On July 11, 2026, several pieces of news that originally belonged to different sections suddenly converged on the same market in the cryptocurrency space: on one hand, Robinhood announced that its AI agent, which has been serving over 70,000 accounts in the stock and options arena, would officially connect to crypto trading, allowing eligible U.S. retail investors to entrust their "ordering rights" to an algorithm and set risk boundaries; on the other hand, the on-chain settlement asset reserves pegged to the U.S. dollar on exchanges continued to rise, having accumulated an increase of approximately $35 billion, or about 61%, since the beginning of 2025, with the latest total around $93 billion, of which Binance accounted for about $53 billion, raising its market share from 54% to approximately 57%, further concentrating ammunition in the leading platforms; at the same time, the U.S.-Iran conflict pushed the Strait of Hormuz to the brink of tension, with the number of crossing vessels dropping from 30 to 22 this Thursday, as Iran rejected negotiations with the U.S., alongside Qatar's mediating efforts, leading to heightened uncertainty regarding oil and gas transportation and global macro risk preferences. The signals from the funding and trading infrastructure indicate "cash is on hand, tools are sharper," while the signals from geopolitics and energy indicate "tail risks are thickening": this sets the stage for the later theme of "bullish on liquidity, bearish on risk"—with ample capital and AI-driven structural innovation supporting it, the overall risk preference of risk assets such as BTC and ETH will fluctuate sharply in the short term along with conflict news, but the current price center remains fundamentally supported.

Robinhood Brings AI to Crypto

As geopolitical conflict raises macro uncertainties, another quiet revolution is taking place on the trading front. Between 2025 and 2026, Robinhood quietly built a team of "machine brokers" in its U.S. stock and options business—over 70,000 AI agent accounts responsible for placing orders, adjusting positions, and controlling holdings on behalf of retail investors. On July 11, the platform announced the direct integration of this functionality into crypto assets, allowing eligible users in its U.S. product line to connect their BTC and ETH exposure to AI agents, jointly developing strategies and risk limits through parameter settings, which the latter can then execute automatically in a 24/7 market.

This may seem like merely an expansion of functionality, but it changes the trading structure of the crypto market: in the past, retail sentiment and speed determined the rhythm of chasing upswings and cutting losses; now it has become "humans set boundaries, machines amplify trends." AI agents can continuously increase or decrease positions during amplified volatility and mechanically follow price breakthroughs, which can further magnify the inherently sensitive price momentum of cryptocurrencies and, when combined with the automated trading network across U.S. stocks, options, and crypto assets, funds can flow algorithmically across multiple assets within the same account system. Tom Lee's concept of "the same market" begins to take on a tangible form in front-end trading actions. The question is whether funds are willing to entrust decision-making power to this system. On the same day, news of the restructuring of OpenAI's safety team and the departure of its original safety system head, Johannes Heidecke, which will be overseen by Mia Glaese, added a layer of uncertainty to this narrative of AI invading finance: when the safety and governance framework of the core models is itself in a state of adjustment, the tolerance of regulators and large capital for "AI trading" remains undetermined, and the speed of penetration for Robinhood-style agents will directly decide whether BTC and ETH prices are influenced more by machine-led trend trading or continue to be tightened by humans balancing risk and trust.

Signals of $93 Billion Stablecoin Entry

If the spread of AI agents rewrites trading logic, the funding side has already provided its answer in advance. As of July 11, 2026, the reserves of U.S. dollar-pegged tokens used for pricing and settlement across major exchanges stand at approximately $93 billion, an increase of about $35 billion, or 61%, from the beginning of 2025. This means that over the past year and a half, the "cash positions" in the market have not been completely transformed into spot purchases, but rather continue to accumulate within the trading systems: part consists of off-exchange capital that has migrated into the exchange in advance waiting for the right moment, and part are defensive capital not fully exiting after selling risk assets. Against the backdrop of the U.S.-Iran conflict driving up energy and transportation costs, along with the oscillating macro risk preference, this $93 billion appears more like a mobile force that can pivot at any time—able to serve as a safe position in times of panic and quickly morph into active purchasing of BTC and ETH when sentiment reverses.

What’s more noteworthy is that the command over this "mobile force" is becoming further concentrated. Currently, Binance alone accounts for about $53 billion of the relevant reserves, with its market share rising from approximately 54% in early 2025 to about 57%. The strengthening of funding capacity implies that it is gaining pricing power in spot matching, leveraged margin, and cross-platform arbitrage: when the vast majority of the gunpowder is centralized at a single hub, premiums, discounts, and market depth are more likely to form consensus around that platform; on the flip side, it also amplifies platform risk—any compliance, technical, or geopolitical event that touches this hub will directly impact the liquidity structure and short-term volatility of BTC and ETH. In other words, this $93 billion is not a static inventory but rather a pool of ammunition for future spot purchases, leveraged margins, and complex arbitrage strategies, and its high concentration and gradual thickening will determine whether the crypto market behaves with high-leverage chasing and cutting or maintains a more restrained volatility between risk and liquidity amid forthcoming macro fluctuations.

