Since peaking in October 2025, this group of "treasury companies," confirmed to hold Bitcoin in public disclosures and categorized by on-chain analytics firms as a unified holding group, is experiencing a counterintuitive cycle: According to aggregated statistics from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the total market value of global Bitcoin treasury companies has fallen from about $396 billion to the current approximately $272 billion, with over $100 billion evaporated on paper; meanwhile, their on-chain Bitcoin positions have steadily increased from about 953,000 coins to approximately 1.14 million coins, accumulating about 187,000 coins. The market value curve is downward, while the holding curve is upward, creating an increasingly obvious divergence. More subtly, since May 2026, this accumulation curve has noticeably slowed, with total holdings essentially plateauing near 1.14 million coins, nearly stop accumulating, yet still maintaining historical highs. From this temporal snapshot, whether these high-positioned firms still adhere to the narrative of long-term allocation or are nearing a critical point that could turn into selling pressure becomes the most crucial suspense surrounding Bitcoin treasury companies.
$100 Billion Market Value Evaporated, Treasury Holdings Increased Dramatically
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost’s statistics, around October 2025, the total market value of the Bitcoin treasury company asset portfolio was close to $396 billion. Following this, amid the backdrop of Bitcoin price corrections, it has continuously declined, reaching about $272 billion on July 11, 2026, thereby evaporating more than $100 billion on paper. This market value curve almost synchronizes with the Bitcoin price cycle but does not exhibit the typical characteristic of a "collective reduction in treasury holdings."
During the same time, the holding data aggregated by Darkfost shows a contrary picture: The Bitcoin disclosed by treasury companies on their balance sheets increased from about 953,000 coins to about 1.14 million coins, cumulatively increasing by about 187,000 coins. That is to say, on one side, the market value continuously shrinks, while on the other side, Bitcoin positions keep expanding, creating a stark contrast between declining market value and increasing holdings. Amid this divergence, treasury companies chose to exchange more Bitcoin for greater price exposure, indicating that they voluntarily bound themselves tighter, even when faced with evident pressure, which itself constitutes an important signal for understanding the risk appetite and strategic orientation of treasury companies.
Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Who is Holding the Prices On-Chain?
From an on-chain perspective, these treasury companies are the most typical long-term holders: they publicly confirm holding Bitcoin in their financial reports, categorizing it as a long-term asset, with corresponding coins typically residing in the companies' own controlled addresses or custodial addresses. The frequency of transfers in and out is far lower than that of exchanges and short-term addresses, resembling “long-term chips that will not be easily moved.” On-chain analytics firms like CryptoQuant match disclosed data from public companies with known business addresses and custodial clusters to form a relatively clear “Bitcoin treasury company pool,” allowing the market to see the real position changes of such publicly exposed entities on-chain, rather than merely focusing on price and stock price curves.
Furthermore, because of the transparency of holdings and identifiable identities, the on-chain addresses of treasury companies are viewed by the market as an important window into traditional capital and publicly listed companies' attitudes towards Bitcoin. Since October 2025, this group’s total market value has fallen from about $396 billion to around $272 billion, but the aggregated statistics show that the Bitcoin they hold increased from approximately 953,000 coins to about 1.14 million coins, clearly depicting the divergence of market value decline and holding increase on-chain. For other institutional investors and retail investors, this discrepancy of “stock prices under pressure but on-chain continuing to hold” serves both as a demonstration and a psychological pressure: on one hand, it reinforces the impression that “treasury companies are still supporting Bitcoin”; on the other hand, when the accumulation has noticeably slowed down after May 2026 and total holdings have plateaued around 1.14 million coins, everyone will begin to speculate whether this batch of deeply locked long-term chips will continue to hold out or could potentially translate into tangible selling variables at some future point.
Increasing Holdings Amid Declines: Belief in Accumulation or Resignation?
