1. Macroeconomic and Traditional Financial Markets

1. US stock performance becomes differentiated again: Technology sector experiences strong fluctuations, all three major indices close down

The US stock market weakened across the board, but there was significant differentiation among sectors and individual stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly fell by 0.26% to close at 52498.64 points, showing relative strength; the S&P 500 dropped by 0.79% to 7515.34 points; the Nasdaq Composite saw its decline widen to 1.55%, closing at 25873.18 points, with growth tech stocks being the major drag, and small-cap Russell 2000 also experiencing pressure. The semiconductor sector exhibited extreme reversal behavior; SK Hynix, which completed a $26.5 billion large ADR listing, had an initial price of $149, surged 12.8% on the first day to close at $168.01, but plummeted 9.3% on the second trading day, almost completely reversing the gains from the first day, which also led to a sharp decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 4.78%. Disparities among individual stocks intensified; AI hardware stocks fell broadly, with Nvidia dropping 3.52% in a single day, and AMD, ARM, and Micron all declining by over 4%; Apple outperformed with an independent market rally, rising 0.71% to hit a new historical high. Microsoft and Amazon slightly closed in the green, while Google, Meta, and Palantir continued to decline, as funds persistently broke down AI industry chain valuations and began to avoid companies with long payback periods on computational investments.

2. Middle East ceasefire agreement collapses: Oil prices surge by 9.3%, gold oddly declines

The ceasefire agreement officially collapsed this week after Iranian missile attacks on commercial oil tankers and military bases, leading the US to announce the termination of the ceasefire and initiate retaliatory strikes. Brent crude oil prices accordingly surged by 9.3%, rising from $69.56 to $76.01 per barrel, as market concerns about energy supply disruptions intensified. Overall, crude oil prices rose approximately 4.56% over the week, but on a 30-day basis, it still fell by 18.14%, currently reflecting a short-term rebound driven by geopolitical risks.

In stark contrast, spot gold did not trigger traditional safe-haven buying and instead fell 1.0% to $4119 per ounce, opening at $4174.96 and closing at $4120.35, a weekly decline of 1.31%. The dollar index opened at 99.54 and closed at 100.97, with a weekly increase of about 1.44%. Safe-haven funds did not all flow into gold but were diversely allocated among various defensive currencies, with traders placing more importance on yield expectations under a hawkish stance from central banks rather than war premiums.

3. The Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes are hawkish, significantly raising the probability of interest rate hikes

The minutes of the June FOMC meeting released on July 8 indicated that the committee voted 11 to 1 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, but there were significant internal disagreements. The minutes noted that both core and overall inflation remained above the 2% target, largely due to the impact of tariffs, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz supply chain, and strong demand for certain goods and services; officials significantly removed explicit forward guidance, and the inclination to raise rates is rising. US Treasury bonds exhibited a steepening bear market structure: the 10-year yield rose 9 basis points to 4.56%, and the 30-year yield increased by 7 basis points, breaking through the critical 5.06% mark.

CME FedWatch data shows that the market estimates the probability of maintaining rates in July at 64.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point increase is 35.8%; the implied probability of at least one rate hike in September has risen to 72.1%. Over the past month, the probability of maintaining current rates dropped from 32.5% to 14.6%, with policy expectations shifting from "holding" to "raising by 25-50 basis points." The VIX has concurrently fallen to 15.03, just at the 10.7% mark of the 252-day rolling percentile, indicating that equity market risk pricing is significantly low and does not fully align with the trends of oil prices, long-end rates, and geopolitical uncertainties.

2. Crypto Market

1. Market overview: BTC slightly recovers, divergence among altcoins intensifies

This week, BTC increased slightly by 0.2%, oscillating between a low of $61306 and a high of $64700, closing near $64000 over the weekend; ETH performed relatively well, rising by 1.2%, maintaining a range between $1786 and $1805, with the ETH/BTC ratio climbing by 0.93%. Market sentiment improved slightly from last week's 23 (extreme fear) to 28 (fear), but still remains in a panic zone. The total cryptocurrency market cap increased slightly by 0.3%, with a 1.2% rise when excluding BTC and ETH, but a broader altcoin market excluding the top ten tokens fell by 1.6%, with gains concentrated in leading assets.