Tensions in Hormuz and Concerns Over Energy Premiums

As this $93 billion "ammunition pool" is constantly scanned by AI trading systems, the U.S.-Iran confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz injects new variables into the model. The latest shipping data shows that the vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz dropped from 30 to 22 on Thursday, no longer just a news headline, but directly inscribed into energy and transportation price curves: if this globally critical oil and liquefied natural gas export route is obstructed, both spot and forward contracts will require higher geopolitical risk premiums, exacerbating upward transportation cost expectations and creating a new round of input inflation pressure. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson openly rejected U.S. negotiation requests, allowing only Qatari officials to discuss ceasefire, effectively sending the market the signal that "the tensions are not a one-day dispute," thus reinforcing expectations for the persistence of energy premiums.

From a macro chain perspective, rising energy premiums and inflation expectations will drive nominal and real interest rates to stay high or even rise temporarily, increasing the relative attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets, making funds more willing to embrace the U.S. dollar index and short-duration interest rate products in reallocating assets. Under this shock, high-volatility assets like BTC and ETH often see their weight in diversified portfolios compressed first, and AI agents in risk budget models would also view the "Hormuz tension—inflation expectations—real interest rates" as a negative causal chain, triggering a migration from spot and high-leverage positions to dollar-pegged assets. Specifically, on-chain, dollar-denominated tokens such as USDT and various short-duration yield products tend to gain relative advantages during the dual volatility of commodities and interest rates—they cater to the demand for U.S. dollar security while allowing that $93 billion of funds in exchanges to temporarily settle in a lower-volatility safe-haven pattern, waiting for next macro directional clarity to decide whether to increase positions in BTC and ETH or maintain defensive positions.

Funds Game Under the Vision of the Same Market

Tom Lee's statement about the "same market" on July 11 provides a more penetrating framework for those positions flowing back to dollar-pegged assets. His judgment is straightforward: as blockchain infrastructure expands, asset tokenization progresses, and the various digital trading tools become widespread, stocks, bonds, and on-chain assets will not remain in two separate worlds for long but will be tied together by the same account systems, liquidity pools, and risk factors. Robinhood's integration of AI agents into stocks and options between 2025 and 2026, accumulating over 70,000 accounts, and now extending this functionality to crypto trading on July 11 is essentially bringing the vision of this "same market" to the practical interface of retail: the same app, the same margin, the same risk control parameters, facilitated by AI, traversing between U.S. stock positions and on-chain positions.

From the funding side, the reserves of dollar-pegged tokens at exchanges have accumulated an increase of approximately $35 billion or 61% since early 2025, totaling about $93 billion as of now, with Binance alone holding approximately $53 billion, accounting for about 57%, meaning a large block of unified liquidity priced in dollars is forming on-chain, highly concentrated in leading platforms. Combined with the AI agent trading functions of traditional brokers like Robinhood, this fund pool can quickly flow back to U.S. stocks and bonds through tokenized assets or rapidly transition to directional bets on BTC and ETH or defensive allocations in dollar assets during significant disturbances in energy prices, interest rates, and geopolitical situations. The U.S.-Iran conflict has heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, with the number of crossing vessels dwindling from 30 to 22; in Tom Lee's "same market," such energy risks are no longer just absorbed by oil service stocks and freight rate indices but will also be simultaneously reflected in bond yields, demand for dollar-pegged tokens, and the volatility of mainstream on-chain assets, enhancing cross-asset correlations and forcing trading structures to shift from single-market bets to a holistic repricing of risks around the same fund pool.

Conclusion and Post-Trading Observations

At this juncture of July 11, 2026, AI-driven automated trading and high U.S. dollar-pegged token reserves together provide a structural liquidity bottom for on-chain and on-ground markets: Robinhood has accumulated over 70,000 AI agent accounts in traditional assets and has now opened a crypto trading interface, allowing quantitative funds in the "same market" to seamlessly migrate between stocks, options, and BTC/ETH; the overall reserves of dollar-pegged tokens across exchanges stand at about $93 billion, with Binance holding about $53 billion and a share rising to approximately 57%, reserving ample ammunition for future spot purchases and leverage structures. However, the drop in vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz from 30 to 22 amid U.S.-Iran tensions, along with Iran's refusal to negotiate with the U.S. and rising uncertainty about energy and transportation costs, indicates that this liquidity bottom cannot smooth out the periodic decline in risk appetite and may indeed amplify BTC and ETH volatility during disturbances in oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. The upcoming post-trading observations consist of three layers: the first layer is the AI trading side: whether the number of AI agent accounts and their win rates continue to increase, especially regarding the profit and loss structure after integrating into crypto, will directly determine whether algorithmic funds are willing to expand on-chain exposure; the second layer is the net inflow and outflow of dollar-pegged tokens, if existing high reserves start to see sustained net inflows, it will indicate a new round of spot bullishness and leverage reopening, whereas if it turns to net outflows, it implies a contraction of the "unified fund pool"; the third layer is whether the sensitivity of BTC/ETH relative to energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields increases—under Tom Lee's framework of the "same market," this will determine whether they are viewed as hedging tools against oil, gas, and interest rates or regarded as high Beta assets needing to reduce positions. The greatest uncertainty still lies in AI safety and regulatory attitudes—OpenAI's safety department restructuring and governance disputes remain unresolved—and the evolutionary path of the U.S.-Iran conflict, as these two threads will together determine whether global funds continue to press the risk exposure of a unified market onto mainstream on-chain assets or temporarily flow back to U.S. dollar cash and short-duration rate assets in a narrower defensive region.

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