Author: Li Jia

The AI market enters a high plateau of fluctuation, can technology stocks still be purchased in the second half of the year? Goldman Sachs' answer remains: continue to remain optimistic, but shift from "buying sectors" to "selecting companies."

Goldman Sachs pointed out in its latest report that there are currently no signs of a peak in the AI-driven technology cycle, and signals indicating supply exceeding demand or a slowdown in technological evolution have not yet appeared. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that this cycle is expected to become one of the largest and longest-lasting technology upswings in history. After entering July, related stocks experienced profit-taking, which the report characterizes as a healthy adjustment after a rapid rise in stock prices, rather than a reversal of the trend.

In terms of stock selection strategy, the report proposes three core themes: first, continue to be bullish on AI server and data center-related hardware stocks; second, in niche areas where supply and demand have tightened, focus more on detailed assessments of individual stock risk and return; third, when market risk appetite is declining, pay attention to software and IT service stocks that are leveraging the AI wave to explore new business opportunities, serving as defensive allocations.

AI Cycle Has Not Yet Peaked, Adjustments Are Healthy Retracements

Goldman Sachs maintains an overall bullish view on the Asian AI supply chain.

The report indicates that to judge whether the technology cycle has reached its end, one mainly observes two signals: first, semiconductors and electronic components beginning to shift from demand exceeding supply to supply exceeding demand; second, a slowdown in technological innovation, with industry competition returning to price-driven rather than performance-driven. Currently, neither of these signals has appeared.

Goldman Sachs believes that AI infrastructure investment is still in an expansion phase, and new applications such as physical AI and edge AI will replace AI servers and data center construction, further extending this round of technology cycles. Therefore, recent profit-taking in related stocks should be viewed as a healthy adjustment after a rapid rise, rather than a fundamental reversal.

Meanwhile, the tight supply and demand is gradually spreading from popular sectors such as storage and optical communication to more semiconductor segments, and the scope of industry prosperity is still expanding.

Investment Focus in the Second Half: Shift from Sector Selection to Stock Picking

As many AI beneficiary sectors undergo significant increases, Goldman Sachs believes that the investment logic in the second half of the year will gradually shift from "buying the right industry" to "selecting the right company."

The report suggests that companies worth paying attention to usually possess several common characteristics: able to directly benefit from product price increases; having strong capacity for expansion, allowing them to capture profit opportunities brought by tight supply and demand; the growth potential of AI business has not yet been fully reflected in market valuations; or having unique catalytic factors that the market has not adequately priced.

In other words, after an overall uplift in valuations, future excess returns will more likely come from the company's own competitiveness rather than industry beta.

Defensive Approach Shifts to AI Applications, Rather Than Traditional Defensive Sectors

In addition to continuing to allocate AI hardware, Goldman Sachs has proposed a new defensive strategy.

The report suggests that when market risk appetite decreases, rather than avoiding the technology sector, it is better to focus on software, IT services, and internet companies that are leveraging AI to create new business opportunities. Goldman Sachs points out that generative AI is generating new corporate service demands such as AI consulting, data infrastructure construction, and cybersecurity, and some software and IT service companies may benefit from AI tools improving development efficiency and reducing costs.

Meanwhile, the previous market concerns about AI undermining content value are easing. Goldman Sachs believes that AI is more likely to become a new tool for enhancing commercialization efficiency and improving operational efficiency, rather than simply replacing existing businesses, and therefore the growth logic of some internet and digital content companies is improving.

Overall, Goldman Sachs believes that in the second half of the year, Asian technology investments should still adhere to the main theme of AI, but the allocation strategy needs to be more balanced: on the offensive side, continue to focus on the AI infrastructure and hardware supply chains that are improving, while on the defensive side, pay attention to software and IT service companies that can leverage AI to create new demand and improve efficiency, balancing growth and defensiveness in an increasingly volatile market environment.

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