Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)
The previous article discussed the World Cup quarter-final predictions, where 6 AIs unanimously favored France, Spain, England, and Argentina to advance. After four matches, with four semi-final tickets, none of the AIs made a wrong bet.
France advanced the easiest; although Mbappé missed a penalty, he soon provided an assist and a goal, helping France eliminate Morocco 2:0. Spain once again staged a last-minute victory, with Merino scoring in the 88th minute to defeat Belgium 2:1. The other two matches went into extra time: Bellingham scored twice, helping England come back to beat Norway 2:1; Argentina, meanwhile, managed to score two goals in the final moments of extra time, winning 3:1 against Switzerland despite being a man down.
Similarly, to more effectively participate in the semi-final prediction market, I asked ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qianwen, and Grok—the six AI models—once again to predict the win/loss/draw outcomes, scores, and whether the matches would go into extra time or penalty shootouts.
However, in the semi-finals, the predictions from the 6 AIs showed significant divergence. In the match between France and Spain, 5 AIs favored France to advance, all predicting a score of 2:1; the biggest disagreement occurred in the match between England and Argentina, where 3 AIs supported England while the other 3 backed Argentina. There was no consensus on whether the match would go into extra time or even penalties.
5 AIs unanimously predict France will beat Spain 2:1, only Gemini favors Spain to advance
The first semi-final match of this World Cup is France against Spain, scheduled for July 15 at 3 AM Beijing time. According to predict.fun data, the probability of France winning in regular time is 42%; the draw probability is 30%; the probability of Spain winning is 30%. Moreover, including extra time and penalties, France’s probability of advancing is 60%, while Spain’s is 40%.
These are the two most defensively stable teams in this World Cup. France has not conceded a goal since entering the knockout stage, while Spain has only been breached once throughout the tournament. However, the ways both teams achieve victories are completely different. Spain relies on ball possession and pressing in the front to control the pace, whereas France excels in quick transitions, utilizing the speed and individual ability of their forwards to create threats directly.
Among the 6 AIs, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qianwen all chose France to advance, and all 5 models predicted the score to be France 2:1 Spain. Although Spain may have more ball possession, the space left behind by their full-backs pushing forward could become a liability. Facing Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olysee, France doesn’t need long periods of siege; just by capitalizing on a few transition opportunities, they can directly change the course of the game.
ChatGPT’s judgment on the match’s progress is more specific, believing that France will first score through a counterattack, Spain will equalize in the second half, then continue to press forward, only to be caught in transition by France for the last-minute victory. Claude, while acknowledging the possibility of the match dragging into extra time, ultimately chose France to win 2:1 in regular time, like Grok, DeepSeek, and Qianwen.
The only AI that chose Spain is Gemini, predicting that the teams would draw 1:1 after 120 minutes, with Spain advancing through a penalty shootout. Gemini's judgment does not focus on whether Spain can dominate the attack against France but believes that Spain can reduce the number of transitions in the match through sustained ball control, minimizing the counterattack threats that France excels at.
As long as Spain doesn’t concede an early goal, there’s a chance the match can settle into a rhythm they are familiar with. Although France boasts explosive players like Mbappé and Dembélé, it will be challenging to gain much open space against Spain’s midfield control; likewise, France has not conceded a goal in the knockout stage, making it equally difficult for Spain to score consecutively in a static attack. Therefore, Gemini's analysis suggests that the match may likely maintain a low score for a long time, with each side seizing an opportunity and then stalemating to a penalty shootout.
Thus, whether Gemini can be the only AI that correctly predicted Spain's advancement becomes another significant point of interest in this match. In contrast, the disagreement in the other semi-final is much larger—England vs. Argentina, where the 6 AIs couldn't even reach a consensus on the direction of advancement.
Predictions for England and Argentina to advance are evenly split, with disagreement on whether to enter extra time or penalties
The second semi-final match of this World Cup is England against Argentina, scheduled for July 16 at 3 AM Beijing time. According to predict.fun data, the probability of England winning in regular time is 37%; the draw probability is 33%; the probability of Argentina winning is 32%. Additionally, including extra time and penalties, England’s probability of advancing is 55%, while Argentina’s is 45%.
Compared to France and Spain, this match is more challenging to judge. Both teams played a full 120 minutes in the previous round. England overturned Norway in extra time, while Argentina only defeated Switzerland in the final moments of extra time. Physical consumption, core player form, and match rhythm could all affect the final result.
For the predictions from the 6 AI models, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qianwen support England; ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude favor Argentina.
The side supporting England pays more attention to physical confrontations, set pieces, and impact. Both Grok and DeepSeek predict England will win 2:1 in regular time, while Qianwen is even more aggressive, predicting a 2:0 score. England's current attack heavily relies on Kane and Bellingham, with the two accounting for the vast majority of the team’s goals, and Bellingham repeatedly stepping up to solve problems in the knockout rounds. In the view of these models, England can utilize high pressing, crosses, and set pieces to maintain pressure, aiming to finish the match within 90 minutes.
Argentina's supporters, on the other hand, trust more in knockout stage experience. Gemini predicts Argentina will win 2:1 in regular time, believing Messi's playmaking and clutch abilities remain influential in matches of this caliber; Claude's judgment is more conservative, suggesting that both sides are likely to fall into a low-scoring tug-of-war, with a possibility of a 1:1 draw in regular time, and the chance of the match dragging into extra time is significantly higher compared to the first match, ultimately favoring Argentina to advance; ChatGPT predicts the match will go directly to penalties, with a 1:1 score in regular time, and neither side daring to press too hard in extra time, finally predicting Argentina will eliminate England 4:3 thanks to Emiliano Martínez and their richer penalty shootout experience.
In the last round, the AIs were highly consistent in predicting the semi-finalists and got them all right. In the semi-finals, the prediction results become a "consensus match" and a "divergence match." Can France break through Spain’s ball possession system, and will England and Argentina battle into a penalty shootout? This time, whose predictions should be more trusted?
Recommended reading:
“In predicting World Cup knockout rounds, the performance of different AIs varies greatly?”
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