"Jiang Feng Trading Diary" Issue Five: The greatest enemy of trading is not the loss but the unwillingness to give up a previously unshakeable viewpoint.
Today, let's objectively analyze the current market situation: delve into the current market trends without any bias for or against!
In yesterday's trading diary, Issue Four, I mentioned a short position near Bitcoin 65400, which has now reached the first target around 64500, and I advised everyone to reduce their positions in time! The short position around Ethereum 1910–1937 is still near the average price. The current position is actually quite awkward; it's hard to chase the long, and going against the small trend can easily lead to losses!
First, today's viewpoint: primarily bearish, risk index 🌟🌟🌟🌟☆ (be sure to participate with a light position) The specific logic is explained below; if interested, continue reading:
Bitcoin: Focus on the upper range (65500–65800) for shorts, (66400–67200) to add shorts, with targets around 64500–63500–62000–60000.
Ethereum: Focus on the upper range (1950–1970) for shorts, (1990–2037) to add shorts, with targets around 1900–1850–1750–1700.
For the cautious: re-enter the short positions at additional entry points.
Let’s discuss why the current position is very awkward, but I am more inclined towards bearish logic:
Firstly, both CPI and PPI have decreased, with interest rate hike expectations plummeting. The June CPI data was relatively cold, causing the market’s expectation for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in July to drop from over 40% to 10%. Following this, the PPI data also softened, confirming the narrative of peak inflation. CME FedWatch shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is as high as 89.8%, which has already been fully priced by the market! I interpret this as essentially settled!
Moreover, the escalation of geopolitical tensions means that not falling in the face of adverse conditions indicates strength.
Recently, amidst multiple geopolitical impacts such as the US airstrikes on Iran and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has still maintained critical support at $62000, demonstrating strong market resilience.
In fact, the bulls cannot be blindly optimistic; on-chain data shows that long-term holders are realizing daily losses of up to $280 million, and the proportion of losses and sell-offs has soared from 15% to 43%. The real source of selling pressure in the market comes from those stubborn bulls cutting their losses, and this structural selling pressure is far from over.
The macroeconomic outlook does not mean "immediate monetary easing": although CPI has cooled, the Federal Reserve will not immediately cut rates. The suppression of risk assets in a high-interest environment is ongoing; the current rebound is merely a "expected trade." If subsequent PCE data fluctuates, the bulls could face instant collapse!
Moreover, it is important to note that the price has already risen significantly; the key resistance level is right in front of us. There isn't much room left to chase long positions, and the cost-effectiveness is extremely low! However, there is still considerable room for bears, and a recent hawkish data release is very likely to trigger a significant drop! Therefore, close attention should be paid to the specific pressure situation in the 67000–68000 area, which is the pivot for bulls and bears!
Of course, Jiang Feng's viewpoint leans more towards bearishness. I feel that this rise was a bit too easy, with fundamental changes providing support. I remain skeptical, not sure if it is the habit of contrary thinking that leaves me with such feelings! Therefore, my viewpoint is for reference only; everyone must think independently. If you plan to enter the market, be sure to participate with a light position! If you are a firm bull, I do not recommend chasing now; it is better to wait for the market to pull back to lower support before considering stepping in in batches!
"Jiang Feng Trading Diary" Issue Five: K-lines and indicators are merely the results of prices, not the reasons for prices. What truly determines whether you can remain in the market for the long term is not your predictive ability, but your risk control.
Do you think Bitcoin will break above 68000 first, or drop below 60000 first? Feel free to leave comments for discussion!
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