X, pointing out that the chart is forming a "W" double bottom reversal structure: two lows create a fluctuation range with a rebound in between, and once the price breaks through the resistance level in the middle of the double bottom, a bullish trend will officially establish.

He described the current trend as a standard fractal structure, with a larger pattern encompassing a smaller W bottom, and the same structure can be observed at the weekly level. However, he also objectively pointed out the uncertainty: this bear market has repeatedly shown bullish formations that were ultimately broken by selling pressure.

In a recent update, Bollinger stated that if this W bottom pattern is completed, it will be regarded as a clear signal of a trend reversal; this is also his clearest bullish signal to date, indicating the market is no longer just a short-term rebound.

Earlier this year, Bollinger disclosed that his investment entity holds a bullish position in Bitcoin, aligning his views with his holdings. From a macro technical perspective, the overall bearish trend of Bitcoin has not yet reversed, but the downward momentum is continuously weakening.

Has Bitcoin's Bottom Already Appeared?

On-chain data firm Glassnode's latest weekly report shows that the main selling pressure source in the market for the year—panic selling by long-term holders—peaked and declined two weeks ago. This indicator eliminates on-chain transfer interference and counts the actual selling amount of long-term holders, marking the first downward turning point in this cycle.

The price low in June attracted a large influx of buyers, with Glassnode monitoring different-sized wallets collectively bottoming and hoarding coins. The negative correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar index has deepened further, and its linkage with U.S. stocks continues to weaken, with the market's sensitivity to macro favorable news returning: on Tuesday, inflation data was below expectations, and Bitcoin's gains far outpaced major U.S. stock indices.

For on-chain analysts and Wall Street institutions, one core question remains: the Bitcoin spot market has yet to see sustained buying enough to confirm a reversal.

Derivatives positions continue to close out, long-term selling pressure is gradually weakening, and the panic premium in the options market is narrowing, but new capital has not entered on a large scale. William Blair judges the turning point in the market will arrive in 2027, predicting that after a 44% drop in Coinbase’s trading volume this year, it will rebound by 32% next year.