Global funds significantly entered the US stock market before May 2026, and stagnated starting in June.

The previous articles discussed the outflow of funds from US tech stocks, the reduction of positions by hedge funds, and retail investors buying the dip. Now there is a new set of more macro data that ties these events together.

According to EPFR and Goldman Sachs data, the inflow of global funds into US stocks has been very strong since 2026. Until May, overseas funds almost accelerated their entry into the US stock market, with a cumulative inflow approaching 2.4% AUM, significantly higher than the historical average from 2002 to 2025, and already reached a peak within the historical range for the same period.

In simpler terms, in the first five months of this year, global funds bought US stocks aggressively, and there is strong financial support behind this round of US stock market rise.

But the key change occurred in June. The continuous upward flow of funds did not continue to surge after June; instead, it turned from rapid growth to stagnation, and even showed a slight decline.

This can also be viewed alongside the earlier sets of data. On one side is the significant inflow of global funds into US stocks since the beginning of the year, on the other side, after June, funds in the technology sector changed from a net inflow of over 20 billion USD to a net outflow of 15 billion USD, with hedge funds and institutional accounts exhibiting extreme net selling close to -4 standard deviations in the US information technology sector.

So the current situation is more like the sentiment in US stocks regarding AI and semiconductors is still heated, but the most core professional funds in this sector have begun to withdraw.

Of course, this still does not mean that semiconductors or AI will experience a significant decline, as the inflow of overseas funds has not completely disappeared, and retail investors are buying more aggressively when the index declines. But it also indicates that the upcoming market may rely more on the earnings season in July.

If the leading tech companies' earnings reports continue to be strong, and AI capital expenditures continue to be realized, professional funds may return. But if the earnings reports cannot provide sufficiently strong profits and guidance, the risks may increase moving forward.

There are approximately two weeks left until the earnings season.

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