In terms of results, this paints a highly tense picture: from October 2025 to May 2026, the total market value of global Bitcoin treasury companies fell from approximately $396 billion to about $272 billion, evaporating over $100 billion, while, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost's on-chain and market value aggregation statistics, this batch of treasury companies absorbed approximately 187,000 more Bitcoins, increasing holdings from about 953,000 coins to about 1.14 million coins. From a narrative perspective, the most intuitive explanation is the faith in “long-term allocation” — viewing this price correction as an opportunity to expand positions as “cheap chips,” betting on future price recovery, while simultaneously seeing Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat asset and traditional equity exposure, thus increasing stakes in "hard assets" on-chain as stock prices fall.
However, continuously accumulating amid sustained pressure on prices does not necessarily mean that every treasury company has made an active and aggressive contrary decision; there could be more passive elements involved. Many companies' asset allocations rely on established investment policies and long-term board resolutions; once a strategy is set, it’s challenging to make frequent adjustments over a few quarters. When transferred to on-chain, this translates to increased Bitcoin holdings at the aggregated address level mechanically according to plan, even when market value drops or stock prices are pressured. More crucially, at this stage, the information we possess only includes the scaled holdings and total market value after unified aggregation, while public information has not disclosed the specific sources of the funds for each company's accumulation — whether they originate from bond issuance, stock expansions, or operational cash flow, and there are no quantifiable standards to define the so-called “significantly undervalued” range as mentioned by analysts. In this information asymmetry, simplifying this phase of “increasing holdings amid declines” into a single motivation would be irresponsible; a more prudent stance acknowledges that multiple drivers exist behind treasury behaviors, and we can only maintain restrained and cautious judgments on their motives based on limited on-chain and market value evidence.
Accumulation Comes to a Halt, a Potential Selling Window for Treasury Companies?
From the on-chain pace, this group of “long-term buyers” has clearly slowed down. Darkfost pointed out that since May 2026, the rate at which treasury companies accumulate Bitcoin has significantly decelerated, nearly stagnating, with total aggregate holdings hovering around 1.14 million coins, no longer consistently climbing as they did from late 2025 to early 2026. By the snapshot of July 11, 2026, the market value is still hovering around the low range of about $272 billion while holdings remain high, creating a stalemate of "locked chips and pressured prices." Current publicly available data only suffices to prove the deceleration of accumulation momentum and shows no evidence that these treasury companies have collectively and significantly shifted towards reduction.
The halt of accumulation will itself be interpreted by the market as a change in attitude: it might mean that some companies are facing capital constraints, making it harder to continue “buying the dip,” or it could indicate an overall decrease in risk appetite, or a shift in management's price expectations from optimistic to cautious. These explanations all hold validity, but without more granular disclosures, they remain at the level of possibilities. Once this group of former “net buyers” is perceived as potentially transitioning from continuous accumulation to “holding steady or even beginning to reduce,” market sentiment could easily interpret this change as the opening of a future selling window: expectations of reductions may amplify existing price pressure, while if they maintain high positions in a flat pattern, it could conversely alleviate panic about immediate liquidation, transforming it into a more moderate but continually monitored mid-term risk signal.
What to Watch Next: How Will Treasury Chips Respond?
Returning to the reality of the situation: as of July 11, 2026, the total market value of treasury companies is still stuck around $272 billion, with a significant gap from the high of about $396 billion in October 2025; at the same time, their Bitcoin holdings maintain at a high level of around 1.14 million coins, highly concentrated, yet have not significantly increased since May 2026. What truly deserves attention going forward is not the emotional “will they sell off?” but three specific trajectories on-chain: first, whether the total Bitcoin holdings of treasury companies will continue to hover around 1.14 million coins, restart accumulation, bury themselves deeper, or hit a sustained net reduction inflection point; second, the relationship between these changes and Bitcoin price and market value performance — whether the market interprets it as “confidence returning” or “hedge withdrawal”; third, whether there are structural net outflow signals at the aggregated address cluster level. At the current data snapshot, the question of whether treasury companies will sell off massively remains just a risk scenario analysis; any judgment of “turning of shares” must be answered by subsequent verifiable on-chain holding paths rather than relying solely on price fluctuations and subjective panic.
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