Today, let's talk about two important matters, we will go through them one by one.

Event One: There are rumors in the community that MicroStrategy might announce cryptocurrency sales tonight. How should we put this? This company used to be one of the most bullish in the crypto sphere, consistently buying more and more, but recently it has suddenly changed its tune and started selling off. Although the market has anticipated this, and there will definitely be selling pressure, it’s not expected to cause a crash like last time when 32 BTC were sold off. However, there will inevitably be a psychological impact in the short term. Tonight from 7 PM to 9 PM, keep a close eye on our news alerts; any changes will be reported immediately.

Event Two: Tomorrow (Tuesday) at 8:30 PM, the United States will release the CPI data. The market expects it to record 3.8, which is lower than the previous value of 4.2%. What does this have to do with us? Quite a lot—if the release is higher than expected, the market will have to rethink the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, and risk assets like BTC usually take a hit, likely causing significant volatility.

Speaking of the moment the CPI is released, I must point out a pitfall in advance—candlestick patterns often jump around chaotically, and the first spike is often deceptive. If you’re just watching the candlestick charts, you will likely get misled. So tonight and tomorrow night, let’s avoid the flashy details; we will focus on one thing: Major Orders.

There are three key things to remember:
1. Where the big orders are placed—Where are the main players betting their chips?
2. Whether to withdraw orders when prices move towards them—Is it a genuine bid or a false bid?
3. Who are the counterparties after the transaction, and does the price respond?—Is it real money or just shifting from hand to hand?

In simpler terms, use the perspective of a PRO member to watch whether the main players are collecting, retreating, or setting traps for us.

---

Now let’s get into the key content and clarify what big orders really are.

Regular followers should know that I’ve mentioned this feature frequently in my live streams and videos. Tracking major orders means monitoring the limit orders, cancellations, and transaction conditions from large players at exchanges. This is where you set it up. The rectangular blocks seen on the candlestick chart represent these—red represents sell orders, and green represents buy orders.

Hovering the mouse over a major order reveals the order price, quantity, and how long it has been open, as clear as checking a household registry.

A friend just asked how to identify order cancellations, which is very simple—look at the decoy orders, and the shade of the color is the code:
Light-colored means it is either still open and not executed, or has been canceled, belonging to the "fake-out" category.
Dark-colored indicates that the transaction has been completed; it is "real action".

For instance, this light red order is a sell order that is still open and may be canceled at any time, so don’t rush into it.

How to use big orders? Two straightforward approaches.

Usage One: Focus on exceptionally large orders.

These are massive orders that far exceed normal levels—those BTC single orders that are over 50 million, 80 million, or even over 100 million dollars. This level of order is usually backed by institutions or giant whales, and their actions generally have a clear "buy up, sell down" effect.

For example, the $303 million short order placed on July 2 kept the price stuck at 60,800 with no upward movement. After the transaction, prices dropped continuously. Looking at the $114 million long order placed on July 3, prices surged high after the transaction was completed. So remember this mantra: Big orders from main players, buy up, sell down, reliable over time. Usage Two: Observe the order wall.

This one is a bit more nuanced, but the logic is very simple; just remember these two sentences:

For buy orders: Prices fall before transaction (they have to drop to buy), and after the transaction, they rebound upward.
For sell orders: Prices rise before transaction (they have to go up to sell), and after the transaction, they create downward pressure on prices.

Ethereum's batch of repurchase walls is a typical example; before the transaction, prices drop, and after the transaction, they rise, a textbook-level movement.

However! Don’t celebrate too soon; the main players can behave "unethically".

If you observe enough data, you will find that some big orders completely don’t follow the rules. Just wait, I need to take a screenshot—like these buy orders, prices did not rise after execution, but continued to drop instead.

At this point, we need to bring out our other two tools, or should I say two assistive artifacts:
One is large transactions, and the other is custom fund flow indicators.

Why do big orders fail? Ultimately, there is one reason: the opposing side is too aggressive.

Take this batch of $229 million buy orders as an example, where 181 million was ultimately executed with a net buy. Normally, such a large buy order should support prices, right? But what happened? The support failed, and the price dropped all the way down to around 62434.9. Why? Because at the time of the main players' transactions, the active sell orders were crashing in, and they were much more powerful than the main buy orders. This created the situation—large limit sell orders were passively executed, active sell orders dominated = insufficient buy support, and naturally, prices couldn’t withstand.

Hence, this leads to a key conclusion: after large orders are executed, don’t just look at how much the main players bought. It’s essential to observe whether the initiative lies with the buyers or sellers.

As for how to use the fund flow indicators, I previously shared the source code in the "Live Q&A Growth Community", which tracks the market’s active transaction situations. Friends who need it can search for the community name. I will also sync it again later in the PRO group.

---

Let me show you two typical cases of failures.

"Failed" massive orders: On the night of the 6th, the main player opened a long position of $210 million, but the price fell instead. Upon checking the fund flow indicator, the main player limited buy of 3356 BTC, but the active sell orders exceeded active buy orders by 5373 BTC—the selling pressure was far greater than the main buy order amount, so this large order was pointless, and the price continued to drop.

This $89 million buy order had the same script; after execution, prices continued to fall, for the exact same reason: active sell orders dominated, and the main players were unable to support the price.

Regarding tomorrow night’s CPI, how should we respond? Two-pronged approach.

One leg: Observe the order placements, with a focus on the direction of major orders across multiple platforms.

Still the same old sayings:
For buy orders: Look bearish before execution, bullish afterward.
For sell orders: Look bullish before execution, bearish afterward.

What’s the purpose of observing the orders? To determine what direction and price points the main players are betting on.

For example, this batch of BTC buy orders from the weekend shows that from the order placements, they were betting on the range of $63,588 to $63,467. At that time, the price was above the buy zone, so in the short term, it seemed more likely to drop first, confirm the transactions, and then look for a rebound.

However, most of those orders were canceled later... The current market has confirmed the function of this batch of repurchase orders—before the transaction, it indeed dropped.

Second leg: Look at the transactions, focusing on the strength of the counterparty's transactions.

Limit buy orders executed, but active sell orders are more = Support fails, risk of price decline.
Limit sell orders executed, but active buy orders are more = Frenzied buying, potential for forced shorts.

The buy orders from this morning and the repurchase sell orders from the 6th are both vivid examples.

Thus, when watching major orders, order placements, cancellations, and final transactions are all equally important.

---

To summarize, let’s pay attention to three aspects for tomorrow night’s CPI:

1. Major order placements → Predict the market's direction of rise or fall.
2. Major transactions → Predict whether the market is reversing or continuing.
3. Counterparty strength → Determine whether the main players are truly taking action or being acted upon.

That’s everything I wanted to discuss with everyone during tonight's live stream. If you have any questions, feel free to join our Live Room Q&A Growth Community, and we will continue to chat and answer your questions.

Currently, we have live streams every day, so feel free to keep following AiCoin friends! Make an early reservation 👇

https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/live/list?tab=upcoming

Join our community, let’s discuss together and become stronger!

Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh

 

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。