Bringing you the analysis of Aster market conditions.

First, congratulations to those who went long last week, smoothly reaching 65,000. The market sentiment improved quite a bit after the CPI was announced.

Have you all opened positions in the last two weeks?

I looked through the candlestick charts and indicators, and there are a few interesting data points—the 58,000 mark has been tested three times without breaking. Whales accumulated a whopping 270,000 BTC around the 59K area, which is no small amount. Looking back at historical data from 2013, Bitcoin has a roughly 69% probability of rising in July, with an average increase of 7.6% and a median increase of 8.1%.

Join the live room more often; we regularly share new perspectives and content from new chains.

Friends in the circle often mention a phrase—"The more miserable June is, the more rebound you get in July." I looked at the data, and it really seems to have some truth to it. Hmm.

When I talked last week, the price was about 62,000, and there’s an interesting pattern: historically, whenever June's monthly candle closes bearish, July will definitely rise, with a 100% accuracy—this has happened 5 times, and all 5 times it was correct. This May, the price dropped by 3.4%, and June's drop was approximately 18.5%, perfectly fitting this model. Moreover, in election years, the average return in July is even higher, reaching 10.3%. Even in bear markets of 2018 and 2022, July saw increases of 20.96% and 16.8%, respectively.

Take a look at the chart below; the last green bar on the right is quite eye-catching.

 

 

However, one thing needs to be clarified—we cannot only look at the capital flow of ETF institutions, since the market is not only about ETFs. Major exchanges are applying for licenses, which will inevitably push crypto towards formalization. This is actually a positive for long-term investors, as everyone's positions will benefit in the long run.

But to be frank, the true bottom of this bear market has probably not yet appeared. Bitcoin's market remains volatile, and I classify it into two possible scenarios:

The first scenario is expanded volatility—58,000 to 65,500. A price breakout above 64,000 with a confirmed 4-hour bullish candle will lead to an extension towards 64K to 65.5K. This path requires several conditions to be met simultaneously: significant slowdown of ETF outflows, short positions starting to close, and sustained volume increase. If all three conditions are met, the market can go further.

The second scenario is wide volatility—58,000 to 68,000. The price continuously breaks out above 65,000, then faces resistance and retraces in the 67,000 to 68,000 range. This is a low-probability path, requiring an unexpectedly strong CLARITY bill, positive ETF inflows, and a short squeeze to happen simultaneously, which is not easy.

Today, the information I saw from AI mostly relates to whale movements.

BTC flipped from 52% long to about 52% short, with longs only at 47.6%, a total nominal value of 747 million dollars, tracking 50 wallets. The concentration of short positions is quite high, with the top 3 short wallets accounting for 46.7%.

What does this mean? If BTC suddenly rallies, these shorts could directly become the fuel for a short squeeze. Those who understand will understand.

Ethereum is also quite strong. I checked yesterday, and io has increased significantly. But my feeling is—after Bitcoin rises, funds will flow back into other altcoins.

Last night, a friend talked to me about Hype; I took a look today, and foreigners offered some perspectives. The frenzy brought by Hype is diminishing, with a triple top and declining trading volume, it seems that the PURR climax has ended. Although the ETF charts still maintain strength in the altcoin market overall, there doesn't seem to be enough momentum in the short term to push it back above $80. Neutral to slightly bearish.

I intended to find a case to explain to everyone, but I’ll share that in the live group later.

Looking back at the altcoins over the past two weeks, Robinhood's recent trend has shown some improvement; I wonder if everyone participated. However, the "benefit effect" of Robinhood seems to have lasted just two weeks before moving to another platform.

Robinhood's original intention and core value is actually financial democratization—in terms of the traditional stock market, it is commission-free trading, no minimum account requirements, fractional shares, and a simplified app interface, which greatly reduces the entry barrier for retail investors, especially young and first-time investors. People in the chain are still quite sophisticated, and Robinhood has made it easier for ordinary people to access investment and on-chain opportunities, shifting from "exclusive to institutions and high-net-worth individuals" to "everyone can participate."

