On July 3, 2026, derivatives and on-chain signals collided within the same time window: According to data disclosed by Greeks.live macro researcher Adam, approximately 31,000 BTC options (with a notional value of about 1.9 billion USD) and 135,000 ETH options (with a notional value of about 230 million USD) concentrated to expire on that day, totaling approximately 2.13 billion USD. The maximum pain points settled at the sensitive ranges of 61,000 USD and 1,650 USD, which have a “magnetic effect,” while the options Put Call Ratio showed a distinct divergence—BTC was only 0.7, leaning towards a long structure, while ETH rose to 1.29, reflecting heavier selling or hedging demand. In contrast to the long-short game on the options front, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that Bitcoin's net UTXO supply ratio re-entered the buying zone from late June to early July, marking the first instance of this signal since November 2022. Historically, this has often been associated with phase bottoms and subsequent rebounds, but he cautioned that a single indicator is insufficient to confirm that a bottom has been formed. One aspect is the short-term volatility risk possibly influenced by the maximum pain price around the delivery date, while the long-term chip structure provides a potential bottom signal. This article will outline the boundaries of long-short risks and possible reversal opportunities surrounding the concentrated delivery window on July 3.
21 Billion Options Expire: BTC and ETH Deliver Together
The scale of this concentrated delivery on July 3 was directly magnified to the market level: Greeks.live macro researcher Adam reported that approximately 31,000 BTC options expired, with a notional value of about 1.9 billion USD; ETH options amounted to about 135,000, with a notional value of about 230 million USD, bringing the total to about 2.13 billion USD. This scale alone was sufficient to become the core variable for price discovery and position rebalancing on that day, rather than being background noise that could be “digested” by daily transactions.
Structurally, the maximum pain points for BTC and ETH were concentrated at 61,000 USD and 1,650 USD, respectively. These two price levels constituted the “equilibrium points” where long and short losses are minimized. Historical experience indicates that maximum pain prices often exert a certain “magnetic effect” on spot prices around the delivery date. July 3 coincided with the regular options delivery time window, which is inherently a period of concentrated transactions and volatility. When the two major assets had concentrated expiry on the same date, with a cumulative notional value exceeding 2.13 billion USD, related hedging, rolling and closing operations were more easily reflected on the market. If the price deviated from the maximum pain points or unilateral volatility accelerated, this concentrated expiry could potentially amplify into market-wide correlated fluctuations through liquidity and sentiment transmission.
Long BTC, Short ETH: Emotional Divergence Intensified
Within the same delivery window, the options structure itself has already provided a clear long-short comparison. Greeks.live data shows that the BTC options Put Call Ratio was 0.7, below 1, indicating that the proportion of call options in the current expiry positions did not significantly fall behind, overall leaning towards a bullish layout; conversely, the ETH options Put Call Ratio reached as high as 1.29, with a heavier proportion of put positions, reflecting that funding is more inclined towards conservative or bearish hedging demand regarding Ethereum. On this concentrated expiry day of July 3, the Put Call Ratios for BTC and ETH were in opposite directions, and the enormous notional value further amplified the emotional misalignment of long and short bets.
This divergence largely exposes the differences in fund preferences and fundamental expectations: the options positions indicate that funds are more willing to bear upside risk exposure on BTC, while on ETH, they tend to defend potential declines by increasing bearish positions, placing the two major assets in different roles of “offense vs defense.” However, it should be emphasized that the Put Call Ratio is merely a snapshot of the position structure at a particular moment; below 1 is usually interpreted as relatively bullish, and above 1 as relatively bearish. Yet, this does not automatically equate to a future price必然上涨 or 下跌. It still needs to be combined with various other multidimensional information such as the price level, the dynamics near the maximum pain price, the distribution of overall positions, and on-chain signals to provide a more constrained directional judgment on the current emotional differentiation of long BTC and short ETH.
