The average XRP trader is deep in the red, and analytics firm Santiment says that extreme pain is exactly what tends to come before a bounce. In freshly released data, the firm reported that XRP Ledger average trading returns have slumped to their lowest levels in years, leaving short-term holders in a rare loss zone.

Santiment’s reading shows the average active XRP trader down about 47% over a 30-day window. The firm’s market value-to-realized value (MVRV) gauge, a metric that compares an asset’s market price to the average price at which its coins last traded, is at its weakest level since December 2020. Historically, MVRV troughs of that depth have marked points of maximum trader frustration rather than the start of deeper collapses.

“Fear and frustration among traders have reached rare extremes that have historically preceded strong rebounds,” Santiment analysts recently stated on the same gauge, adding that the logic is clear, i.e. when nearly every recent buyer is underwater and sentiment turns uniformly bearish, the pool of potential sellers thins, and prices often move opposite the crowd’s expectations.

Beyond raw returns, Santiment also tracks the balance of bullish and bearish commentary across social platforms, and that gauge has also flipped toward pessimism. In its late-May snapshot, the firm logged a bullish-to- bearish ratio of roughly 1.1-to-1 and weighted sentiment near multi-month lows (the kind of capitulation reading that, in past cycles, has aligned with local bottoms).

In fact, Bitcoin.com News reported on that late-May setup, when the same 47% average-loss figure and December-2020 MVRV low first flashed as a “historic dip-buy” signal. The recurrence of those conditions into July suggests XRP has spent weeks grinding through a zone of trader exhaustion rather than staging the rebound the data hints at.

That said, weak sentiment is a necessary condition for a relief rally, not a guarantee of one. Santiment has repeatedly cautioned that “weak MVRV readings alone do not guarantee a reversal,” and that any durable recovery would likely depend on renewed exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, clearer U.S. regulation and fresh adoption catalysts tied to Ripple, the company most associated with the token.

Some people see room for a relief move toward the $1.40 range if buyers defend current support and momentum indicators begin to turn, while others warn that a broader market wobble could drag XRP lower before any bounce takes hold.

A long-running fight over U.S. market-structure legislation and the pace of spot XRP ETF approvals has also continued to shape sentiment, and Santiment stresses that a headline-driven pop would likely produce a relief rally rather than a genuine trend change until the wider market steadies. In other words, the data says the fuel for a bounce is in place but XRP still needs a spark.

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