2. ETF funds: BTC ETF ends eight weeks of net outflow, institutional funds stabilize

This week, the spot BTC ETF ended eight consecutive weeks of net outflow, recording a net inflow of $197.4 million; the single-day net inflow on July 10 was $90.44 million, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $86.83 million and VanEck HODL increasing by $3.61 million. The total assets net value of all spot BTC ETFs reached $77.42 billion. The spot ETH ETF also recorded a net inflow of $84.4 million, with demand rebounding simultaneously.

The stabilization of ETF funds is one of the important reasons BTC managed to stabilize around $61000 and return to around $64000. However, from the price performance, ETF inflows have not yet been able to push BTC to break $65000 in one go, with institutional buying appearing more as a stop-gap measure and recovery rather than a full return. The maximum drawdown of fund flows is currently fixed at 18.98%, with the current drawdown at 18.32%; the short-term strong and weak boundary for BTC remains at $65000, requiring continuous stability and volume increase to further raise the rebound target.

3. On-chain data: Limited increase in stablecoins, Robinhood Chain's TVL surpasses $132 million in its first week

The total volume of the stablecoin market has temporarily ceased its ongoing contraction, but the increase is limited and insufficient to indicate that the cryptocurrency market has entered a clear liquidity expansion phase. USDT's market share remains high at 58.98%, USDC's market value reached $73.417 billion, with a 7-day growth of 0.51%; the supply of USDe decreased by about 11.2% over the week, while the tokenized currency market product BUIDL grew by about 21%, with overall funds still favoring high-certainty dollar instruments.

In two weeks of its launch, Robinhood Chain’s TVL surpassed $132 million, with daily active users reaching a historic high of 217,000, with on-chain liquidity majorly contributed by Morpho and Uniswap. Notably, the surge in TVL was not driven by meme coin trading but rather by Ethena injecting about $50 million in stablecoins into Morpho's USDG pool, directly pushing daily TVL growth over 160%. The meme coin CASHCAT has brought real trading volume and user activity to the chain, but the volume of tokenized real asset businesses is currently only about $12.8 million, with the core track still in a slow start phase.

4. Industry narrative: Strategy sells BTC in bulk for the first time, accelerating institutional-level infrastructure layout

This week, Strategy announced the sale of 3588 BTC for $216 million to pay for the second-quarter dividends of STRF, STRE, STRK, STRD, and the complete monthly dividend of STRC in June, marking the first large-scale sale following a symbolic sale of 32 coins earlier; as of July 6, the BTC reserve stood at 843775 coins, with a dollar reserve of $2.55 billion. STRC has remained below par for the seventh consecutive week, around $87, with weekly trading volume at $453 million, accounting for 79.8% of the total trading volume of priority securities for Bitcoin reserves, and Strive’s SATA accounting for 8.9%. Saylor explained that if BTC appreciates at an annual rate exceeding 3.3%, it can indefinitely support STRC dividends, even if BTC has a yearly rise of 0%, there are still 31 years of dividend funds.

Regarding institutional-level infrastructure, Swift, in collaboration with 17 global banks, launched a blockchain-based shared ledger, initiating a tokenized deposit pilot program, marking a substantial step in the construction of institutional-level settlement infrastructure; South Korea’s Toss is partnering with Optimism to pilot infrastructure for a Korean Won-pegged stablecoin, accelerating the layout of compliant stablecoins in the Asia-Pacific region; Gauntlet completed a $125 million financing led by SBI Holdings, aimed at expanding institutional-level DeFi treasury operations, reflecting the continued investment of institutional capital in the on-chain asset management sector.

This article is merely a market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment risks are high, and investors should fully evaluate their risk tolerance and strictly adhere to risk control before trading.

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