NOXA is the main launch platform for Meme coins on the Robinhood Chain and has launched around 60,000 tokens, but it has now suspended operations. The problem lies in token dilution and ecological deterioration—infinite launches led to a "tragedy of the commons," where quality projects are drowned out, and the market is seriously fragmented. A triggering event was the brief downtime caused by Cloudflare issues around July 12, which sparked FUD and rumors of exit, significantly impacting trading volume.

The Robinhood Chain did succeed in attracting traffic through Meme in its early days, but in the long run, it still needs RWA, DeFi combinations, and AI agents to be sustainable. Meme is just an appetizer, not the main course.

Returning to the secondary market, I have been focusing on a few altcoins lately—AKE, BSB, EVAA, which are relatively strong. Personally, I am still exploring LAB, another strange token that I have added to my watchlist for a few days.

Does anyone have questions about altcoins? New and old friends can receive a 10% cash back reward—now binding through this link will automatically become 10%, and previous old friends will also synchronize to 10%. Starting from June, the cashback amount for future users has been officially increased to 10%. https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2

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New User Benefits: Aster Registration Tutorial + Exclusive 0 Fee Rate Surprise

Let me briefly introduce—Aster is a multi-chain decentralized perpetual contract exchange that supports high-leverage trading, cross-chain operations, and a low-fee structure. Note: Cryptocurrency investment carries risks; please participate rationally.

Step 1: Connect Wallet, done in a few minutes

Aster DEX does not require traditional registration; you can get started by connecting a wallet. Prepare MetaMask, WalletConnect, or a similar multi-chain wallet, then add the networks supported by Aster (such as BNB Chain, Ethereum, etc.).

Step 2: Access the platform

Open your browser and go to the official website: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2, click "Connect Wallet," and select wallet authorization.

By the way, you can grab a few tens of USDT with AKE to try it out; the liquidity is quite good right now. Just aim for a small profit, don't be greedy.

Step 3: Deposit funds and start exploring

After connecting for the first time, deposit funds (such as USDT), which you can transfer from a centralized exchange. Then you can check the dashboard, view balances, and choose a trading mode (Spot or Perps).

Entry Advice: Start testing the connection with a small amount of transfer; beginners should start with lower leverage to familiarize themselves with the interface. The perpetual contract fees are already low, and with the funding rate mechanism, the actual costs can be minimized.

How to Participate: Look for tasks under the "Promotions" tab after connecting, and complete your first trade. The rewards will be automatically refunded.

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Since you've already joined, let’s talk about the recent market and my feelings about it, practice some insights.

Recently, Aster has also launched a USDT-USDC swap activity, so if you need it, you can check it out. Then today there’s also a trading activity you can participate in. Recently heated chain leader projects are basically all doing activities on Aster.

Finally, let’s talk about some real practical information.

The market has finally entered a rebound phase, but whether the rebound can be sustained needs further observation. The overall sentiment in the market will still take time to recover. For US stocks, the current focus is still on TSMC’s Q2 earnings report and conference call.

This morning, CXMT was quite popular. The time in Taiwan is from 14:00 to 15:30, corresponding to around 2 AM Eastern Time. The craze for CXMT reminds me of SPX—my 180 dropped to 150...

This is what Nvidia has been doing all along: winning hearts and broadening the ecosystem. The current caliber, including their previous assistance with financing Neocloud vendors, follows the same logic.

To speak candidly, investment is trading; there’s no such thing as win-win, only zero-sum games. Any trade requires a counterparty. If someone tells you it can be win-win, it’s because they got in first and hope you will carry them. So be cautious when seeing others call trades on any platform.

Investment, trading, gaming, and gambling are fundamentally no different; they are all competitive games. All those who promote win-win partnerships eventually get proven to be scammers.

Have your own investment standards and remember to set a stop loss. If you want to participate, my advice is to look at several places, study the thought processes, then see at what position to enter. This depends on yourself—because opportunities aren't purchased randomly.

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