Maximum Pain Price: The Price Magnet of 61000 and 1650
In the concentrated delivery on July 3, Greeks.live data indicated that the maximum pain price for BTC was 61,000 USD and for ETH was 1,650 USD. The so-called “maximum pain price” refers to the price range in all outstanding options where the overall losses for both sides are minimized; essentially, it is the settlement zone sellers most wish to see. Historical experience shows that spot prices often exhibit a “magnetic effect” on this price level around the delivery date, because whether it’s the option sellers actively adjusting positions or buyers attempting to recover time value losses, both tend to engage in dynamics around this central region, thereby increasing the probability of prices gravitating towards that area.
Applying this concept to the current structure provides a clearer picture of where funding power may concentrate: for BTC, around 61,000 USD is the “comfort zone” for option sellers. If the spot price is significantly above this level, sellers have more incentive to push back towards the center through selling pressure and hedging. Conversely, if it is significantly below, bulls might try to mitigate losses by pushing prices up as time value erodes quickly. The same applies to ETH near 1,650 USD; however, in the context of a bearish leaning Put Call Ratio, the willingness of bears to defend this price level may be stronger. It is important to emphasize that the maximum pain price is merely the focus of funding positions, not a definitive “target price” at which prices will converge. Macroeconomic sentiment, liquidity shocks from spot and perpetual markets, and the behavior of long-term on-chain funding may ultimately cause prices to settle far from the maximum pain level.
UTXO Buying Signal Reappears: Is the Bottom Really Near?
From an on-chain perspective, a rare signal has emerged behind the current long-short game. The net UTXO supply ratio of Bitcoin essentially depicts the behavior of long-term holders and liquidity of chips. Historically, when it drops into the so-called “buying zone,” it often corresponds to a stage where on-chain chips are tending to be locked in and off-market long-term funds become more actively involved. According to observations by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., this indicator re-entered the buying zone from late June to early July 2026, marking its first occurrence since November 2022. This timing is notably rare, and past experience shows that this signal has repeatedly appeared near Bitcoin phase bottoms and subsequent rebound cycles.
However, whether this can simply be analogized to past “bottom-catching templates,” Axel Adler Jr. takes a more cautious stance. He emphasized that the current net UTXO supply ratio returning to the buying zone merely indicates that the market “may be approaching a phase bottom,” but is insufficient to independently confirm that a bottom has been formed; further cooperation of price, volume, and on-chain variables is still required. In other words, while the overlap of the options expiry window and the on-chain long-term buying signal temporally offers material for bulls to structure a narrative of “the bottom is near,” it remains premature to regard it as evidence that “the bottom has been locked in” before critical confirming signals are complete.
Long-Short Game Undecided: How to Interpret This Window
From a data perspective, the approximately 2.13 billion USD in concentrated expirations for BTC and ETH options means that derivative positions must be significantly repriced in the short term: on the BTC side, centered around a Put Call Ratio of 0.7 and a bullish structure with a maximum pain price of 61,000 USD, while on the ETH side, there is a bearish structure centered around a Put Call Ratio of 1.29 and a maximum pain price near 1,650 USD. The overlap creates local pressure in pushing prices to express themselves around the expiration date. Concurrently, the net UTXO supply ratio of Bitcoin re-entered the buying zone from late June to early July, signaling marginal changes in the behavior of long-term holders. Still, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. has clearly stated that this signal is statistically linked to historical phase bottoms, but is insufficient to independently confirm that this round's bottom has been established. In other words, the options expiry results in trading-grade volatility on a daily or weekly basis, while the net UTXO supply ratio reflects a redistribution process of chips over months or even longer time frames. These two signals serve entirely different decision-making time scales: the former concerns short-term trading windows, while the latter is closer to medium- and long-term allocation references. Under the current information set, the data only suggests that the market is in a tug-of-war phase of long and short expectation divergence, with misaligned time dimensions, and is insufficient to support any deterministic judgment about the future price path. The more rational strategy is to view this concentrated expiry as a starting point to observe whether price behavior and on-chain indicators can resonate positively, and consciously control the certainty expectations of directional bets until new evidence emerges.
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