Yesterday, the cryptocurrency market welcomed a significant rise in trading volume, with BTC closing with a large bullish candle on the daily chart. This market rally started approximately two days earlier than originally expected. Previously, it was anticipated that the market would likely complete adjustments on Tuesday and Wednesday, and initiate a new round of attacks on Thursday. However, funds chose to enter the market early, indicating that bullish sentiment is rapidly heating up.

The reasons driving this round of increase mainly come from two aspects:

On one hand, the latest CPI data from the United States further strengthens the market's judgment on the cooling of interest rate hike expectations, and risk assets overall are experiencing emotional recovery; on the other hand, funds related to the World Cup are gradually exiting, and some funds are flowing back into the cryptocurrency market, providing liquidity support for the market.

In contrast, while recent geopolitical events have not completely subsided, the market's sensitivity has noticeably decreased, and the marginal impact on the market is weakening. Funds are more focused on macro expectations and the market's own rhythm, with a clear increase in the willingness to take an early position.

Due to the early entrance of funds, the technical adjustments that should have been completed have not fully unfolded, instead leading to a direct surge in volume. After the emergence of a large bullish candle, the market did not urgently retract but is consolidating at high levels, reflecting certain characteristics of accumulation. Overall, bulls still retain the momentum to push for higher positions.

However, it is necessary to note that currently, the short cycles such as 30 minutes, 1 hour, and 2 hours have shown divergence, indicating a certain need for short-term correction, while the 8-hour and 12-hour still maintain a bullish structure, and the medium-term trend has not been broken.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: High-level volatility, favoring short positions at high and long positions at low.

Although BTC lagged slightly behind ETH during the initiation phase yesterday, it subsequently completed about 2 hours of catch-up, bringing its overall trend back to the mainstream rhythm.

Moving forward, the most noteworthy aspect in the market is whether the 4-hour candlestick can effectively hold above 65,000 USD with a real body.

• If it breaks through 65,300 USD with volume and effectively holds, it means the market is likely to open up new upside space, further challenging the 65,800 and even 66,500 areas.

• If it only briefly breaks through on low volume and quickly falls back below 64,300 USD, then one must be cautious of forming a typical "false breakout" that induces buying, and a quick pullback may occur in the short term.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour MACD has formed a golden cross, with both lines continuing to diverge upwards, indicating that medium-term bullish momentum remains dominant. However, as divergence in the short cycles continues to accumulate, the cost-effectiveness of chasing gains has started to decline.

Therefore, the current more reasonable strategy is still:

• Look for buying opportunities on key support pullbacks;

• After hitting important resistance areas, do not blindly chase highs, wait for confirmation before deciding on direction.

Key Positions

Support: 64,000-64,300, 63,600

Resistance: 65,300, 65,800, 66,500

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This article is originally published by [Huiying Community] and represents personal opinions only. Due to a certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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