The start of July has performed better than expected, with the market rebounding for two consecutive days, and overall sentiment is noticeably warming up. In particular, Ethereum directly hit the daily resistance level yesterday, with gains nearly double that of Bitcoin, mainly driven by the rapid rise of the BTC/ETH exchange rate by about 3%, short-term funds are beginning to tilt towards Ethereum.
However, it should be noted that this rise over the past two days has barely experienced any significant pullback. Currently, most cycles below 12 hours have run to high levels, and some technical indicators are beginning to show bearish divergence, indicating a strong demand for short-term pullback.
The 12-hour chart has printed three consecutive bullish candles, and Ethereum has shown a series of large bullish candles. The rapid warming of sentiment in a short time actually requires vigilance against the main forces taking advantage of the rise to achieve high-level profit-taking. If the price continues to rise today, more attention should be paid to a potential return after the rise or even a significant volume washout trend.
A truly healthy rise should not only be a continuous surge but should involve repeated oscillation to complete the exchange of chips, allowing incremental funds to continue to flow in. Rallying without adjustments often struggles to sustain, and once the divergence structure forms, it is more likely to become a trap for buying.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Today's strategy remains focused on shorting on the rise.
From a technical perspective, the EMA moving average system still maintains a bearish arrangement, and the MACD continues to operate below the zero line, indicating that the medium to long-term bearish structure has not changed, currently more related to technical recovery after an excessive drop.
$60,600 has become the most important dividing line of strength for today:
Staying above $60,600, short-term bulls still have room for further attack;
Falling below $60,600, the market is likely to re-enter a weak oscillation phase.
The resistance area above $61,500-$62,000 remains the most important pressure zone in this round of rebound, and until there is an effective breakthrough and a stable volume above it, the current rise should still be defined as a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.
Additionally, last night's 1-hour and 2-hour charts have not fully adjusted; if prices continue to be forced up today, it is easier to form a high-level divergence, providing better opportunities for shorting in the short term.
Overall, the upward space is narrowing, and the risk of pullback is increasing. In terms of operations, it is advised to patiently wait for confirmation at key positions, not to blindly chase highs, avoid chasing during a rapid rise, and instead look for support on pullbacks.
Support Levels: $60,600, $60,000, $59,700
Resistance Levels: $61,500-$62,000, $62,700
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